據能源之聲12月29日消息，Rystad能源公司的研究顯示，東南亞將在2022年至2025年之間做出最終投資決定(FID)，在新的深水天然氣和凝析油開發中占據最大份額。值得注意的是，從2021年到2025年，該地區的深水開發項目預計將花費約250億美元，高于之前五年的20億美元。

Rystad 在一份報告中稱：“未來四年，全球220億桶油當量中，東南亞將有近50億桶油當量獲得批準。在預計到2025年達到FID的20個左右深水項目中，前三名將是馬來西亞、印度尼西亞和越南的海上項目，其他開發項目將在泰國、緬甸和文萊獲得批準。”

在東南亞的資源總量中，印尼將占到60%左右，其次是馬來西亞、緬甸、越南和文萊。到2025年，共有20多個深水項目將獲得批準。占這些資源近 70% 的前三大深水項目包括雪佛龍在印度尼西亞的 IDD 項目、Inpex 在印度尼西亞的 Abadi 項目和埃克森美孚在越南的 Blue Whale 項目。

這三個頂級項目在獲得批準之前都面臨著巨大的挑戰。因此，最終批準投資的時間表面臨風險。

其他正在進行中的項目包括馬來西亞的Rosmari-Marjoram項目、文萊的Kelidang Cluster項目、馬來西亞的Kebabangan二期項目和Limbayong二期項目以及緬甸的Shwe Yee Htun一期項目。70%以上的項目由大型石油公司和國家石油公司運營。

近海大陸架最終投資決定

“在2022-2025年預計將被批準的近海大陸架資源方面，東南亞是僅次于中東的第二大地區，擁有超過35億桶油當量的FID資源。馬來西亞將占該份額的近50%，其次是印度尼西亞和越南，國家石油公司是這些項目的主要運營商。PTTEP在馬來西亞的Lang Lebah項目是其中最大的項目，為FID提供了超過5.75億桶的資源，緊隨其后的是越南國家石油公司在越南的B區塊天然氣項目，其儲量為5.6億桶。其他主要項目包括馬來西亞SapuraOMV的B14項目、馬來西亞國家石油公司的K5和Kasawari二期項目、印尼Conrad Petroleum的Mako項目以及英國石油公司的Vorwata項目。雪佛龍在泰國的烏汶油田也在準備獲批，這是該國自2009年以來第一次大規模FID投資。”Rystad 報道。

重大的挑戰

東南亞的海上開發面臨著巨大的挑戰，其中包括與一些主要油田開發相關的高二氧化碳含量。Rystad補充說，到2025年，這些投資決策將帶來超過45億桶油當量的酸性氣體和高二氧化碳含量。事實上，許多運營商，如馬來西亞國家石油公司、Inpex和英國石油公司，都在考慮將碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)添加到他們的開發中，以幫助減少排放足跡。

列出的一些頂級項目面臨的另一個潛在障礙是潛在的合并協議的進展。馬來西亞和文萊的協議是在2021年初簽署的，然而，Kelidang集群的開發仍在籌備中，尚未取得任何進展。

此外，在東南亞，許多待批準的項目也在出售，因為運營商要么尋求合作，要么將資產出售給另一家公司進行開發。該地區超過35億桶石油資源屬于這一類，這意味著FID時間表可能面臨風險。

殼牌正尋求出售inpex在印尼Masela區塊運營的Abadi項目35%的股份。雪佛龍正在等待將其在印尼IDD項目中62%的股份出售給埃尼集團。而埃克森美孚正在為其在越南的Blue Whale項目尋找買家。

盡管存在這些障礙，但這些新開發項目的額外供應對于東南亞國家抵消預期的國內天然氣產量大幅下降和對進口依賴增加的影響至關重要。

Rystad估計，由于即將批準的深水開發項目，東南亞的深水天然氣和凝析油產量預計將在2030年翻一番，達到約50億立方英尺/天，而目前的產量約為25億立方英尺/天。

從2021年到2030年，該地區生產油田的大陸架產量將下降約60%。根據Rystad的數據，到2030年，新的大陸架開發預計將增加約45億立方英尺/天的新產量。

裘寅 編譯自 能源之聲

原文如下：

Southeast Asia to dominate global deepwater gas activity with $25bn spend

Southeast Asia will lead other regions in having the largest share of new deepwater gas and condensate developments taking a final investment decision (FID) between 2022 and 2025, research from Rystad Energy shows. Significantly, around $25 billion is expected to be spent on greenfield deepwater developments in the region from 2021-2025, up from $2 billion over the prior five-year term.

“Nearly 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) will be sanctioned in Southeast Asia out of a total 22 billion boe globally in the coming four years. Of the 20 or so deepwater projects expected to reach FID through 2025, the top three will be offshore Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam with other developments set to be sanctioned in Thailand, Myanmar, and Brunei,” Rystad said in a report.

“Of Southeast Asia’s total, Indonesia will be responsible for around 60% of these resources followed by Malaysia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Brunei. A total of over 20 deepwater projects are due for sanctioning by 2025. The top three deepwater projects responsible for nearly 70% of these resources include Chevron’s IDD project in Indonesia, Inpex’s Abadi project in Indonesia and ExxonMobil’s Blue Whale project in Vietnam,” reported the energy consultancy.

Although all three of the top projects face significant challenges that need to be overcome before they can be sanctioned. As a result, timelines for final investment approval are at risk.

“Other projects in the pipeline include Rosmari-Marjoram projects in Malaysia, Kelidang Cluster in Brunei, Kebabangan Phase 2 and Limbayong Phase 2 in Malaysia and Shwe Yee Htun Phase 1 in Myanmar. The majors and internationally focused NOCs operate over 70% of these projects,” said Rystad.

Offshore shelf FIDs

“In terms of offshore shelf resources expected to be sanctioned from 2022-25, Southeast Asia is second to the Middle East with over 3.5 billion boe of resources set for FID. Malaysia will be responsible for nearly 50% of this share followed by Indonesia and Vietnam, with the NOCs the major operators of these projects. PTTEP’s Lang Lebah project in Malaysia is the largest in the list with over 575 million boe of resources set for FID, followed by PetroVietnam’s 560 million boe Block B gas project in Vietnam. Other major projects include the SapuraOMV’s B14 project in Malaysia, Petronas’ K5 and Kasawari Phase 2 projects in Malaysia, Conrad Petroleum’s Mako project in Indonesia and BP’s Vorwata in Indonesia.Chevron’s Ubon in Thailand is also in the pipeline for sanctioning, the first sizeable FID for the nation since 2009,” reported Rystad.

Significant challenges

Offshore developments in Southeast Asia face significant challenges including the high carbon dioxide (CO2) content associated with some of the major field developments. Over 4.5 billion boe of resources with sour gas and high CO2 content are due for FID by 2025, added Rystad. Indeed, many operators, such as Petronas, Inpex, and BP, are considering adding carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) to their developments to help reduce their emissions footprint.

“Another potential hurdle for some of the top projects listed is progress on potential unitisation agreements. The Malaysia-Brunei agreement was signed in early 2021, however, the development of the Kelidang cluster is still in the pipeline with little progress yet made,” said Rystad.

Geopolitical tensions could also thwart developments with China staking claim to maritime areas offshore Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia, where oil and gas developments are planned.

Moreover, “in Southeast Asia many of the projects up for sanctioning are also for sale as operators look to either partner up or sell the assets to another company for development. Over 3.5 billion boe of the region’s resources fall into this category, meaning FID timetables could be at risk,” cautioned Rystad.

Shell is seeking to sell its 35% share of the Inpex-operated Abadi project in Indonesia’s Masela Block. Chevron is awaiting the sale of its 62% stake in the IDD project, also in Indonesia, to Eni. While ExxonMobil is seeking buyers for its Blue Whale project in Vietnam.

Despite the hurdles, additional supply from these new developments will be crucial for Southeast Asian countries to offset a significant expected fall in domestic gas production and increased dependence on imports.

As a result of set-to-be sanctioned deepwater developments, deepwater gas and condensate production in Southeast Asia is predicted to double to around 5 billion cubic feet per day (cf/d) in 2030 compared to current output of about 2.5 billion cf/d, estimates Rystad.

Shelf production in the region from producing fields is set to decline by around 60% from 2021 to 2030. New shelf developments are expected to add around 4.5 billion cf/d of new production by 2030, according to Rystad.