據今日油價網站5月6日消息 分析師表示，需求激增和新銅項目供應不足可能導致銅價在幾年內躍升至每噸2萬美元，是目前每噸1萬美元左右的價格的兩倍，這是10年來的最高水平。

　　對支持能源轉型的關鍵礦物（包括銅）的需求激增，已使銅成為今年最熱門的金屬之一，價格躍升至每噸10000美元。由于全球對脫碳的推動以及政府對電動汽車（EV）和可再生能源發電的支持，比疫情前的水平翻了一番。

　　銅將是能源轉型的關鍵金屬，但國際能源署（IEA）在本周發布的新報告《關鍵礦產在清潔能源轉型中的作用》中稱，預計到2030年，現有礦山和在建項目的銅供應量將達到全球所需銅的80%左右，符合氣候目標。

　　IEA表示，電網需要大量的銅和鋁，銅是所有電力相關技術的基石。

　　然而，隨著時間的推移，銅礦項目的資源質量正在下降。例如，IEA表示，智利的銅礦石平均品位在過去15年中下降了30%。銅項目的投資也落后于預期的需求激增。

　　這就是為什么美國對沖基金Livermore Partners的創始人兼董事總經理David Neuhauser本周在接受CNBC采訪時表示：“銅是新的石油，這并不奇怪。”

　　Neuhauser告訴CNBC：“我認為銅是一種新的石油，而且我認為銅在未來5到10年內看起來作用巨大，每公噸的潛在價值將達到2萬美元。”

　　幾天前，美國銀行在一份研究報告中表示，如果銅庫存耗盡，最早在2025年，這種關鍵能源過渡金屬的價格可能達到每噸2萬美元。

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Analysts: Copper Prices Could Double To $20,000 Per Ton

　　Surging demand and insufficient supply of new copper projects could result in copper prices jumping to $20,000 per metric ton in a few years, double the current price of around $10,000 per ton which is the highest in a decade, analysts say.

　　Soaring demand for critical minerals to support the energy transition, including copper, has already made copper one of the hottest metals this year, with prices jumping to $10,000 per ton, double from the pre-pandemic levels due to the global push toward decarbonization and government support for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable electricity generation.

　　Copper will be the key metal in the energy transition. But expected supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet around 80 percent of the copper the world will need by 2030 in a scenario consistent with climate goals, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its new report ‘The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions’ this week.

　　“Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminium, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies,” the IEA said.

　　However, the copper projects are seeing a decline in resource quality over time. For example, the IEA says, the average copper ore grade in Chile declined by 30 percent over the past 15 years. Investments in copper projects are also lagging behind the expected surge in demand.

　　That’s why it’s no surprise that David Neuhauser, founder and managing director of U.S. hedge fund Livermore Partners, told CNBC this week that “copper is the new oil.”

　　“I think copper is the new oil and I think copper, for the next five to 10 years, is going to look tremendous with the potential for $20,000 per metric ton,” Neuhauser told CNBC.

　　A few days ago, Bank of America said in a research note that if inventories of copper deplete, the price of the key energy transition metal could hit $20,000 per ton as early as 2025.

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