據美國鉆井網站2023年8月8日報道，盡管今年上半年全球對常規油氣勘探的投資不斷增加，但所發現的油氣儲量卻降至新低。

挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司睿咨得能源公司（Rystad）在發給美國鉆井網站的一份新報告中強調了這一點，并補充說，其估計顯示，今年上半年，全球勘探公司發現了26億桶油當量的油氣儲量，Rystad表示，這比去年上半年發現的45億桶油當量油氣儲量減少42%。

Rystad在新聞稿中透露，今年1月至6月全球獲得55個新發現，“而去年上半年的新發現為80個”。 Rystad在新聞稿中指出，這意味著今年每個新發現的平均發現量為4700萬桶油當量，低于去年同期的5600萬桶油當量。

在新聞稿中，Rystad表示，“在尋找新資源的過程中”，勘探公司正在優先考慮海上領域。 Rystad在新聞稿中強調，今年迄今為止，海上行業占勘探總支出的95%左右，但僅占已發現儲量的三分之二左右。

Rystad透露，今年全球常規勘探支出預計將超過500億美元。這一數字在去年低于500億美元，在2021年略高于400億美元。

Rystad上游研究副總裁Aatisha Mahajan在一份公司聲明中表示：“上游公司正面臨一段不確定時期。”

Mahajan補充說：“上游公司渴望利用對化石燃料日益增長的需求，尋找更多的資源，但最近的結果并不樂觀。”

“如果勘探工作在今年剩下的時間里繼續取得令人印象深刻的結果，那么今年可能會因為錯誤的原因而突破歷史新高。”Mahajan繼續說道。

儲量大國、海上發現排名與高影響力井

Rystad在新聞稿中表示，到目前為止，圭亞那在今年已發現的油氣儲量方面處于領先地位，為6.03億桶油當量。根據Rystad的數據，土耳其以3.8億桶油當量排名第二，尼日利亞以2.96億桶油當量排名第三，納米比亞以2.87億桶油當量排名第四，并強調“隨著我們更好地了解儲量”，這些估計數有可能增加。

Rystad在新聞稿中指出，海上發現相對均勻地分布在超深水、深水和大陸架上。Rystad補充說，預計今年剩余時間的勘探活動將增加，特別是在超深水市場，“預計與去年相比將增長27%”。

Rystad在新聞稿中列出了今年1月至6月海上鉆井活動排名前15位的盆地。根據統計數據，美國墨西哥灣深水區排名第一，挪威/英國的維京地塹排名第二，墨西哥的蘇雷特盆地排名第三。

Rystad在新聞稿中表示，其研究表明，今年全球預計將鉆31口高影響力井。到目前為止，已經完鉆了13口高影響力井，6口高影響力井正在鉆進中，12口高影響力井仍在籌劃中，Rystad補充說，“在13口已完鉆的高影響力井中，只有4口高影響力井鉆遇到了碳氫化合物，成功率僅為31%”。

石油巨頭的勘探支出

Rystad在發布會上表示，埃克森美孚公司、英國石油公司、殼牌公司、道達爾能源公司、埃尼公司和雪佛龍公司預計今年將在勘探上花費約70億美元，并補充說這比去年高出約10%。

Rystad在發布會上指出，預測顯示，未來幾個月大型石油公司的勘探支出將占全球勘探總支出的14%左右。然而，Rystad在新聞稿中透露，今年預計全球勘探支出的一半以上將來自國家石油公司和擁有國際投資組合的國家石油公司。

今年5月，Rystad在其網站上發布的一份聲明中指出，對全球能源可靠性的擔憂正在引發石油和天然氣投資的激增，但警告說，這種增長只是暫時的。

Rystad在聲明中表示：“爆發地緣政治沖突后，去年和今年全球對化石燃料的預期投資激增了1400億美元。”

Rystad補充說：“去年之前兩年的總開支預計為9450億美元，但由于戰爭導致物資短缺和價格飆升，預計開支已躍升至近1.1萬億美元。”

“在1400億美元的增長中，頁巖生產以800億美元的額外開支增長吸引了大部分關注，增加了30%，油田服務的開支上漲了近50%。海上生產開支增長了400億美元，而其他陸上活動開支增加了200億美元。”

2022年是表現突出的一年

今年1月，伍德麥肯茲在其網站上發布的一份聲明中表示，全球油氣勘探行業在2022年是其十多年來最強勁的一年。

伍德麥肯茲在聲明中表示：“伍德麥肯茲的《油氣勘探：2022年回顧》報告指出，2022年勘探井數量不到疫情前幾年的一半，但200億桶油當量的總產量與2013—2019年的平均年產量相當。”

伍德麥肯茲全球勘探研究總監朱莉·威爾遜在聲明中指出：“2022年是勘探領域表現突出的一年。”

“銷量不錯，但不是特別好。然而，勘探者能夠通過戰略選擇和專注于最佳和最大的遠景構造來獲得極高價值。”

威爾遜繼續說道：“這些發現為企業的投資組合帶來了更高質量的碳氫化合物，使他們能夠通過取代不太有利的石油和天然氣供應來減少碳排放，同時也滿足了世界的能源需求。”

李峻 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Conventional Discovered Oil and Gas Volumes Falling to New Lows|

Despite rising investments in conventional oil and gas exploration, discovered volumes are falling to new lows.

That’s what Rystad Energy research shows, the company highlighted in a new release sent to Rigzone, adding that its estimates show that in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which the company said was 42 percent lower than the first half of 2022 total of 4.5 billion boe.

Rystad revealed in the release that 55 discoveries have been made from January to June this year, “compared to 80 in the first six months of last year”. The company noted in the release that this means discoveries in 2023 have averaged 47 million boe, which it said is lower than the 56 million boe per discovery for the same period in 2022.

In the release, Rystad stated that, “in the hunt for new resources”, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector. The offshore industry accounted for about 95 percent of exploration spending this year to date, but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes, the company highlighted in the release.

In a chart included in the publication, Rystad revealed that annual global conventional exploration spending is expected to top $50 billion in 2023. This figure came in below $50 billion in 2022 and just above $40 billion in 2021, according to the chart.

“Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty,” Aatisha Mahajan, the Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement.

“They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster,” Mahajan added.

“If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons,” the VP continued.

Top Countries, Offshore Discovery Type, HI Wells

Guyana leads the way in discovered volumes so far in 2023, with 603 million boe, Rystad outlined in the release. Turkey ranks second with 380 million boe, Nigeria lies third with 296 million boe, and Namibia places fourth with 287 million boe, according to Rystad, which highlighted that there is potential for these estimates to grow “as we better understand the reserves”.

Offshore discoveries are spread relatively evenly between ultra-deepwater, deepwater, and shelf finds, Rystad noted in the release. The company added that it expects increased activity in the remainder of 2023, especially in the ultra-deepwater market, “with projected growth of 27 percent versus 2022 in terms of spud wells”.

In another chart included in the release, Rystad ranked the top 15 basins by offshore well spud activity from January to June this year. The U.S. Gulf deepwater was top, the Viking Graben in Norway/UK was second, and Mexico’s Sureste was third, according to the chart.

Rystad said in the release its research shows that 31 high-impact wells are expected to be drilled this year. So far, 13 have been completed, six are ongoing, and 12 remain in the pipeline, the company highlighted, adding that “only four of the 13 completed wells encountered hydrocarbons, a measly 31 percent success rate”.

Spending

ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Chevron are expected to spend about $7 billion this year on exploration, Rystad outlined in the release, adding that this is about 10 percent higher than last year.

Rystad noted in the release that its forecasts show that the majors will contribute about 14 percent of total global exploration spending in the coming months. More than half of the projected exploration spending in 2023 will come from national oil companies and national oil companies with international portfolios, however, the company revealed in the release.

In a statement posted on its site back in May, Rystad noted that global energy reliability concerns are triggering a surge in oil and gas investments but warned that this uptick is only temporary.

“After the conflicts, expected investments in fossil fuels in 2022 and 2023 surged by $140 billion, Rystad Energy research shows,” Rystad said in the statement.

“Before the conflicts, the two-year total was projected at $945 billion, but as the war sparked shortages and sky-high prices, expected spending has jumped to almost $1.1 trillion,” the company added.

“Of the $140 billion growth, shale production attracted most of the limelight with an additional $80 billion increase, as activity climbed 30 percent and pricing for oilfield services jumped nearly 50 percent. Offshore production accounted for $40 billion in growth, while other onshore activities expanded by an additional $20 billion,” Rystad continued.

2022 A Standout Year

The global oil and gas exploration sector had its strongest year in 2022 in more than a decade, Wood Mackenzie said in a statement posted on its site back in January this year.

“Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Oil and gas exploration: 2022 in review’ report states that exploration well numbers were less than half the numbers during pre-pandemic years, yet the total volume of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent matched the average annual volumes of 2013-2019,” the company said in the statement.

“2022 was a standout year for exploration,” Julie Wilson, the Director of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, noted in the statement.

“Volumes were good, but not stellar. However, explorers were able to drive very high value through strategic selection and focusing on the best and largest prospects,” Wilson added.

“The discoveries bring higher-quality hydrocarbons into companies’ portfolios, allowing them to reduce carbon by displacing less advantaged oil and gas supplies while also meeting the world’s energy needs,” Wilson went on to state.