據(jù)7月8日Oil Monster消息：美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)周三表示，預(yù)計(jì)2021年美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量將減少21萬(wàn)桶，降至1110萬(wàn)桶，降幅小于此前預(yù)計(jì)的23萬(wàn)桶。
在石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)及其盟友限制產(chǎn)量的推動(dòng)下，油價(jià)已反彈至約三年來(lái)的最高水平。
油價(jià)上漲促使一些美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商增加鉆井活動(dòng)，6月份鉆機(jī)總數(shù)連續(xù)11個(gè)月上升。然而，這是自2020年9月以來(lái)最低的月度增長(zhǎng)。
EIA稱，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，全球石油產(chǎn)量(主要來(lái)自歐佩克+成員國(guó))的增幅預(yù)計(jì)將超過(guò)全球石油消費(fèi)量。
該機(jī)構(gòu)表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量增加將減少過(guò)去一年大部分時(shí)間持續(xù)出現(xiàn)的全球石油庫(kù)存減少，并將油價(jià)維持在目前水平，2021年下半年平均每桶72美元?！?/p>
EIA表示，預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，歐佩克+和美國(guó)致密油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)以及其他供應(yīng)的增加，將超過(guò)全球石油消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)，并導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。
預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量平均為1185萬(wàn)桶/天，高于2021年預(yù)計(jì)的1110萬(wàn)桶/天。
該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，2021年美國(guó)石油和其他液體燃料消耗量將增加152萬(wàn)桶/天，至1964萬(wàn)桶/天，而此前預(yù)估為增加149萬(wàn)桶/天。
2022年美國(guó)石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加104萬(wàn)桶/天，至2,068萬(wàn)桶/天，此前預(yù)估為增加100萬(wàn)桶/天。
在全球范圍內(nèi)，預(yù)計(jì)2022年液體燃料的消耗量將增加370萬(wàn)桶/天，達(dá)到1.014億桶/天，將超過(guò)2019年的水平。
馮娟 摘譯自 Oil Monster
原文如下：
U.S. 2021 Crude Output to Decline Less Than Previously Forecast
U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 210,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 11.10 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, a smaller decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 230,000 bpd.
Oil prices have rebounded to their highest levels in about three years, helped by output curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.
The rise has prompted some U.S. producers to increase drilling activity, with total rig counts rising for an 11th consecutive month in June. However, that was the smallest monthly increase since September 2020.
In the coming months, global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members, is expected to increase by more than global oil consumption, the EIA said.
"We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72 per barrel during the second half of 2021," the agency said.
In 2022, EIA said it expects growth in production from OPEC+ and U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply additions, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices.
U.S. output is expected to average 11.85 million bpd, up from a forecast average of 11.10 million bpd in 2021.
The agency said it expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to rise 1.52 million bpd to 19.64 million bpd in 2021, compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.49 million bpd.
For 2022, U.S. demand is forecast to rise by 1.04 million bpd to 20.68 million bpd, compared to the previous forecast for a rise of 1 million bpd.
Globally, consumption of liquid fuels is expected to rise by an additional 3.7 million bpd in 2022 to 101.4 million bpd, which would surpass 2019 levels.
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