據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)4月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，越來越多的煉油廠投產(chǎn)，產(chǎn)能大國的出口被重新安排路線，并被中東的燃料取代，天然氣、石油和柴油等中間餾分油的全球價(jià)格正在下跌。

2023年12月交付的歐洲粗柴油期貨價(jià)格從1月3日的每噸776美元和2022年6月9日的906美元峰值降至4月4日的737美元。

隨著市場(chǎng)不斷出現(xiàn)對(duì)地緣政治沖突引發(fā)供應(yīng)短缺的擔(dān)憂以及實(shí)施制裁后續(xù)態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)展的預(yù)測(cè)，非精煉柴油價(jià)格的下跌速度一直快于原油。

在過去6個(gè)月里，非精煉柴油相對(duì)于布倫特原油的溢價(jià)(均于2023年12月交付)，即煉油毛利率或“交易價(jià)差”一直在持續(xù)收窄。

4月4日，價(jià)差從2023年初的191美元和2022年10月10日的峰值254美元縮小到每噸134美元。

非精煉柴油和其他中間餾分油占?xì)W盟所有石油消費(fèi)量的45%以上，并且是對(duì)價(jià)格周期最敏感的石油產(chǎn)品。

但根據(jù)采購經(jīng)理的調(diào)查顯示，歐元區(qū)各地的制造商報(bào)告稱，自2022年6月以來，商業(yè)活動(dòng)已連續(xù)九個(gè)月下降。

在美國，2023年12月交付的超低硫柴油與布倫特原油的價(jià)差從2023年初的每噸261美元和2022年10月13日的316美元的峰值收窄至4月4日的每噸205美元。

根據(jù)美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)(ISM)的采購調(diào)查顯示，據(jù)美國制造商報(bào)告稱，自2022年11月以來，商業(yè)活動(dòng)已經(jīng)連續(xù)五個(gè)月下降。

根據(jù)美國鐵路協(xié)會(huì)(Association of American railways)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與2022年同期相比，2023年前12周美國主要鐵路公司的集裝箱減少了10%。

與此同時(shí)，在歐盟于2月5日實(shí)施制裁后，產(chǎn)能大國的蒸餾油出口已成功改道發(fā)送到中東、非洲和南美的目的地。

反過來，歐洲的餾分油需求被中東出口的柴油以及亞洲和北美的少量柴油所填補(bǔ)，緩解了人們對(duì)制裁導(dǎo)致的短缺的擔(dān)憂。

庫存增加

在2020年下半年至2022年下半年庫存耗盡大部分后，歐洲、北美和亞洲的蒸餾油庫存已經(jīng)開始積累起來。

截至2022年2月底，歐洲的餾分油庫存仍比之前的10年季節(jié)性平均水平低4000萬桶（-10%或-1.35標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差）。

但根據(jù)Euroilstock的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，缺口已從2022年6月底的6300萬桶(-15%或-2.05個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差)縮小。

今年3月31日，美國餾分燃料油庫存較此前10年的季節(jié)性平均水平低1800萬桶(-14%或-1.08個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差)。

但根據(jù)美國能源信息署（EIA）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，缺口已從去年10月7日的3100萬桶（-22%或-2.05%）縮小。

在歐洲和美國，餾分油庫存的積累與制造業(yè)和貨運(yùn)活動(dòng)的下降相吻合。

根據(jù)新加坡企業(yè)(Enterprise Singapore)機(jī)構(gòu)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在新加坡，最近15周中有12周餾分油庫存總共增加了300萬桶。

庫存仍比10年季節(jié)性平均值低150萬桶(-14%或-0.83個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差)，但缺口已從去年12月18日的300萬桶(-31%或-1.35個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差)降低。

經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退加劇

根據(jù)工業(yè)訂單的前瞻性數(shù)據(jù)表明，未來幾個(gè)月制造和貨運(yùn)活動(dòng)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步減少，尤其是在歐洲和北美。

過去12個(gè)月，全球主要央行加息的全面影響，以及最近銀行危機(jī)后信貸條件收緊的影響，尚未滲透到家庭和企業(yè)。

因此，工業(yè)活動(dòng)的放緩可能會(huì)使蒸餾油消費(fèi)的下行壓力至少持續(xù)到第二季度，甚至可能持續(xù)到第三季度。

餾分油使用和價(jià)差的前景惡化，可能是沙特阿拉伯及其OPEC+盟國4月2日決定宣布削減原油產(chǎn)量的原因之一。

但隨著持續(xù)的通貨膨脹影響家庭，更高的利率打擊的是消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)借款人，北美和歐洲的衰退正在加劇。

根據(jù)ISM最新的非制造業(yè)調(diào)查顯示，美國服務(wù)業(yè)和其他非制造業(yè)似乎正在跟隨制造業(yè)大幅放緩。

在2020年至2022年期間出現(xiàn)前所未有的下降后，餾分油庫存目前仍相對(duì)較低，這使利潤率遠(yuǎn)高于長期平均水平。

郝芬 譯自 烴加工網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global diesel prices fall as economic slowdown intensifies

Global prices for middle distillates such as gas oil and diesel are falling as the economy slows, more refineries come onstream, and exports from the largger producer are re-routed and replaced by fuel from the Middle East.

European gas oil futures prices for deliveries in December 2023 fell to $737 per ton on April 4 down from $776 on January 3 and a peak of $906 on June 9, 2022.

Prices for gas oil have been falling faster than for crude petroleum as fears about shortages caused by the war and the sanctions imposed in response fade.

The premium for gas oil over Brent, both delivered in December 2023, the gross refining margin or “crack spread”, has been narrowing consistently for the last six months.

The crack narrowed to $134 per ton on April 4 down from $191 at the start of 2023 and a peak of $254 on October 10, 2022.

Gas oil and other middle distillates account for more than 45% of all petroleum consumed in the European Union and are the most cyclically sensitive oil products.

But manufacturers across the eurozone have reported business activity has been falling for nine months since June 2022 according to purchasing managers’ surveys.

In the U.S., the spread for ultra-light sulfur diesel over Brent delivered in December 2023, narrowed to $205 per ton on April 4 down from $261 at the start of 2023 and a peak of $316 on Oct. 13, 2022.

U.S. manufacturers have reported business activity has been falling for five months since November 2022 according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s purchasing survey.

Major U.S. railroads hauled 10% fewer shipping containers in the first 12 weeks of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, according to the Association of American Railroads.

At the same time, the largger producer’s distillate exports have successfully been re-routed to destinations in the Middle East, Africa and South America, following the imposition of sanctions by the European Union on Feb. 5.

In turn, Europe’s distillate requirements have been backfilled by diesel exported from the Middle East, as well as smaller volumes from Asia and North America, easing concerns about sanctions-driven shortages.

Rising inventories

Distillate inventories have started to accumulate in Europe, North America and Asia, after depleting most of the time between the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2022.

Europe’s distillate stocks were still 40 million barrels (-10% or -1.35 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average at the end of February 2022.

But the deficit had narrowed from 63 million barrels (-15% or -2.05 standard deviations) at the end of June 2022, according to data from Euroilstock.

U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories were 18 million barrels (-14% or -1.08 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average on March 31.

But the deficit had narrowed from 31 million barrels (-22% or -2.05%) on Oct. 7, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In both Europe and the U.S., the accumulation of distillate inventories has coincided with the decline in manufacturing and freight activity.

In Singapore, distillate inventories have risen in 12 of the 15 most recent weeks by a total of 3 million barrels, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.

Stocks are still 1.5 million barrels (-14% or -0.83 standard deviations) below the ten-year seasonal average but the deficit has narrowed from 3 million barrels (-31% or -1.35 standard deviations) on Dec. 18.

Intensifying downturn

Forward-looking data on industrial orders indicates manufacturing and freight activity is likely to decline further in the next several months, especially in Europe and North America.

The full impact of interest rate rises by major central banks over the last 12 months, and more recently tighter credit conditions following the banking crisis, have yet to filter through to households and businesses.

As it does, slackening industrial activity is likely to keep downward pressure on distillate consumption at least through the second quarter and probably the third quarter.

The deteriorating outlook for distillate use and crack spreads are likely to have contributed to the decision by Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC+ on April 2 to announce a reduction in crude output.

But recessionary headwinds are intensifying in North America and Europe as persistent inflation hits households and higher interest rates hit both consumers and corporate borrowers.

U.S. service sector firms and other non-manufacturing businesses appear to be following manufacturers into a significant slowdown, based on the latest non-manufacturing business survey by the ISM.

For the time being, distillate stocks are still relatively low after the unprecedented drawdown between 2020 and 2022, which has kept cracking margins well above the long-term average.