據(jù)世界能源8月14日消息：歐佩克維持其對(duì)2021-22年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)不變，但在歐佩克+配額增加的背景下，該組織上調(diào)了供應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)。

　　歐佩克最新的《月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》將今年的需求定在9660萬(wàn)桶/天，比去年增加近600萬(wàn)桶/天。該組織預(yù)計(jì)，明年石油日需求量將進(jìn)一步增加330萬(wàn)桶，至9990萬(wàn)桶，而今年下半年的需求將超過1億桶/天。

　　歐佩克表示，自上次報(bào)告以來(lái)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景略有改善，但該組織認(rèn)為，這主要由非石油密集型行業(yè)推動(dòng)。

　　該公司預(yù)計(jì)，隨著道路運(yùn)輸活動(dòng)復(fù)蘇、工業(yè)部門加速發(fā)展以及新型乙烷裂解產(chǎn)品投產(chǎn)，汽油、柴油和輕餾分油將引領(lǐng)明年的石油需求增長(zhǎng)。該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，在交通和工業(yè)燃料需求健康增長(zhǎng)的支持下，印度明年的消費(fèi)量將超過疫情前的水平。

　　明年的預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)，在疫苗接種計(jì)劃和改善治療的幫助下，大流行已得到控制。但歐佩克警告稱，與新冠病毒相關(guān)的事態(tài)發(fā)展“需要在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月密切監(jiān)測(cè)，尤其是考慮到北半球在年底前通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)較冷的天氣”。

　　在供應(yīng)方面，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟上月同意提高原油生產(chǎn)配額，這促使歐佩克提高了預(yù)測(cè)。非歐佩克成員國(guó)今年的液體供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加109萬(wàn)桶/天，明年將進(jìn)一步增加294萬(wàn)桶/天。上個(gè)月的MOMR預(yù)測(cè)，非歐佩克國(guó)家的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)將在2021年達(dá)到81萬(wàn)桶/天，在2022年達(dá)到210萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　此次修訂主要反映了歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的非歐佩克成員國(guó)的配額增加，如俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦。但它們也包含了對(duì)歐佩克+以外國(guó)家(包括美國(guó)和加拿大)的更高預(yù)測(cè)。

　　考慮到非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的供應(yīng)增加，歐佩克已將其成員國(guó)今年的原油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)20萬(wàn)桶，至2740萬(wàn)桶，并將明年的日產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)110萬(wàn)桶，至2760萬(wàn)桶。根據(jù)阿格斯等二手資源的平均數(shù)據(jù)，歐佩克上月的原油日產(chǎn)量為2670萬(wàn)桶。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源

　　原文如下：

　　Opec Lifts Oil Supply Forecast, Demand Unchanged

　　Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for 2021-22 unchanged but it has lifted its forecast for supply on the back of rising Opec+ quotas.

　　Opec's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) pegs this year's demand at 96.6mn b/d, up by just under 6mn b/d from last year. It forecasts a further rise of 3.3mn b/d to 99.9mn b/d next year, with demand exceeding 100mn b/d in the second half of the year.

　　Opec said that the outlook for the global economy has improved slightly since its last report, but it assumes that this will be mainly driven by non-oil intensive sectors.

　　It expects gasoline, diesel and light distillates to lead next year's oil demand growth as road transport activity recovers, the industrial sector picks up steam and new ethane crackers are commissioned. It forecasts that consumption in India will outstrip pre-pandemic levels next year, "supported by a healthy rise in demand for transportation and industrial fuels".

　　Next year's forecast assumes that the pandemic is under control, helped by vaccination programmes and improved treatment. But Opec warns that Covid-related developments "will need close monitoring over the coming months, especially when considering the usual colder weather in the northern hemisphere towards the end of the year".

　　On the supply side, last month's agreement by the Opec+ coalition to lift crude production quotas has prompted Opec to raise its forecasts. Non-Opec liquids supply is now projected to rise by 1.09mn b/d this year and by a further 2.94mn b/d next year. Last month's MOMR pegged non-Opec supply growth at 810,000 b/d in 2021 and 2.1mn b/d in 2022.

　　The revisions mainly reflect higher quotas for non-Opec members of the Opec+ alliance, such as Russia and Kazakhstan. But they also incorporate higher forecasts for countries outside the Opec+ group including the US and Canada.

　　Taking into account the higher non-Opec supply, Opec has trimmed the forecast call on its own members' crude by 200,000 b/d to 27.4mn b/d this year and by 1.1mn b/d to 27.6mn b/d next year. Opec crude output was 26.7mn b/d last month, according to an average of secondary sources including Argus.

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