???? 據(jù)油田技術(shù)2月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，Rystad能源公司的石油市場(chǎng)負(fù)責(zé)人約納爾·托豪根（Bjornar Tonhaugen）表示：“一系列的悲觀事件確實(shí)對(duì)油價(jià)造成沉重打擊，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)大幅下跌，使近期的很大一部分漲幅化為泡影。”
????最近，價(jià)格一直在上漲，在存在疫情情況下，價(jià)格已經(jīng)達(dá)到如此高的水平，以至于當(dāng)看跌消息來(lái)襲時(shí)，價(jià)格受到了沉重打擊。目前，不僅交易員們都在尋求規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，煉油廠的停產(chǎn)也會(huì)減少需求，而且有跡象表明歐佩克+計(jì)劃從4月份開(kāi)始增加供應(yīng)。
????過(guò)去幾天，德克薩斯州的石油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，局勢(shì)不容樂(lè)觀。煉油廠關(guān)閉的規(guī)模要大于原油供應(yīng)的損失。當(dāng)煉油廠減少加工原油時(shí)，意味著需求受到了沖擊，因?yàn)樵褪浅善酚瓦M(jìn)入零售市場(chǎng)之前的直接需求因素。
????原油產(chǎn)量有可能下降，但如果煉油廠削減加工能力的幅度更大，這種不平衡自然會(huì)推低價(jià)格。
????美國(guó)汽油價(jià)格相對(duì)于原油價(jià)格繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，在減少美國(guó)過(guò)剩的石油產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存方面可能得到意想不到的幫助，為今年晚些時(shí)候可能非常緊張的供應(yīng)市場(chǎng)鋪平道路。
????有報(bào)道稱(chēng)歐佩克計(jì)劃從4月份開(kāi)始增加產(chǎn)量，交易員們今天也紛紛調(diào)整價(jià)格水平。這是一種預(yù)料之中的發(fā)展，也被油價(jià)證明是合理的。自疫情開(kāi)始以來(lái)，該聯(lián)盟承擔(dān)了大部分市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)。當(dāng)其它所有人都受益于它幫助平衡的價(jià)格水平時(shí)，該聯(lián)盟還能克制供應(yīng)多久?
????歐佩克成員國(guó)開(kāi)始享受其努力的成果，以比最樂(lè)觀的市場(chǎng)觀察人士所預(yù)期的更快的速度讓油價(jià)重回健康水平。
????事實(shí)上，在即將到來(lái)的歐佩克+會(huì)議上，當(dāng)報(bào)告以官方信息出現(xiàn)時(shí)，油價(jià)可能進(jìn)一步下跌。最引人注目的是沙特阿拉伯每天額外削減100萬(wàn)桶石油的決定是否將繼續(xù)。如果額外減產(chǎn)取消的話，價(jià)格除了下跌別無(wú)選擇。”
????Rystad Energy頁(yè)巖研究負(fù)責(zé)人Artem Abramov對(duì)美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)發(fā)表了評(píng)論:“一開(kāi)始，德克薩斯州的氣溫比往常略低，現(xiàn)在卻變成了美國(guó)能源行業(yè)前所未有的冬季危機(jī)。盡管這種具有挑戰(zhàn)性的環(huán)境可能會(huì)在未來(lái)幾天持續(xù)下去，但我們相信，最糟糕的時(shí)期已經(jīng)過(guò)去。該行業(yè)目前正在為快速?gòu)?fù)蘇做準(zhǔn)備，同時(shí)仍在評(píng)估極端天氣造成的損害，并維持人員和作業(yè)的安全。雖然此次危機(jī)可能對(duì)全州范圍內(nèi)的石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期影響,但我們需要記住,美國(guó)石油和天然氣行業(yè)在極端天氣或市場(chǎng)事件發(fā)生之后，有著異常良好的恢復(fù)速度的記錄。”
????德州米德蘭的氣溫自2月10日以來(lái)就沒(méi)有超過(guò)0攝氏度，并在2月14日至15日的晚上達(dá)到了多年來(lái)最低的零下18攝氏度。
????二疊紀(jì)盆地的生產(chǎn)商和中游公司一直愿意承擔(dān)潛在的水或液態(tài)烴凍結(jié)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)檫@類(lèi)事件發(fā)生的可能性非常低，甚至可以忽略不計(jì)。這導(dǎo)致了該地區(qū)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施與北方各州截然不同——例如，與北達(dá)科他州或懷俄明州相比，德州的低壓收集管道很少埋到地下。
????油價(jià)上漲主要是由于煉油廠緊急關(guān)閉和安全燃除造成的，但在過(guò)去4-5天內(nèi)，一些液化天然氣終端和西德克薩斯的天然氣加工廠的天然氣燃除量也顯著增加。估計(jì)，在過(guò)去三天里，二疊紀(jì)盆地的平均石油產(chǎn)量為200多萬(wàn)桶/天，但一些產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)恢復(fù)。
????假設(shè)天氣從下周開(kāi)始好轉(zhuǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)在2月的最后一周和3月的第一周會(huì)迅速恢復(fù)。估計(jì)此次嚴(yán)寒危機(jī)對(duì)二疊紀(jì)石油產(chǎn)量的影響將在2月接近66萬(wàn)桶/天，在3月大約16萬(wàn)桶/天，不過(guò)4月將發(fā)生好轉(zhuǎn)。
????全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)的影響(包括德州、俄克拉何馬州和新墨西哥州的減產(chǎn))比二疊紀(jì)盆地單獨(dú)的影響高出30-40%，但現(xiàn)在給出這個(gè)數(shù)字的最終估計(jì)還為時(shí)過(guò)早。二疊紀(jì)盆地2月份的平均石油產(chǎn)量可能僅為370萬(wàn)桶/天，低于去年疫情減產(chǎn)期間406萬(wàn)桶/天的最低記錄。
????在天然氣方面，2月份損失了超過(guò)18億立方英尺/天的二疊紀(jì)天然氣預(yù)計(jì)3月份的產(chǎn)量將低約3億立方英尺/天。這意味著二疊紀(jì)干氣產(chǎn)量也將低于2020年減產(chǎn)期的最低水平。據(jù)估計(jì)，全國(guó)范圍內(nèi)二疊紀(jì)地區(qū)的干氣受影響的產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到36億立方英尺/天，而二疊紀(jì)地區(qū)的減產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量幾乎都來(lái)自德克薩斯州(中部和北部地區(qū))。”
????王佳晶 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)
????原文如下：
????Rystad Energy analysts comment on oil prices and US crude output
????Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets, Bjornar Tonhaugen, has commented on today's oil prices:
????"A bearish cocktail of market events is really hitting prices hard this Friday, causing a steep drop that strips oil of a good part of it recent gains.
????Prices have been inflated recently and for a good reason but they had reached so high - under a pandemic status quo – levels, that when the bearish news hit, they hit hard.
????It’s not only that traders look to avert risk in the end of the week, it is also refinery outages that strip demand, and indications that OPEC+ is planning to increase its supply from April.
????Oil production in Texas has seen significant volumes cut over the last days, but the net effect is surprisingly bearish.
????Refinery shut-downs are larger volumetrically than oil supply losses, at least for some days. When refineries reduce processing crude that means demand is taking a hit, as for crude that is the immediate demand factor before the refined product reaches the retail market.
????Production can fall as it may, but if refineries cut their processing capacity to an even larger extent, the imbalance naturally pushes prices lower.
????Gasoline prices in the US continue to strengthen relative to crude oil prices, and the products markets can get an unexpected help in reducing the excess products inventories in the US – paving the way for potential very tight products markets later in the year.
????Traders also rushed to correct price levels today as reports emerge that OPEC+ aims to open its production taps a bit more from April.
????This is an expected development and justified by oil prices. For how long could the alliance – which has taken most of the market burden since the pandemic started – show restraint when everyone else benefits from the price levels it helped create?
????OPEC members aim, and rightly so, to start enjoying the fruit of their efforts to bring healthy price levels back to the market, faster than even the most optimistic market observers would expect.
????In fact the dip in price can dig in further when reports take an official character in the coming OPEC+ meeting. The elephant in the room is Saudi Arabia’s 1 million bpd extra cuts gift. If the gift is snatched back, prices cannot do else but decline."
????Rystad Energy's Head of Shale Research, Artem Abramov, has commented on US oil production:
????"What started as a modest colder-than-usual period in Texas has now turned into an unprecedented winter crisis for the US energy industry.
????While this challenging environment is likely to persist in the next few days, we believe that the worst period is behind us. The industry is now preparing for a rapid recovery, while still evaluating the damage caused by the extreme weather and maintaining the safety of people and operations.
????There is some talk that the current events could have a prolonged impact on statewide oil and gas production, however we need to remember that the US oil and gas industry has an exceptionally good track record for getting back up to speed quickly after extreme weather or market events – for instance after hurricanes or the Covid-related curtailments of 2020.
????The air temperature in Midland, Texas has not risen above zero Celsius since 10 February and hit a multi-year low of -18C on the night of 14-15 February.
????Permian producers and midstream companies were always willing to take the risk of potential water or liquid hydrocarbon freeze-offs, as the likelihood of such events was viewed as very low or negligible.
????This resulted in a very different setup of a typical infrastructure project compared to northern states – for instance, low-pressure gathering pipelines are rarely buried into the ground in Texas as opposed to North Dakota or Wyoming.
????Upstream flaring returned to the level seen in early February, when high flaring was driven by flowback start on several large Permian projects in areas with less developed gathering infrastructure, while infrastructure flaring reached levels not seen for many months.
????It is unusual to see natural gas flaring from infrastructure facilities on the Gulf Coast reach a level comparable to upstream flaring.
????We currently estimate that more than 2 million bpd of Permian oil production was offline on average in the past three days, but some volumes have already been restored.
????Assuming the weather improved from next week, a rapid reactivation is anticipated throughout the final week of February and the first week of March.
????Delayed activity will have a longer impact on production forecasts for February–April 2021, but similar to last year’s production curtailments, the downside for production today will result in stronger output tomorrow due to the shift in decline curves, occasional production flush events and a larger backlog of wells to be put on production in the future.
????On an average monthly basis we estimate that the total winter crisis impact on Permian oil production will be close to 660 000 bpd in February and about 160 000 bpd in March, with the effect of delayed volumes resulting in the change of sign for the impact from April.
????The nationwide impact (accounting for curtailments in the rest of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico) is 30-40% higher than for the Permian alone, but it is too early to come up with a final estimate for this number.
????Having said that, Permian oil production will likely average just 3.7 million bpd in February – lower than 4.06 million bpd bottom recorded during the Covid-19 curtailments last year.
????On the gas side, we are losing more than 1.8 billion ft3/d of Permian gas in February (average for the whole month) and we expect March output to be about 300 million ft3/d lower than our previous base case.
????This means that Permian dry gas output, too, is sent to levels lower than the curtailment period bottom from 2020. Nationwide dry gas impact is currently estimated at 3.6 billion ft3/d for the Permian, with nearly all ex-Permian curtailments coming from Texas (central and northern areas)."
