???? 據(jù)2月27日Rigzone報(bào)道，油價(jià)創(chuàng)下去年11月以來最大跌幅，美元走強(qiáng)以及圍繞通脹的擔(dān)憂令創(chuàng)下了今年以來最好表現(xiàn)的原油市場承壓。

????周五，紐約期貨市場下跌3.2%，美元走強(qiáng)降低了以美元計(jì)價(jià)的大宗商品的吸引力。然而，由于全球庫存趨緊、需求回升，美國原油基準(zhǔn)2月仍實(shí)現(xiàn)了近18%的漲幅。根據(jù)美國政府的數(shù)據(jù)，這是2020年美國國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量四年來首次下降。

????Tyche Capital Advisors全球宏觀計(jì)劃主管Tariq Zahir表示:“從我們最近看到的走勢來看，價(jià)格下行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要大一些。要想繼續(xù)走高，需求必須大幅回升。”

????原油價(jià)格創(chuàng)下今年以來同期最大漲幅，部分原因是歐佩克+產(chǎn)量限制有助于消耗全球庫存。此外，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，最近前所未有的寒流導(dǎo)致美國數(shù)百萬桶原油停產(chǎn)，這意味著石油市場的供應(yīng)比此前預(yù)計(jì)的每天短缺約10萬桶還要多。隨著北海油田進(jìn)行大規(guī)模維護(hù)，供應(yīng)短缺可能在未來幾個(gè)月惡化。

????歐佩克及其盟友將決定石油產(chǎn)量水平，盡管俄羅斯已經(jīng)表示，它傾向于進(jìn)一步減少減產(chǎn)，但該國2月的石油產(chǎn)量低于其歐佩克+目標(biāo)，這意味著它未能充分利用1月份歐佩克+會(huì)議后提供的更慷慨的配額。

????總部位于康涅狄格州斯坦福德的Tradition Energy主管加里?坎寧安(Gary Cunningham)表示:“我們都知道，歐佩克恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)的意向正在籠罩著市場。全球石油供應(yīng)的持續(xù)下降將取決于歐佩克恢復(fù)多少產(chǎn)量，以及伊朗的石油產(chǎn)量。”

????在價(jià)格方面，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油4月份交割價(jià)格下跌2.03美元，結(jié)算價(jià)為每桶61.50美元；美國基準(zhǔn)原油價(jià)格本周上漲3.8%，將于周五到期的4月份布倫特原油結(jié)算價(jià)下跌75美分，收于每桶66.13美元；本周該合約上漲5.1%；交易更為活躍的5月份合約下跌1.69美元，收于每桶64.42美元；周四公債收益率飆升，表明通脹加速可能導(dǎo)致貨幣政策支持力度回落。在疫情期間，貨幣政策支持助推風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)上漲。盡管此后全球債券市場已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)，但如果貨幣政策不那么寬松，可能會(huì)對大宗商品市場產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。

????瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)期貨部門主管鮑勃?耶格爾(Bob Yawger)表示，“原油處于超級超買區(qū)域?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)回調(diào)。此外，投資者“仍然擔(dān)心利率會(huì)走高。”

????在其他石油市場消息方面，洲際交易所表示，它打算繼續(xù)對2022年6月后到期、已持有未平倉合約的布倫特原油相關(guān)合約使用FOB參考價(jià)。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Rigzone

????原文如下：

????Oil Futures Slide As Dollar Gets Stronger

????Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude’s best start to the year on record.

????Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Yet, the U.S. crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return. Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the U.S. government.

????“Prices have a little bit more risk to the downside from the recent run that we’ve seen,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC. “To continue going higher from here, demand has to come back pretty substantially.”

????Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles. Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of U.S. output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance.

????The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels. While Russia has signaled it favors a further easing of production cuts, the country’s oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January’s OPEC+ meeting.

????“We all know the OPEC return to production is looming over the market pretty strongly,” said Gary Cunningham, director at Stamford, Connecticut-based Tradition Energy. Continued declines in global supplies will “depend on how much production OPEC brings back and whether or not the sanctions on Iran are lifted.”

????Prices

????West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel

????The U.S. crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week

????Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel.

????The contract gained 5.1% this week.

????The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel.

????Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic. While global bonds have since stabilized, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.

????“Crude oil was in super overbought territory,” and due for a pullback, said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. Plus, investors are “still anxious about rates ripping higher.”

????Other oil-market news:

????ICE said it intends to continue to use a FOB reference for contracts related to Dated Brent that expire after June 2022 that already have open interest, according to a circular.