據(jù)今日油價(jià)4月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)逐步恢復(fù)，石油需求開(kāi)始恢復(fù)正常，石油和天然氣行業(yè)目前正處于一個(gè)小型繁榮周期。石油市場(chǎng)再次處于樂(lè)觀情緒中，上周三，石油期貨交易大幅走高，此前美國(guó)政府報(bào)告周庫(kù)存第三周下降，而國(guó)際能源署(IEA)發(fā)布了2021年樂(lè)觀的石油報(bào)告。在去年石油需求減少870萬(wàn)桶/天之后，IEA當(dāng)前預(yù)計(jì)，2021年全球石油需求將增加570萬(wàn)桶/天，至9670萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　然而，對(duì)于許多美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油氣生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，仍然沒(méi)有什么值得高興的，申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)的數(shù)量創(chuàng)下了紀(jì)錄。根據(jù)能源和重組律師事務(wù)所Haynes and Boone的數(shù)據(jù)，北美石油生產(chǎn)商第一季度的破產(chǎn)數(shù)量攀升至2016年以來(lái)的最高水平，能源公司仍在努力從2020年油價(jià)暴跌的重創(chuàng)中復(fù)蘇。

　　Haynes and Boone報(bào)告稱(chēng)，在2021年第一季度，北美有8家油氣生產(chǎn)商破產(chǎn)，這是自2016年第一季度17家公司破產(chǎn)以來(lái)一季度第二高的數(shù)字。要知道，2016年第一季度是美國(guó)原油期貨在疫情爆發(fā)前，最近一次跌破30美元/桶。

　　不過(guò)，原油價(jià)格已從一年前的低點(diǎn)反彈，WTI原油上周五的交易價(jià)格約為每桶63美元，布倫特原油的交易價(jià)格為每桶67美元。

　　陷入困境的多為小公司

　　這次最大的不同是，較小的油氣生產(chǎn)商似乎是主要的受害者，因?yàn)榻衲暌患径鹊目倐鶆?wù)僅為18億美元，僅次于2019年第一季度的16億美元，是第一季度債務(wù)總額第二低的。

　　從某些角度來(lái)看，去年申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)的美國(guó)能源公司持有530億美元的總債務(wù)，這是自2016年以來(lái)的第二高水平，2016的總債務(wù)達(dá)到了568億美元。

　　正如預(yù)期的那樣，德州的破產(chǎn)申請(qǐng)數(shù)占到一半。HighPoint資源公司是最大的債務(wù)持有者，擁有9.05億美元的有擔(dān)保和無(wú)擔(dān)保債務(wù)。

　　除了油氣生產(chǎn)商，共有5家油田服務(wù)公司也申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)，其中offshore drilling Seadrill Ltd承擔(dān)了該行業(yè)72億美元債務(wù)的大部分。

　　需求存在樂(lè)觀的拐點(diǎn)

　　幸運(yùn)的是，隨著能源需求前景較幾個(gè)月前大幅改善，許多生產(chǎn)商和油田服務(wù)公司已經(jīng)達(dá)到了一個(gè)拐點(diǎn)。

　　上周，IEA發(fā)布了一份2021年石油需求樂(lè)觀報(bào)告，將2021年全球石油需求上調(diào)23萬(wàn)桶/天，至9670萬(wàn)桶/天，較2020年水平增加570萬(wàn)桶/天。這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)是根據(jù)令人鼓舞的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行上調(diào)的，盡管該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，由于關(guān)鍵消費(fèi)地區(qū)的新冠肺炎病例激增，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢(shì)仍很脆弱。

　　此外，在4月份更新的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》中，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)將2021年和2022年的全球GDP增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)分別上調(diào)至6%和4.4%。

　　由于迅速推出疫苗和巨額刺激計(jì)劃，美國(guó)獲得了最大的上調(diào)幅度。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，美國(guó)迄今為止推出了世界上最快的疫苗推廣計(jì)劃，這為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的全面重新開(kāi)放奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。最新的疫苗接種率為每天3053566劑，這意味著在短短三個(gè)月內(nèi)，它可以覆蓋75%的人口，也就是所謂的群體免疫人數(shù)。

　　IEA表示，最大的需求增長(zhǎng)將出現(xiàn)在今年下半年，強(qiáng)勁的需求增長(zhǎng)需要每天額外增加200萬(wàn)桶原油，以保持市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)充足。

　　與此同時(shí)，摩根大通估計(jì)，二疊紀(jì)Delaware盆地的石油鉆探商現(xiàn)在只需要約33美元/桶的油價(jià)，就可以在2019年達(dá)到40美元/桶的水平，實(shí)現(xiàn)收支平衡。摩根大通表示，在目前的油價(jià)下，大多數(shù)美國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)商都是獲利的，許多運(yùn)營(yíng)商甚至可能在下半年增加活動(dòng)，并在2022年建立強(qiáng)勁的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　Oil And Gas Bankruptcies Jump Despite Rise In Crude Prices

　　The oil and gas sector is currently enjoying a mini-boom cycle as economies gradually re-open and oil demand begins to return to a semblance of normalcy. The oil markets are in an upbeat mood once again, with oil futures trading sharply higher on Wednesday after the U.S. government reported a third-weekly drop in weekly inventories while the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bullish oil report for 2021. After declining 8.7 mb/d last year, the IEA now expects world oil demand to expand by 5.7 mb/d in 2021 to 96.7 mb/d.

　　For many U.S. shale producers, however, there's still little to cheer about, with record numbers filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

　　According to Energy and restructuring law firm Haynes and Boone, bankruptcies by North American oil producers climbed to the highest first-quarter level since 2016 as energy firms continue to struggle to recover from the carnage of the oil price crash in 2020.

　　Haynes and Boone has reported there were eight bankruptcies by North American oil and gas producers in Q1 2021, the second-highest figure for a first-quarter ever since 17 were reported for Q1 2016, the last time U.S. crude futures dipped under $30 a barrel over the past decade.

　　Crude prices have bounced back from year-ago lows, with WTI trading around $63 a barrel on Friday while Brent is changing hands at $67 a barrel.

　　Small firms in trouble

　　The big difference this time around is that smaller producers appear to be the main victims, with just $1.8 billion in aggregate debt for the quarter, the second-lowest Q1 total after $1.6 billion in Q1 2019.

　　For some perspective, consider that last year, U.S. energy companies that filed for bankruptcy held $53 billion in aggregate debt, the second-highest total since 2016 when debt totaled $56.8 billion.

　　As expected, Texas continues to be well represented, with half of the bankruptcy filers coming from that region.

　　HighPoint Resources Corp. (NYSE:HPR) was the largest debt-holder to file, with $905 million in secured and unsecured debt.

　　Apart from oil and gas producers, a total of five oilfield service companies also filed for bankruptcy, with offshore driller Seadrill Ltd (OTCQX:SDRL) accountING for most of the sector's $7.2 billion debt.

　　Inflection point

　　Luckily, many producers and oilfield services companies have reached an inflection point, with the energy demand outlook considerably improved from just a few months ago.

　　Last week, the IEA issued a bullish oil report for 2021 whereby it revised up global oil demand in 2021 by 230,000 b/d to 96.7 mb/d, good for a 5.7 mb/d increase from 2020 levels. The energy watchdog has based the upgrade on encouraging economic indicators though it says recovery remains fragile due to surging Covid-19 cases in key consumer regions.

　　For instance, in its April update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its forecast for global GDP growth for 2021 and 2022 to +6% and +4.4%, respectively.

　　The United States received the biggest upgrade thanks to its swift vaccine rollout and hefty stimulus packages. The United States has so far unveiled the world's fastest vaccine rollout as per Bloomberg, placing itself in a good position for a full re-opening of the economy. The latest vaccination rate stands at 3,053,566 doses per day, meaning it could cover 75% of the population, or the so-called herd immunity number, in just three months.

　　The IEA says the biggest demand growth will come in the latter half of the current year with strong demand growth requiring an additional 2 mb/d of extra crude to keep the markets well supplied.

　　Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan has estimated that Permian's Delaware Basin oil drillers now require oil prices of just ~$33/bbl to break even down from $40/bbl in 2019. JPM says most U.S. onshore operators are economic at current oil prices, and many operators are even likely to ramp up activity in H2 and build solid momentum for higher volumes in 2022.