據今日油價網站4月14日消息 伯克利實驗室的一項最新研究顯示，美國電力行業的排放量比15年前預計的水平減少了52%，拜登政府的目標是到2035年使電網脫碳。
能源部勞倫斯伯克利國家實驗室的最新研究分析了歷史趨勢和EIA對電力行業排放量的預測，以了解取得了多大進展。
伯克利實驗室科學家Ryan Wiser是這項研究的主要負責人，他說：“照常預測，從2005年到2020年，二氧化碳年排放量將從24億公噸上升到30億公噸，但2020年的實際排放量降至僅14.5億噸。美國將電力行業的排放量削減了52%，低于預期水平。”
研究顯示，與15年前的預測相比，技術進步和低碳政策是減排的關鍵驅動力。
這項研究稱，這種對排放趨勢的新看法表明，電力行業有可能進一步大幅減排。
Ryan Wiser告訴彭博社記者：“人們經常擔心，能源轉型需要一個世紀，或者至少幾十年。事實上，我們已經走了一半。”
伯克利實驗室的報告稱，盡管如此，挑戰依然存在，包括基礎設施建設和建立大規模經濟可行的能源儲存，以確保可靠的電力供應，而可再生能源在發電量中所占份額將高得多。
在過去幾年中，很大一部分減排是由于燃煤能力的不斷退役，而天然氣是另一種化石燃料，但它燃燒起來比煤更清潔。
2020年，天然氣占美國公用事業規模發電的最大份額，為40.3%，化石燃料占60.3%，煤炭占電力結構的19.3%。
王磊 摘譯自 今日油價
原文如下：
The U.S. Power Sector Has Reduced Emissions By 52%
The U.S. power sector has reduced emissions by 52 percent from levels projected 15 years ago, and is now “halfway to zero,” a New Berkeley Lab study showed, as the Biden Administration is targeting to decarbonize the electricity grid by 2035.
The new research from the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzed historical trends and EIA’s projections for emissions in the power sector to see how much progress has been made.
“Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, who is the lead author of the study. “But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels – we are now ‘halfway to zero.’”
Technology advancement and low-carbon policies were the key drivers in the reduction of the emissions compared to the forecasts made 15 years ago, according to the study.
The research says that this new look at the emissions trends shows that further large reductions in emissions in the power sector are possible.
“There’s often this concern that energy transitions take a century, or at least decades,” Wiser told Bloomberg. “The fact that we’ve marched halfway there is an impressive story,” he added.
Still, challenges remain, including in infrastructure and building up massive economically viable energy storage to ensure reliable power supply when renewables will have a much higher share of generation, Berkeley Lab’s report says.
A large part of the emissions reductions over the past years were due to the continuous coal-fired capacity retirements, at the expense of natural gas—another fossil fuel which, however, burns cleaner than coal.
Natural gas accounted for the largest share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation in 2020, at 40.3 percent, with fossil fuels at 60.3 percent share, also due to coal’s 19.3-percent share of the power mix.
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