據(jù)4月19日Oil Now報(bào)道，油氣行業(yè)為實(shí)現(xiàn)巴黎氣候目標(biāo)而采取的行動(dòng)，將顛覆石油和天然氣價(jià)格。根據(jù)伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）提出的能源轉(zhuǎn)型加速方案（AET-2），所有國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際石油公司都將面臨衰退，該行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)減值、破產(chǎn)或重組規(guī)模將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)2020年。
伍德麥肯茲副總裁Ann-Louise Hittle表示：“如果我們采取行動(dòng)，把全球變暖控制在巴黎協(xié)議規(guī)定的2°C以?xún)?nèi)，能源結(jié)構(gòu)將會(huì)改變——而且會(huì)發(fā)生深刻的改變。我們的AET-2方案只是一個(gè)方案，而不是我們的基本預(yù)測(cè)。這是基于我們對(duì)自然資源部門(mén)的基本分析，對(duì)如何達(dá)成巴黎協(xié)議的一種解釋。但即便如此，油氣行業(yè)也不能太過(guò)自信。強(qiáng)有力的氣候變化政策和迅速革新的技術(shù)帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太大了。”
根據(jù)AET-2方案，石油需求將大幅下降，油價(jià)也將隨之大幅下降。到2050年，歐佩克的石油市場(chǎng)份額將超過(guò)50%，但其對(duì)市場(chǎng)的控制力將下降。
未來(lái)，石油價(jià)格或?qū)⒋蠓陆怠?/p>
需求的急劇下降使這些主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)無(wú)法像今天這樣管理市場(chǎng)、支撐價(jià)格。值得一提的是，盡管失去了定價(jià)能力，低成本的歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)仍是全球核心的石油供應(yīng)國(guó)。
因此，油價(jià)在21世紀(jì)20年代末期將開(kāi)始下滑。根據(jù)AET-2方案，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年，布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格將從目前的60美元/桶-70美元/桶，降至40美元/桶。到2050年，布倫特原油價(jià)格可能會(huì)跌至10美元/桶-18美元/桶。然而，天然氣需求預(yù)計(jì)將保持彈性。
伍德麥肯茲的設(shè)想將見(jiàn)證石油巨頭的終結(jié)和能源巨頭的崛起。財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力雄厚的綜合性公司加快了他們的投資計(jì)劃，用可再生能源、氫和CCS的現(xiàn)金流來(lái)補(bǔ)充不斷減少的上游收入。
該咨詢(xún)公司對(duì)能源巨頭新能源戰(zhàn)略的基準(zhǔn)分析顯示，AET-2的三大技術(shù)支柱是可再生能源行業(yè)的新鮮血液，是CCS領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)軍者，是氫能源方面的先行者。未來(lái)幾年，巨額現(xiàn)金流的誘人預(yù)期，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致一些國(guó)際石油公司和國(guó)家石油公司推遲能源轉(zhuǎn)型行動(dòng)，但在AET-2情景模擬下，推遲能源轉(zhuǎn)型行動(dòng)不是一個(gè)可持續(xù)的企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略。
王佳晶 摘譯自 Oil Now
原文如下：
WoodMac sees US$10 Brent oil coming, oil majors facing decline on scale never before seen
The action to achieve Paris climate goals will upend oil and gas prices. Under consultancy group Wood Mackenzie’s Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario (AET-2), all National and International Oil Companies face decline, and the sector will see asset impairments and bankruptcy or restructuring on a scale far greater than that of 2020.
“If we move to keep global warming to the 2°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, the energy matrix will change – and change profoundly,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President, Macro Oils, at WoodMac.
She added: “Our AET-2 scenario is a scenario, not our base-case forecast. It is one interpretation of how the Paris Agreement could be achieved, based on our fundamental analysis across the natural resource sectors.
“Even so, the oil and gas industry cannot afford to be complacent. The risks associated with robust climate-change policy and rapidly changing technology are too great.”
Under WoodMac’s AET-2 scenario, oil demand will drop significantly, and with it, oil prices. OPEC has an oil-market share of more than 50% by 2050, but less control.
Price fall
The steep fall in demand prevents those key oil producers from managing the market and supporting prices in the way it does today. Despite losing their price-setting ability, however, low-cost Middle East OPEC producers remain core providers of oil.
Consequently, oil prices begin to slip later this decade. By 2030, under AET-2, we would expect Brent to average US$40 per barrel (bbl), down from US$60 to US$70/bbl currently. By 2050, Brent may slide to US$10 to US$18/bbl. Gas demand, however, is expected to remain resilient.
WoodMac’s scenario would see the end of Big Oil and the rise of Big Energy. Financially strong integrated companies step up their investment plans to supplement dwindling upstream revenue with new cash flow from renewables, hydrogen and CCS.
The consultancy group’s benchmarking of the majors’ new energy strategies shows that, on the three technological pillars of AET-2, they are latecomers to renewables, are leaders in CCS and, as large consumers, enjoy a potential early-mover advantage in integrating hydrogen.
“The tantalising hope of a few more years of windfall cash flows may lead some IOCs and NOCs to defer action, but delay will not be a sustainable corporate strategy under the AET-2 scenario,” WoodMac said.
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