據(jù)路透社1月10日消息，可持續(xù)發(fā)展咨詢公司奧雅納和經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院最近在一份報(bào)告中表示，到2050年，幫助世界向凈零排放轉(zhuǎn)變的行業(yè)可能為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)10.3萬(wàn)億美元的價(jià)值。

從熱浪到洪水，極端天氣事件不僅代價(jià)高昂，而且越來(lái)越多地在全球范圍內(nèi)引發(fā)動(dòng)蕩，迫使政府和行業(yè)尋求減少溫室氣體排放，減緩氣候變化。

牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院首席執(zhí)行官阿德里安·庫(kù)珀在一份聲明中表示：“作為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，我們必須誠(chéng)實(shí)地面對(duì)減緩氣候變化將耗資巨大的事實(shí)，但向碳中和的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型也帶來(lái)了令人信服的機(jī)遇。”

分析顯示，到本世紀(jì)中葉，有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》凈零目標(biāo)的碳中和商品和服務(wù)的新興市場(chǎng)將價(jià)值10.3萬(wàn)億美元，約占預(yù)計(jì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的5%。

報(bào)告指出：“這包括電動(dòng)汽車(chē)制造、可再生能源發(fā)電、清潔能源裝備制造、可再生燃料和綠色金融對(duì)GDP的直接貢獻(xiàn)，再加上全球供應(yīng)鏈支持的活動(dòng)。”

報(bào)告還顯示，隨著工業(yè)在全球能源供應(yīng)危機(jī)中轉(zhuǎn)向清潔能源，由此造成的中斷將為能夠迅速適應(yīng)不斷變化的需求的公司創(chuàng)造新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)會(huì)。

奧雅納公司和牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院發(fā)現(xiàn)，與氣候變化沒(méi)有得到遏制或應(yīng)對(duì)不力的世界相比，綠色轉(zhuǎn)型將導(dǎo)致從減緩氣候變化中獲得巨大的生產(chǎn)力提高。

牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院的一項(xiàng)情景分析表明，如果不采取行動(dòng)，到2050年全球GDP將損失約5%。報(bào)告稱，2021年，與天氣有關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中斷造成的損失已經(jīng)達(dá)到2330億美元。

奧雅納全球戰(zhàn)略技能負(fù)責(zé)人布賴斯·理查德表示：“這份報(bào)告表明，綠色轉(zhuǎn)型不是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)擔(dān)，而是帶來(lái)更大、更包容繁榮的重大機(jī)遇。”

龐曉華 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Green industries could be worth $10.3 T to economy by 2050

Industries helping the world shift to net-zero emissions could be worth $10.3 T to the global economy by 2050, sustainable development consultancy Arup and economics advisory firm Oxford Economics said in a report on Tuesday.

From heatwaves to floods, extreme weather events are not only costly but increasingly causing upheaval across the globe, pushing governments and industries to seek to cut greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change.

"As economists, we have to be honest about the fact that mitigating climate change will be expensive," Oxford Economics' Chief Executive Adrian Cooper said in a statement. "But the transition to a carbon-neutral global economy also presents compelling opportunities."

The analysis showed emerging new markets for carbon-neutral goods and services that help reach the Paris Agreement net-zero target will be worth $10.3 trillion, or about 5% of projected gross domestic product (GDP), by mid-century.

"This includes the direct contribution to GDP of electric vehicles manufacturing, renewable power generation, clean energy equipment manufacturing, renewable fuels and green finance; plus the activity supported across global supply chains," the report stated.

It also showed, as industries shift to clean power amid a global energy supply crisis, that resulting disruptions will create new competitive opportunities for companies able to adapt quickly to changing demands.

Arup and Oxford Economics found the green transition would lead to substantial productivity gains from climate change mitigation compared to "a world in which climate change has been left unchecked, or poorly tackled".

A scenario analysis by Oxford Economics suggested a failure to act could damage global GDP by around 5% by 2050. In 2021, it said the cost of weather-related interruptions to economic activity had already reached $233 B.

"This report shows the green transition is not a burden on the global economy, but a substantial opportunity to bring about a greater and more inclusive prosperity," Arup Global Strategy Skills Leader Brice Richard said.