據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)7月21日新德里報(bào)道，周二高盛(Goldman Sachs)將第三季度布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期下調(diào)至每桶75美元，較之前的預(yù)期低5美元，由于德?tīng)査托鹿谝咔椴±ぴ觯绊懥诵枨蟆?/p>

　　由于擔(dān)心德?tīng)査凸跔畈《靖腥驹黾訉?duì)需求的打擊，以及歐佩克+協(xié)議提高產(chǎn)量，周一油價(jià)每桶下跌5美元。

　　高盛表示，我們今年下半年石油平衡較之前稍緊，預(yù)計(jì)兩個(gè)月100萬(wàn)桶/日需求受德?tīng)査绊懗^(guò)了歐佩克+產(chǎn)量放緩的增長(zhǎng)所抵消。

　　該行目前預(yù)估第三季短缺量為每日150萬(wàn)桶，此前預(yù)估為每日190萬(wàn)桶。

　　高盛預(yù)計(jì)，第四季度布倫特原油均價(jià)為每桶 80美元，此前預(yù)期為每桶75美元，預(yù)計(jì)今年最后一季度赤字為170萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)稱，石油市場(chǎng)向更高均衡水平的重新定價(jià)遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束，看漲情緒正從需求面轉(zhuǎn)向供應(yīng)面。

　　高盛補(bǔ)充稱，即使疫苗接種未能抑制住院率，這可能導(dǎo)致需求持續(xù)低迷，但在當(dāng)前油價(jià)下，歐佩克+和美國(guó)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量的下降將抵消需求的下降。考慮到德?tīng)査儺惖牟淮_定性，以及相對(duì)于最近的需求增長(zhǎng)，供應(yīng)發(fā)展速度較慢，未來(lái)幾周油價(jià)可能會(huì)繼續(xù)劇烈波動(dòng)。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

　　原文如下:

　　Goldman cuts Q3 Brent forecast to $75 a barrel on Delta demand hit

　　Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reduced its forecast for Brent crude oil to $75 a barrel for the third quarter, $5 lower than its previous estimate, as a surge in Delta variant COVID-19 cases takes a toll on demand.

　　Oil prices fell $5 a barrel on Monday in response to fears over the hit to demand from rising Delta coronavirus infections and an OPEC+ agreement to boost output.

　　"Our oil balances are slightly tighter in 2H21 than previously, with an assumed two-month 1 mb/d demand hit from Delta more than offset by OPEC+ slower production ramp-up," Goldman said.

　　The bank now projects a third-quarter deficit of 1.5 million bpd versus 1.9 million bpd forecast previously.

　　Goldman expects Brent oil prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter from its previous forecast of $75 and sees a deficit of 1.7 million bpd in the final quarter of this year.

　　"The oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side," the bank said.

　　Even if vaccinations fail to curb hospitalisation rates, which could drive a longer slump to demand, the decline would be offset by lower OPEC+ and U.S. shale output given current prices, Goldman added.

　　"Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks, given the uncertainties around Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments relative to the recent demand gains," it said.

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