???? 據(jù)管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)7月9日倫敦報(bào)道，因消費(fèi)加速，美國(guó)石油庫(kù)存已降至疫情爆發(fā)前五年平均水平以下，但原油生產(chǎn)商對(duì)價(jià)格上漲反應(yīng)遲緩，這表明需要更多供應(yīng)。
????上周，戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備以外的原油和精煉油總庫(kù)存減少了 1000 萬(wàn)桶，與一年前同期相比，現(xiàn)在減少了1.88億桶。
????盡管產(chǎn)品消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇，但在過(guò)去52周中，由于OPEC+和美國(guó)頁(yè)巖公司限制原油產(chǎn)量，原油總庫(kù)存下降了38周。
????根據(jù)美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(U.S. Energy Information Administration)(7月9日每周石油狀況報(bào)告 )的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，庫(kù)存較2015-2019年疫情前五年的平均庫(kù)存水平減少1200萬(wàn)桶，即降幅1%。
????短缺主要集中在原油上，庫(kù)存較平均水平較減少1,500萬(wàn)桶，即降幅3%，而汽油和餾分油仍有少量過(guò)剩(300萬(wàn)桶，即1%)和餾分油(200萬(wàn)桶，即1%)。
????在俄克拉何馬州庫(kù)欣市的NYMEX WTI合約的交付點(diǎn)附近，原油短缺變得特別嚴(yán)重。該地區(qū)的原油庫(kù)存比2016-2020年的五年平均水平低了21%。
????這一缺口導(dǎo)致WTI合約出現(xiàn)了大幅的現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)，近月期貨較第四個(gè)月交付價(jià)高出近2.90美元，這是自2012年以來(lái)的連續(xù)幾周內(nèi)的第7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
????在成品油方面，上周供應(yīng)給國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的汽油量達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的每日1,000萬(wàn)桶，高于前一周的每日920萬(wàn)桶。
????但是，汽油供應(yīng)量從初級(jí)石油系統(tǒng)(煉油廠、進(jìn)口終端、管道和儲(chǔ)油場(chǎng))轉(zhuǎn)移到次級(jí)系統(tǒng)(批發(fā)商和零售商)，而不是機(jī)動(dòng)車駕駛者的實(shí)際消費(fèi)量。
????上周的燃油供應(yīng)可能被7月4日公共假期所影響，供應(yīng)商預(yù)先定位庫(kù)存，讓油輪休息，所以他們可能會(huì)在本周逆轉(zhuǎn)。
????汽油供應(yīng)的一周增幅超過(guò)9%，是過(guò)去30年來(lái)最大的增幅之一，與陣亡將士紀(jì)念日(Memorial Day)之后的增幅類似，這強(qiáng)烈表明這是一個(gè)日歷效應(yīng)。
????汽油供應(yīng)一周的增幅超過(guò) 9 %，是過(guò)去 30 年來(lái)最大的增幅之一，與陣亡將士紀(jì)念日之后的增幅相似，這強(qiáng)烈表明這是一個(gè)日歷效應(yīng)。
????盡管如此，在第一波和第二波疫情爆發(fā)后，隨著企業(yè)重新開(kāi)業(yè)、通勤恢復(fù)和休閑旅游回歸，汽油供應(yīng)量仍呈現(xiàn)溫和上升趨勢(shì)。
????過(guò)去四周供應(yīng)的汽油量比大流行前五年的平均水平低了不到4%，這表明經(jīng)濟(jì)和駕駛模式的恢復(fù)速度比去年更快。
????郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網(wǎng)
????原文如下:
????Perspective: U.S. Petroleum Inventories are Becoming Tight
????U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen below the pre-pandemic five-year average with consumption accelerating but crude producers slow to respond to rising prices, signaling more supply is needed.
????Total stocks of crude and refined products outside the strategic petroleum reserve fell by 10 million barrels last week and are now down by 188 million barrels compared with the same point a year ago.
????Total stocks have fallen in 38 out of the last 52 weeks as OPEC+ and U.S. shale firms limit crude production even as product consumption recovers.
????Inventories are 12 million barrels or 1% below the pre-pandemic five-year average for 2015-2019, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Weekly petroleum status report”, Jul. 9).
????The deficit is concentrated in crude, where inventories are 15 million barrels or 3% below the average, while there are still small surpluses in gasoline (3 million barrels or 1%) and distillates (2 million barrels or 1%).
????The crude shortage has become especially acute around the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI contract at Cushing, Oklahoma, where crude stocks are 21% below the five-year average for 2016-2020.
????The shortfall has pushed the WTI contract into a steep backwardation, with front-month futures trading at a premium of almost $2.90 to the fourth delivery month, which is in the 7th percentile for all weeks since 2012.
????On the refined products side, the volume of gasoline supplied to the domestic market hit a record 10.0 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, surging from 9.2 million bpd the previous week.
????But gasoline supplied measures transfers from the primary petroleum system (refineries, import terminals, pipelines and tank farms) into the secondary system (wholesalers and retailers) rather than actual consumption by motorists.
????Last week’s fuel deliveries were likely distorted by the impending July 4 public holiday, with suppliers pre-positioning stocks and to give tanker drivers a rest day, so they will probably reverse this week.
????The one-week jump in gasoline supplied, more than 9%, was among the largest over the last three decades, and similar to the jump recorded after Memorial Day, which strongly implies it was a calendar effect.
????Nonetheless, the volumes of gasoline supplied are trending gently upwards as businesses re-open, commuting resumes, and leisure travel returns in the wake of the pandemic’s first and second waves.
????The volume of gasoline supplied over the last four weeks has been less than 4% below the pre-pandemic five-year average, suggesting the economy and driving patterns have healed more rapidly than seemed likely last year.
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