據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶7月12日專欄消息，今年夏天，美國的原油供應(yīng)只會(huì)略微增加。

　　根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的最新分析，美國7月份的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長6萬桶/天，達(dá)到1151萬桶/天，與8月份持平。

　　據(jù)雷斯塔能源透露，預(yù)計(jì)9月和10月原油產(chǎn)量將分別下降至1134萬桶/天和1141萬桶/天，然后從2021年11月開始出現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的緩慢增長軌跡，屆時(shí)原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將回升至1155萬桶/天。該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，12月的產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1162萬桶/天，從2022年1月開始，產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)上升，打破同年10月以來的月平均水平1200萬桶/天。

　　雷斯塔能源指出，由于預(yù)計(jì)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)價(jià)格不會(huì)保持在當(dāng)前的高位，美國2022-2023年的月產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)達(dá)到2019年創(chuàng)下的1290萬桶/天的紀(jì)錄。不過，該公司補(bǔ)充稱，如果波動(dòng)持續(xù)，將有一些上行潛力。

　　該公司預(yù)測，從2021年下半年到2023年，德克薩斯州和新墨西哥州的石油產(chǎn)量將幾乎全面增長，而美國其他地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量將保持在530萬桶/天至540萬桶/天。

　　雷斯塔能源在其最新分析中強(qiáng)調(diào)，美國公共生產(chǎn)商在2021年的原油產(chǎn)量中，很多都以遠(yuǎn)低于70美元的價(jià)格進(jìn)行了對沖，這意味著運(yùn)營商計(jì)入了財(cái)務(wù)損失，部分抵消了實(shí)際收益，最終抑制了額外生產(chǎn)。然而，該公司還指出，2021年頁巖油總產(chǎn)量中有不到40%的產(chǎn)量是對沖的，這意味著許多運(yùn)營商將受到WTI價(jià)格上漲的高度激勵(lì)，尤其是私營生產(chǎn)商。該公司指出，對他們來說，如果油價(jià)上漲被視為一種結(jié)構(gòu)性變化，而非短期再平衡，那么從理論上講，產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)有一些上行空間。

　　然而，雷斯塔能源指出，在2022年第二季度之前，這兩種類型的生產(chǎn)商都不可能有重大的供應(yīng)響應(yīng)。該預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)表示，石油行業(yè)仍嚴(yán)重依賴已鉆探但未完工(DUC)完井，為了大幅增加壓裂量，運(yùn)營商首先需要增加鉆井量。雷斯塔能源還強(qiáng)調(diào)，在經(jīng)歷了上一年的艱難之后，2021年的運(yùn)營商將繼續(xù)致力于資本約束和向股東返還股息。

　　裘寅 編譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

　　原文如下：

　　How Will USA Oil Production Evolve to 2023?

　　U.S. crude oil supply will only marginally increase this summer.

　　That’s according to Rystad Energy’s latest analysis, which forecasts that U.S. crude output is forecast to grow by 60,000 barrels per day to 11.51 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in July and remain at the same level in August.

　　A dip is then expected in September and October to 11.34 MMbpd and 11.41 MMbpd, respectively, followed by a constant, slow growth trajectory commencing in November 2021, when crude output is expected to rise back to 11.55 MMbpd, Rystad Energy revealed.

　　December will see 11.62 MMbpd, and, from January 2022 onwards, output will continue to rise, breaking the 12 MMbpd monthly average from October that year, Rystad Energy projected.

　　U.S. monthly output in 2022-2023 is not expected to match the record 12.9 MMbpd achieved in 2019, as WTI prices are not forecast to remain at the current high levels, Rystad Energy noted. The company added, however, that there is some upside potential if volatility continues.

　　Texas and New Mexico are expected to drive nearly all oil production growth from the second half of 2021 through 2023, while the rest of the country is set to remain in a maintenance mode, producing around 5.3 MMbpd to 5.4 MMbpd over the coming years, Rystad Energy predicted.

　　In its latest analysis, Rystad Energy highlighted that a lot of 2021 crude output by public producers in the U.S. is hedged at much lower price levels than in the $70s, meaning operators book a financial loss which partly offsets physical gains, ultimately disincentivizing extra production. The company also outlined, however, that below 40 percent of the total expected shale oil output in 2021 is hedged, meaning there are many operators that would be highly incentivized by higher WTI prices, especially private producers. Rystad Energy noted that, for them, there could in theory be some upside to production if the higher prices are perceived as a structural change rather than short-term rebalancing.

　　Nevertheless, no major supply response is possible for both types of producers before the second quarter of 2022, Rystad Energy pointed out. The industry is still heavily relying on DUCs completion and to see a serious ramp up in fracking volumes operators would first need to increase drilling, Rystad Energy said. The company also highlighted that operators in 2021 are remaining committed to capital discipline and on returning dividends to shareholders after the previous tough year.

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