據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶5月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)解決方案國家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與行業(yè)研究(Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research)最新的油價(jià)展望報(bào)告顯示，該公司分析師上調(diào)了他們對(duì)2021年布倫特原油均價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)。

　　分析師們目前預(yù)計(jì)，今年布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶66美元，高于該公司3月份發(fā)布的上一份油價(jià)報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)的每桶64美元。

　　分析師在周四發(fā)給鉆機(jī)地帶的5月份報(bào)告中表示，該預(yù)測(cè)意味著今年剩余時(shí)間平均每桶68美元左右，與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格基本持平。

　　分析師在報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充道，來自中國和美國的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)以及疫苗接種率的上升使人們感到樂觀。 但是，與新冠疫強(qiáng)相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然比比皆是，最近在印度爆發(fā)的疫情就證明了這一點(diǎn)。在我們看來，供應(yīng)限制的放松和需求方面揮之不去的不確定性，將嚴(yán)重拖累今年的價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲。

　　惠譽(yù)分析師在5月的報(bào)告中指出，如果油價(jià)持續(xù)突破每桶70美元，可能會(huì)觸發(fā)該公司的預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)。 但是，他們補(bǔ)充道，他們相信布倫特原油將無法在當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)條件下突破阻力。

　　分析師在報(bào)告中表示，最近有一些跡象顯示市場(chǎng)狀況惡化，包括布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)收窄，現(xiàn)貨合約表現(xiàn)遜于財(cái)務(wù)結(jié)算合約。投機(jī)性頭寸在4月份轉(zhuǎn)為稍微看漲，但多頭與空頭比率仍遠(yuǎn)低于其第一季度高點(diǎn)。 多頭頭寸的增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)較軟，可能表明對(duì)進(jìn)一步的收益缺乏信心。在我們看來，市場(chǎng)可能低估了與冠狀病毒未來爆發(fā)、更具傳染性的新變種的崛起以及全球疫苗推出速度有關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果布倫特原油價(jià)格未能收于每桶70美元以上 ，那么印度的疫情螺旋式上升，以及亞洲其他主要消費(fèi)國的疫情爆發(fā)，可能會(huì)引發(fā)油價(jià)部分回落。

　　展望未來，惠譽(yù)分析師在5月份的報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，2022年布倫特原油均價(jià)將為64美元/桶，2023年為65美元/桶，2024年為70美元/桶，2025年為72美元/桶。彭博共識(shí)(Bloomberg Consensus)預(yù)測(cè)布倫特原油今年的平均價(jià)格為64美元/桶，2022年為64.5美元/桶，2023年為65.3美元/桶，2024年為65美元/桶，2025年為66美元/桶。

　　郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

　　原文如下：

　　Analysts Raise 2021 Oil Price Forecast

　　Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research have raised their average Brent oil price forecast for 2021, the company’s latest oil price outlook report has revealed.

　　The analysts now see Brent averaging $66 per barrel this year, up from the forecast of $64 per barrel made in the group’s previous oil price report, which was released back in March.

　　“The forecast implies a rest of year average of around $68 per barrel, broadly flat from spot,” the analysts stated in the May report, which was sent to Rigzone on Thursday.

　　“Strong economic data out of China and the U.S. and rising vaccination rates give cause for optimism. However, Covid-19 related risks continue to abound, most recently evidenced by the outbreak in India,” the analysts added in the report.

　　“In our view, a combination of easing supply constraints and lingering demand-side uncertainties will weigh heavily on further price growth this year,” the analysts continued.

　　Fitch Solutions analysts noted in the May report that a sustained break above the $70 per barrel level would likely trigger an upgrade to the company’s forecast. They added, however, that it is their belief that Brent will fail to break resistance under current market conditions.

　　“There have been some signs of deterioration in the health of the market of late, including narrowing backwardation in Brent and underperformance of physically versus financially-settled contracts,” the analysts said in the report.

　　“Speculative positioning has turned slightly more bullish over April, but the ratio of longs to shorts remains far below its Q1 highs. The growth in long positions has been relatively soft, perhaps pointing to a lack of faith in further gains,” the analysts added.

　　“In our view, the market is likely underestimating the risks related to future outbreaks of the coronavirus, the rise of new, more transmissible variants and the pace of the global vaccine roll out. Should Brent fail to close above $70 per barrel, the spiraling epidemic in India and outbreaks among other key Asian consumers could be the trigger for a partial relapse in prices,” the analysts continued.

　　Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions analysts forecasted in the May report that Brent will average $64 per barrel in 2022, $65 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. The Bloomberg Consensus sees Brent averaging $64 per barrel this year, $64.5 per barrel in 2022, $65.3 per barrel in 2023, $65 per barrel in 2024, and $66 per barrel in 2025.

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