據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)6月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)分析師周一表示，美國(guó)原油出口已接近3月觸及的歷史高位，下個(gè)月應(yīng)會(huì)進(jìn)一步受到沙特阿拉伯大幅減產(chǎn)的提振，并指出這也將進(jìn)一步耗盡一直徘徊在歷史低點(diǎn)附近的美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存。

石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)組織歐佩克事實(shí)上的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人沙特阿拉伯周日表示，7月份將減產(chǎn)約10%，即100萬(wàn)桶/日，至900萬(wàn)桶/日。其表示，可能會(huì)維持減產(chǎn)，以支持因擔(dān)心潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退而下跌的油價(jià)。

據(jù)分析師表示，此舉為美國(guó)和拉丁美洲對(duì)歐洲和亞洲的石油出口小幅增加打開了大門，并讓美國(guó)生產(chǎn)商重新相信，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退導(dǎo)致需求下降，沙特將提供一個(gè)價(jià)格底線。

數(shù)據(jù)提供商Kpler的石油分析師馬特·史密斯表示，這應(yīng)該激勵(lì)美國(guó)出口增加，鑒于夏季煉油活動(dòng)即將達(dá)到峰值，美國(guó)出口似乎將面臨下行壓力。

因極具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的美國(guó)價(jià)格提升了需求，美國(guó)3月份的石油出口達(dá)到了歷史最高水平的450萬(wàn)桶/日。出口約占美國(guó)產(chǎn)量的三分之一，盡管該國(guó)原油庫(kù)存已降至8.15億桶的低點(diǎn)附近。

沙特阿拉伯在5月早些時(shí)候?qū)嵤┝?0萬(wàn)桶/日的減產(chǎn)后，愿意深化減產(chǎn)，這將影響沙特的出口，而沙特的出口通常在夏季下降。

紐約桑基研究公司（Sankey Research）的獨(dú)立分析師保羅·桑基(Paul Sankey)表示，重要的是，他們?cè)谙募旧程貒?guó)內(nèi)需求達(dá)到頂峰時(shí)減產(chǎn)，這意味著他們將削減出口。

該消息傳出后，美國(guó)石油基準(zhǔn)CLc1和全球布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)分別上漲約1美元/桶。周一，布倫特原油LCOc1的交易價(jià)格約為77.28美元，低于沙特阿拉伯為其政府預(yù)算提供資金所需的每桶約80美元。

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量全年都在小幅上升，預(yù)計(jì)本月將達(dá)到571萬(wàn)桶/天。但其相對(duì)緩慢的增長(zhǎng)速度使美國(guó)基本上不在歐佩克對(duì)最新減產(chǎn)的考慮范圍之內(nèi)。

得克薩斯州頁(yè)巖公司Tall City Exploration的首席執(zhí)行官M(fèi)ike Oestmann表示，歐佩克的“決定支持近期小幅提價(jià)，并可能使長(zhǎng)期提價(jià)提前一點(diǎn)”。并補(bǔ)充道，但（對(duì)鉆探的）近期影響充其量是中等的。

然而，過去幾個(gè)月，產(chǎn)能大國(guó)產(chǎn)量和出口的不確定性、高運(yùn)費(fèi)以及WTI和布倫特原油價(jià)格之間的窄幅價(jià)差削弱了美國(guó)原油出口的經(jīng)濟(jì)性，可能會(huì)限制出口。

郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)

原文如下：

US Crude Oil Exports to Gain Tail Winds from Saudi July Output Cut

U.S. crude oil exports, already running close to a record level hit in March, should get a further boost next month from deep production cuts in Saudi Arabia, analysts said on Monday, noting that this will also further deplete U.S. crude inventories, which have been hovering near historic lows.

Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of oil producer group OPEC, said on Sunday it would drop its production by about 10%, or 1 million barrels per day (bpd), to 9 million bpd in July. It said it might sustain the cut to support oil prices that have dropped due to worries about a potential economic recession.

The move opens the door for modest gains in U.S. and Latin American shipments to Europe and Asia, analysts said, and gives U.S. producers new confidence that Saudi Arabia will provide a price floor should a recession clip demand.

"This could and should incentivize higher U.S. exports, which were looking like they would be under downward pressure given the looming peak of summer refining activity," said Matt Smith, an oil analyst at data provider Kpler.

U.S. oil exports touched a record 4.5 million bpd in March with China's growing oil purchases and competitive U.S. pricing lifting demand. The exports are about a third of U.S. production, even as the country's crude oil stocks are down near the low levels recorded at 815 million barrels.

Saudi Arabia's willingness to deepen its output cuts — after an earlier 500,000 bpd trim effective in May — will dig into the Kingdom's exports, which typically fall in summer.

"It's significant that they cut in summer (when) Saudi domestic demand is at a peak. To me, it says they'll cut exports," said Paul Sankey, an independent analyst at Sankey Research in New York.

U.S. oil benchmark CLc1 and global Brent benchmark each climbed about $1 per barrel on the news. Brent LCOc1 traded at about $77.28 on Monday, below the about $80 per barrel that Saudi Arabia needs to fund its government budget.

U.S. shale oil production has been inching higher all year and is forecast to hit 5.71 million bpd this month. But its relatively slow rate of growth has left the U.S. largely out of OPEC's calculations for the latest cuts.

OPEC's "decision supports some modest price increase near term and may bring that long term increase forward a bit," said Mike Oestmann, chief executive of Tall City Exploration, a Texas shale firm. "But the near-term impact (on drilling) is moderate at best," he added.

Uncertainty around the largger producer's output and exports, high freight rates and a narrow spread between WTI and Brent prices that weakened the economics of shipping U.S. crude abroad in the last couple of months could, however, limit exports.