據(jù)ICIS-MRC網(wǎng)站6月1日莫斯科報道， 根據(jù)路透援引咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）的聲明稱，全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型正在為價值約14萬億美元的油氣資產(chǎn)帶來不確定性。盡管今年全球流感疫情加劇，但這些資產(chǎn)長期依賴需求的無限增長來抵消風險。

　　其在一份報告中表示，隨著全球從新冠疫情中復(fù)蘇，油氣日需求量將超過2019年創(chuàng)下的1.6億桶石油當量的紀錄。

　　伍德麥肯茲表示，在經(jīng)歷了6年的油價下跌后，上游行業(yè)比以往任何時候都更健康、更精干。他補充稱，今年該行業(yè)在每桶60美元的價格下將產(chǎn)生與2014年油價崩盤前每桶100美元時一樣多的現(xiàn)金流。

　　伍德麥肯茲的副總裁Fraser McKay表示，盡管該行業(yè)已經(jīng)享受了近一個世紀的需求持續(xù)增長，但其如今發(fā)現(xiàn)自己不得不向未來需求和價格高度不確定的世界供應(yīng)石油和天然氣。

　　據(jù)伍德麥肯茲稱，能源逐步轉(zhuǎn)型將令石油日需求在2050年前保持在9000萬桶以上，鼓勵投資于成本更高的供應(yīng)，并在2030年前支撐油價在每桶略高于80美元的水平。

　　然而，如果世界決定到2050年將全球變暖控制在2攝氏度以內(nèi)，石油需求將在2025年之前達到峰值，到2050年下降到3500萬桶/天，比峰值水平低70%。到2030年，布倫特原油均價將達到每桶40美元，此后將繼續(xù)下跌。

　　伍德麥肯茲表示，在這兩種情況下，在亞洲煤炭替代的政策支持下，天然氣需求和價格將保持彈性，并補充道這將吸引更多投資于天然氣生產(chǎn)而不是石油。

　　第一種情況將使液化天然氣價格在 2040 年及以后保持在每百萬英熱單位 8 - 9 美元，而在第二種情況下，液化天然氣價格將保持在每百萬英熱單位7 - 8 美元，然后在2040年后開始下降。

　　郝芬 譯自 ICIS-MRC

　　原文如下：

　　Global energy transition clouds oil-gas outlook despite post-pandemic boost this year

　　Global energy transition is creating uncertainty for an estimated USD14 trillion worth of oil and gas assets that have long depended on an indefinite rise in demand to offset risks despite a pandemic boost this year, reported Reuters with reference to consultancy Wood Mackenzie's statement.

　　As the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, oil and gas demand is set to go beyond the record 160 million barrels of oil equivalent per day reached in 2019, it said in a report.

　　“After six years of weaker prices, upstream is fitter and leaner than ever,” Woodmac said, adding that the sector will generate as much cash flow this year at USD60 per barrel as it did at USD100 prior to the 2014 price crash.

　　While the industry has enjoyed a century of near continuous demand growth, it now finds itself having to supply oil and gas to a world in which future demand and price are highly uncertain, Wood Mackenzie vice president Fraser McKay said.

　　A gradual energy transition would see oil demand staying above 90 million barrels per day to 2050, encouraging investment in costlier supplies and supporting prices at just above USD80 a barrel by 2030, Woodmac said.

　　However, if the world decides to limit global warming to 2 C by 2050, oil demand would peak before 2025 and fall towards 35 million bpd by 2050, 70% below peak levels. Brent would average USD40 a barrel by 2030 and decline after that.

　　In both scenarios, gas demand and prices would remain resilient, supported by coal displacement in Asia, Woodmac said, adding this would draw more investments toward gas production rather than oil.

　　The first scenario would keep liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices at USD8 to USD9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) through 2040 and beyond, while in the second, LNG prices remain robust at USD7 to USD8 per mmBtu, before starting to fall post 2040.

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