從6月1日開始，美國WTI米德蘭原油加入布倫特一攬子原油等級(jí)

布倫特原油過去由5個(gè)產(chǎn)自北海5個(gè)油田的原油等級(jí)組成

將美國WTI米德蘭原油納入布倫特一攬子能源等級(jí)體系增加了額外的交易量，并確保了基準(zhǔn)的穩(wěn)健性

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，從6月1日開始，美國WTI米德蘭原油將成為構(gòu)成全球交易量最大基準(zhǔn)合約的布倫特一攬子原油等級(jí)的一部分。

這將是第一個(gè)被納入布倫特一攬子原油等級(jí)的非歐洲原油等級(jí)，突顯了美國頁巖革命給全球石油市場(chǎng)帶來的變化。

全球大型評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)石油市場(chǎng)價(jià)格報(bào)告的維拉·布萊曾在2020年表示：“自2015年美國原油出口重啟以來，美國WTI米德蘭原油已成為歐洲煉油廠的基本等級(jí)，也是北海石油市場(chǎng)的一個(gè)核心部分。”

布萊補(bǔ)充說，將WTI米德蘭原油納入布倫特一攬子原油等級(jí)，“將提供額外的交易量，并確保布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在未來十年乃至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)保持強(qiáng)勁”。

彭博新聞社3年前報(bào)道了該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)將美國原油納入布倫特基準(zhǔn)的計(jì)劃，但可以理解的是，這些計(jì)劃因疫情暴發(fā)而失去了關(guān)注。但現(xiàn)在，疫情不再是所有地方的頭號(hào)新聞，該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)的計(jì)劃重新進(jìn)入了新聞?lì)I(lǐng)域，從6月1日開始，這一變化已成為事實(shí)。

布倫特原油過去由布倫特、埃科菲斯克、特羅爾、福蒂斯和奧塞貝格5個(gè)北海油田生產(chǎn)的5個(gè)等級(jí)原油組成。但這5個(gè)油田的原油日總產(chǎn)量已從2020年底的約85萬桶降至不足70萬桶。

與此同時(shí)，美國出口的原油在不到10年的時(shí)間里飆升了700%以上。從2015年底出口禁令解除后的每天約50萬桶，到目前為止，美國原油日出口量已經(jīng)擴(kuò)大到400多萬桶。

美國每天運(yùn)往歐洲的原油已經(jīng)超過100萬桶，3月份更達(dá)到125萬桶。這種情況不太可能在短期內(nèi)改變。  

該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)原油和燃料油市場(chǎng)主管4月份曾對(duì)路透社表示，由于其煉油資源與多數(shù)北海原油等級(jí)相似，美國WTI米德蘭原油毫無疑問是最佳候選者。

與布倫特、埃科菲斯克、特羅爾、福蒂斯和奧塞貝格油田的產(chǎn)量不同，美國WTI米德蘭原油的產(chǎn)量在過去十年中增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，因此WTI米德蘭原油也是最佳候選者。通過將WTI米德蘭原油納入布倫特一攬子原油等級(jí)，該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)將使該籃子更準(zhǔn)確地代表石油實(shí)物貿(mào)易狀況。

然而，更有趣的部分是WTI米德蘭原油的加入將如何影響價(jià)格。一些分析人士認(rèn)為，由于美國原油價(jià)格更便宜，美國原油的加入將使布倫特原油整體價(jià)格隨之下降。其他人則指出，這將增加美國原油對(duì)全球油價(jià)的影響。

IBC Private Wealth美國高級(jí)能源交易員麗貝卡·巴賓在4月份對(duì)路透社表示：“布倫特原油的底線是，它將更多地受到美國基本面因素的影響，比如戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備的釋放和二疊紀(jì)盆地的產(chǎn)量。”

薩里清潔能源公司主管Adi Imsirovic本周告訴《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》：“一旦這成為一個(gè)基準(zhǔn)，就會(huì)對(duì)所有其他等級(jí)原油產(chǎn)生影響。這種影響將持續(xù)下去，不僅因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在布倫特基準(zhǔn)原油中增加了一個(gè)美國原油等級(jí)。這是因?yàn)槊绹脑蜕a(chǎn)，即使以較慢的速度增長(zhǎng)，也將繼續(xù)比歐洲的原油生產(chǎn)強(qiáng)勁得多。”

畢竟，英國潛在的未來首相剛剛發(fā)誓，如果他的工黨贏得下次選舉，他將禁止在北海開采新的石油和天然氣。也許在未來，布倫特原油將變得更加國際化。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Crude Joins Biggest Oil Benchmark

·     Starting today, WTI Midland will be added to the Brent basket of crude grades.

·     Brent used to be made up of five oil grades, produced at five North Sea fields.

·     The inclusion of WTI to the Brent baskets adds additional volume and ensures the robustness of the benchmark.

Starting today, U.S. oil will be part of the Brent crude basket that underlies the world's most traded benchmark contract.

It will be the first non-European grade included in the basket, highlighting the change that the U.S. shale revolution brought about for the global oil market.

"Since the restart of U.S. crude exports in 2015, WTI Midland has become a baseload grade for European refiners and a core part of the North Sea oil market," Vera Blei, who is in charge of oil market price reporting at the top rating agency, said in 2020.

At the time, she added that the inclusion of WTI to the Brent basket "would provide additional volume and ensure the continued robustness of Dated Brent for the next decade and beyond."

Bloomberg reported on the ratings agency's plans to include U.S. crude in the Brent benchmark three years ago, but these plans understandably lost the spotlight to Covid. But now that the pandemic is not the number-one news everywhere,its plans re-entered the news space and, beginning today, the change is a fact.

Brent used to be made up of five oil grades, produced at five North Sea fields: Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. But the combined production of these five fields has fallen to less than 700,000 bpd from some 850,000 bpd in late 2020.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil sold abroad has soared by more than 700% in less than ten years. From about half a million barrels daily right after the export ban was lifted at the end of 2015, to date, U.S. crude oil exports have expanded to over 4 million barrels daily.

U.S. crude arriving in Europe specifically has topped 1 million barrels daily, reaching 1.25 million bpd in March. This is unlikely to change anytime soon as the EU, to its own displeasure perhaps, still uses quite a lot of oil and has to get it from somewhere that is not the largger producer. What better source than the U.S.?

"WTI Midland is the best candidate for this because it already has a fairly similar refining slate to most of the North Sea grades," said its director for crude and fuel oil markets in April, speaking to Reuters.

It is also the best candidate because its production has been growing strongly in the past decade, unlike the production of Brent, Ekofisk, Troll, Forties, and Oseberg. By including WTI Midland in the Brent basket, this top rating agency will make that basket more accurately representative of the physical oil trade situation.

The more interesting part, however, is how the addition of WTI Midland would affect prices. Some analysts argue that, because it is cheaper, the addition of the U.S. crude will bring overall Brent prices down with it. Others note that the addition would increase the influence of U.S. events on global oil prices.

"Bottom line for Brent is that it will be much more influenced by U.S. fundamentals such as Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and Permian production," Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at IBC Private Wealth US, told Reuters in April.

"once you become a benchmark, you have influence over all the other grades of crude," Surrey Clean Energy director Adi Imsirovic told the Wall Street Journal this week.

This influence will continue, not only because there is now a U.S. crude grade added to the Brent benchmark. It is because U.S. oil production, even at a slower growth rate, will continue to be much stronger than European production.

After all, Britain's potential future Prime Minister just vowed to ban new oil and gas licensing for the North Sea if his Labour Party wins the next elections. Perhaps in the future, Brent crude will become even more international.