據(jù)美國彭博新聞社2022年1月18日報道，石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)預(yù)計，今年全球石油市場將繼續(xù)受到強(qiáng)勁需求的“良好支撐”，保持有信心的前景，使歐佩克得以恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。

1月18日，倫敦和紐約的原油價格攀升至2014年以來的最高水平，在一系列供應(yīng)中斷限制供應(yīng)的情況下，燃油消費的復(fù)蘇基本沒有受到奧密克戎變異毒株的阻礙。布倫特原油期貨價格一度突破每桶88美元。

歐佩克在其最新一期的月度報告中稱，即便各國央行收緊貨幣政策，石油市場的強(qiáng)勢仍將持續(xù)。 歐佩克公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前全球石油的庫存水平遠(yuǎn)低于5年平均水平。

歐佩克重申了其去年12月的預(yù)測，即“奧密克戎毒株對需求的影響將是溫和且短暫的”，而這一預(yù)測目前已被證實。

總部位于維也納的歐佩克研究部門的樂觀前景，應(yīng)該會讓產(chǎn)油國在2月初開會時感到放心。  

歐佩克及其合作伙伴——以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的23國聯(lián)盟——一直在逐步恢復(fù)新冠肺炎疫情大流行期間停止的原油產(chǎn)量。

然而，這也成為原油市場的一個看漲催化劑，因為歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的原油產(chǎn)量未能按照計劃的速度增長，一些成員國的石油生產(chǎn)受到投資不足和動蕩的阻礙。

報告顯示，去年12月，歐佩克成員國每日新增石油產(chǎn)量僅為16.6萬桶，低于25萬桶的目標(biāo)。 尼日利亞的石油產(chǎn)量再次下降。  

歐佩克對今年全球石油需求和供應(yīng)的預(yù)測與上個月報告的預(yù)測基本一致。  

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

OPEC Sees Oil Market Well Supported

OPEC expects global oil markets to remain “well-supported” this year by robust demand, maintaining the confident outlook that has allowed the group to revive production.

Crude prices climbed to the highest since 2014 in London and New York on Tuesday, with the recovery in fuel consumption largely unimpeded by the omicron variant while a range of disruptions restricts supply. Brent futures topped $88 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that the market’s strength will persist, even as central banks tighten monetary policy. Stockpiles are considerably below their five-year average, the group’s data show.

OPEC repeated its prediction from last month that “the impact of the omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived” -- a projection that has so far been vindicated. 

The bullish outlook from OPEC’s Vienna-based research department ought to reassure the producers when they gather early next month. 

OPEC and its partners -- a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia -- have been returning the output they halted during the pandemic in gradual installments.

Yet this too has been a bullish catalyst for crude markets as the coalition fails to increase at its planned pace, with a number of members hindered by under-investment and unrest. 

In December, OPEC’s members added just 166,000 barrels a day, compared with a target of 250,000 a day, the report showed. Nigeria saw its output fall once again. 

OPEC kept forecasts for global oil demand and supply this year largely unchanged from last month’s report.

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