據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年7月13日報道，新西蘭現(xiàn)有氣田的天然氣儲量的可采時間不足10年，這引發(fā)了人們對該國未來能源供應(yīng)安全性的質(zhì)疑。

新西蘭商業(yè)、創(chuàng)新和就業(yè)部在惠靈頓表示，到2022年底，新西蘭探明和概算天然氣儲量下降了17%至1635拍焦耳。該部門表示，這一下降反映了去年145拍焦耳的國內(nèi)天然氣使用量，以及對估計儲量的修正。

該部還表示：“根據(jù)過去10年平均200拍焦耳的天然氣使用量，估計目前本國天然氣儲量首次降至10年剩余使用量以下水平。”盡管天然氣使用量低于這一水平且還在下降，預(yù)計到2027年天然氣產(chǎn)量將低于2022年的天然氣使用量。

新西蘭正試圖通過補(bǔ)貼電動汽車和更換燃煤鍋爐來遏制化石燃料的使用。新西蘭政府在2018年禁止了新的海上油氣勘探，并希望到2030年實現(xiàn)100%可再生能源發(fā)電。

目前，新西蘭超過80%的電力來自水力、風(fēng)能和地?zé)幔溆嗟闹饕侨細(xì)獍l(fā)電，當(dāng)湖泊蓄水量下降時，燃?xì)獍l(fā)電提供了安全保障。

代表天然氣勘探商和用戶立場的新西蘭能源資源協(xié)會首席執(zhí)行官約翰·卡內(nèi)基說：“天然氣是我們能源結(jié)構(gòu)中至關(guān)重要的組成部分，在依賴天氣的可再生能源無法自給自足的情況下，天然氣可以填補(bǔ)空缺。什么樣的可大規(guī)模負(fù)擔(dān)得起的替代可再生能源，可能填補(bǔ)目前預(yù)計在不到8年的時間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的空白？警鐘應(yīng)該敲響了。”

新西蘭商業(yè)、創(chuàng)新和就業(yè)部表示，天然氣使用量在2022年出現(xiàn)下降，部分原因是梅賽尼斯公司的甲醇工廠封存和馬斯登角煉油廠的關(guān)閉，以及有利水電條件所導(dǎo)致的。

李峻 譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

New Zealand's Gas Reserves Could Be Used Up in 10 Years: Government

New Zealand has less than 10 years of natural gas available in its existing fields, raising questions about the security of future energy supply.

The nation’s proven and probable gas reserves fell 17 percent to 1,635 petajoules at the end of 2022, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment said Thursday in Wellington. The decline reflects gas use of 145 petajoules last year plus revisions to estimated reserves, it said.

“Estimated gas reserves have now dropped below 10 years of remaining use for the first time, based on an average gas use of 200 petajoules over the last ten years,” the ministry said. Even though gas use is less than that, and declining, production is expected to drop below 2022 gas use in 2027, it said.

New Zealand is trying to curb the use of fossil fuels by subsidizing the take up of electric vehicles and the replacement of coal-fired boilers. The government banned new offshore oil and gas exploration in 2018 and it wants electricity generation to become 100 percent renewable by 2030.

The opposition National Party has pledged to lift the exploration ban if it wins the October election.

Currently more than 80 percent of power comes from hydro, wind and geothermal sources with the remainder largely gas-fired generation, which provides security when lake storage levels drop.

Gas “is a vital component in our energy mix and picks up the slack when weather-dependent renewables cannot get there on their own,” said John Carnegie, chief executive of Energy Resources Aotearoa, which represents gas explorers and users. “What affordable alternative renewable energy source at scale can possibly fill the gap now forecast to emerge in less than eight years’ time? Alarm bells should be ringing.”

The ministry said gas use fell in 2022 due in part to the mothballing of Methanex Corp.’s methanol plant, closure of the Marsden Point oil refinery and a decline in gas use for electricity generation due to favorable conditions for hydro.