???? 據2月24日Investing.com報道，牛頓定律顯示，上升和下降是相對的，原油價格也挺過了一次又一次致命的考驗。不過，新冠肺炎疫苗推出的速度遠不理想，加上美國經濟復蘇的脆弱性，讓看漲石油的人士感到不安。

????值得注意的是，與一年前相比，全球駕車出行、乘飛機出行和乘船旅行的人數持續減少，因此，做長期石油投資的投資者對汽油、航空燃油和重油需求疲軟絲毫不關心。自1月底以來，美國原油每周都在減少，根據政府相關政策，預計未來幾個月煉油商將有更多的需求，因此原油庫存出現下降。

????除了中國和印度，在某種程度上，世界其他地區，特別是美國，煉油商的潛在需求超過了最終燃料用戶的需求。然而，原油和汽油等燃料產品的價格都處于疫情爆發前的高點，但這并不是說石油交易商完全忽視了市場上的所有負面因素。

????上周五，基準價格出現了自1月中旬以來的最大單日跌幅，美國西德克薩斯中質原油價格下跌2%，倫敦布倫特原油價格下跌1.6%，原因是人們擔心，德克薩斯州煉廠生產的中斷，可能會導致煉油廠停產，從而堆積原油庫存。

????但這樣的價格下跌很少，與10月底以來西德克薩斯中質原油和布倫特原油價格暴漲至少70%的巨大漲幅相比，相差甚遠。

????要知道，每一次下滑都伴隨著更高的反彈。

????通常情況下，任何大幅下跌的價格都會被隨后一兩個交易日更大的反彈所抵消。例如，周一WTI對美國1.9萬億美元疫情救助法案的樂觀情緒大漲4%，蓋過了上周五的拋售。

????事實上，正是對這一刺激措施的預期，債券購買熱潮和接近零的利率，導致市場出現了大量廉價資金。其結果是，從股票到幾乎所有種類的大宗商品，從即期交易到對沖基金和機構基金經理的各類投資者所產生的購買，都出現了壓倒性的反彈。

????由于大宗商品的漲勢一直是靠這筆豐厚的收入支撐的，因此，當流入市場的資金達到投資者心目中設定的某種暫時性峰值時，大宗商品的漲勢可能也會受到沖擊。

????實際上，一旦刺激計劃在國會獲得通過，油價可能會出現回調。更糟糕的是，如果該法案由于某種原因在參議院擱淺。在那之前，可以認為，不會發生任何有意義或長期的石油拋售。

????除了讓盡可能多的美國人接種疫苗外，拜登一直高度關注經濟刺激法案，將其列為他上任100天內的首要議程項目。

????3月中旬的刺激目標可能是油價上漲的信號。參議院多數黨領袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)將3月14日定為拜登的疫情法案簽署為法律的目標。這也可能是油價上漲達到短期峰值，并開始大幅回落的目標。

????當然，這些都不是鐵板釘釘的時期，未來三周的能源價格也可能朝任何一個方向走。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)預計，到第一季度末，布倫特原油價格將升至每桶70美元。與此同時，高盛(Goldman Sachs)認為，到第三季度，全球原油基準價格將達到每桶75美元。

????未來一兩周潛在的原油庫存增加可能會對油價構成壓力，尤其是如果德克薩斯州的煉油廠需要比預期更長的時間才能從30年來最嚴重的暴風雪中復蘇，將對美國能源造成嚴重沖擊。

????值得一提的是，新的歐佩克+協議，以及每桶65美元的油價對美國頁巖產業的影響。

????俄羅斯已經在推動下周對擴大后的歐佩克+的生產協議進行月度審議時大幅提高產量，莫斯科是該組織的主要盟友。當歐盟將于4月召開會議，制定新的產量水平時，沙特阿拉伯將不可避免地想要取消額外減產100萬桶的做法。

????從背景來看，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯一直能夠控制住競爭，并堅持承諾減產。總而言之，歐佩克+仍保留著超過600萬桶/天的石油儲備產能。因此，根據國際能源署(International Energy Agency)最新的月度報告，全球石油庫存將在年中回到5年平均水平。去年夏天，隨著需求大幅下降，全球石油庫存一度創下歷史紀錄。

????歐佩克+的增產可能刺激美國頁巖油生產商在一年內首次提高產量，自2020年3月創下1310萬桶/天的紀錄以來，美國頁巖油產量一直在下降。Smith指出，雖然頁巖鉆井公司仍處于現金節約模式，但WTI和布倫特原油價格接近每桶65美元的情況肯定會鼓勵他們增加產量。

????如果油價進入拋售階段，SK Dixit駐印度Kolkata的分析師Sunil Kumar Dixit給出了一些線索，他認為WTI將低至每桶51.60美元，布倫特原油低至每桶58.30美元

????王佳晶 摘譯自 Investing.com

????原文如下：

????Close Of Stimulus Window Might Be Cue For Oil Correction

????Newton’s Law says what goes up, must come down. Those long oil don’t want to hear that, of course.

????Like the proverbial multi-lived cat, the rally in crude oil has outlasted one fatal test after another.

????The far from desirable pace of the COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and the fragility of the US recovery from the pandemic are two examples of cautionary developments that have not bothered oil bulls one bit.

????What’s notable is the indifference shown by the long-oil community to the anemic demand for gasoline, jet fuel and heavy fuel oils as the world continues to take fewer drives, flights and cruises, respectively, compared to a year ago.

????This same group instead points to the weekly drawdowns in US crude seen since the end of January. The declines in crude inventories are occurring as refiners max out fuel products in anticipation of more demand in the coming months based on the immunization targets of the Biden administration and other governments.

????Except for China—and to an extent, India—the rest of the world, especially the United States, is seeing more implied demand from refiners than demand ultimately from end-users of fuels. Yet, prices of both crude and fuel products like gasoline are trading at pre-pandemic highs.

????This isn’t to say oil traders have completely ignored all the negatives in the market.

????Last Friday, benchmark prices fell their most in a single day since mid-January, with US West Texas Intermediate crude losing 2% and London’s Brent 1.6%, on worries that the Arctic blast that disrupted production in Texas could extend to refinery outages that pile up crude stocks.

????But such price declines are few and far between the otherwise humongous gains that have bloated the value of WTI and Brent by at least 70% since the end of October.

????Each Slide Followed By Even Higher Rally

????Often, any considerable slide in prices is offset by an even greater rally in the subsequent session or two. Friday’s selloff, for instance, was eclipsed by Monday’s 4% jump in WTI on optimism over Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill.

????In fact, it’s expectations over this stimulus, combined with the bond-buying bonanza and near-zero interest rates of the Federal Reserve since the start of the pandemic, that has created a flood of cheap money in the markets. The result has been an overpowering rally in equities to commodities of almost all kinds, from buying generated by investors of all types, from day-traders to hedge funds and institutional money managers.

????Since this gravy train is what has been keeping the commodities rally chugging, it’s likely that its run might also hit a bump when the flow of money to the markets reaches some sort of a temporal peak set in the minds of investors.

????In practical terms, a correction in oil might be triggered once the window for Biden’s stimulus closes with its passage through Congress. Or worse, if the bill falters for some reason in the Senate, where Democrats backing the president have an effective majority of just one. Until then, it might be safe to assume that no meaningful or prolonged selloff in oil will happen.

????Biden has been laser-focused on the stimulus bill, making it the number one agenda item of his first 100 days in office, aside from immunizing as many Americans as possible. And the cheerleaders in both commodities and on Wall Street—notwithstanding the NASDAQ-led selloff

????of the past two days—have thrown their lot in with the president.

????Mid-March Target For Stimulus Might Be Cue For Oil

????Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has set Mar. 14 as his target for Biden’s COVID-19 bill to be signed into law. That might also be the target for the oil rally to reach a temporal peak, and for an appreciable retreat to set in.

????Of course, none of this is cast in stone, and energy prices could go either way over the next three weeks. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees Brent up as high as $70 by the end of the first quarter. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, thinks the global crude benchmark will reach $75 by the third quarter.

????Potential crude stockpile builds over the next week or two might weigh on oil prices, especially if refineries in Texas take longer than expected to rebound from the worst snowstorm in three decades to hit the heartland of US energy.

????There’s also the other big question on what the US and Iran could achieve over the next few weeks in negotiations for Tehran to once again export its oil to the world without Trump-era sanctions.

????Of course, the big “if” for this will be whether the Islamic Republic will first meet Biden’s demand to stop all uranium-enrichment—i.e. nuclear-bomb making—efforts to be considered for a deal by the White House.

????

????“This increases our conviction in a tight oil market this summer, when we expect OECD inventories to normalize,” it added, referring to stockpiles in the world’s most developed countries.

????Adding To Worries: New OPEC+ Deal; What $65 Oil Could Do For US Shale

????The OPEC+ output referenced by Goldman Sachs circles back to the observations made earlier this week by my colleague Geoffrey Smith on the seemingly endless oil rally.

????That article notes that Russia is already pushing for a big increase in output at next week’s monthly review of the production pact of the enlarged Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC+, which Moscow is a leading ally of.

????When the bloc meets in April to set new output levels, its leader Saudi Arabia will inevitably want to reverse a unilateral cut of 1 million barrels a day that the kingdom enacted to preserve a unity that was already cracking a month ago.

????For context, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been able to keep their rivalry under control and have stuck to their pledged output cuts. In all, OPEC+ is still withholding over 6 million barrels a day of oil production capacity in reserve. As a result, world stockpiles, which hit record levels as demand plummeted last summer, are due to be back at their five-year average by the middle of the year, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report.

????OPEC+ increases could spur US shale drillers to raise for the first time in a year their production, which has been on the wane since hitting a record high of 13.1 million bpd in March 2020. While shale drillers are still in cash conservation mode, the sight of both WTI and Brent trading at near $65 would definitely be an encouragement to add barrels, Smith noted.

????Should oil enter a selloff phase, how low could it go technically?

????Sunil Kumar Dixit of SK Dixit Charting in Kolkata, India, gives some clues, pegging WTI to as low of $51.60 and Brent at $58.30.