據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶8月12日消息，美國能源信息署(EIA)在其最新的短期能源展望(STEO)中透露，其2021年和2022年的布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨均價(jià)與上月持平。

　　根據(jù)EIA 8月份的STEO，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格今年平均為68.71美元/桶，明年為66.04美元/桶。EIA 7月份的STEO預(yù)測，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在2021年將平均為68.78美元/桶，在2022年將平均為66.64美元/桶。

　　EIA在其最新的STEO報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格在7月份平均為每桶75美元，較6月份上漲了2美元，較2020年底上漲了25美元。

　　EIA在8月份的STEO報(bào)告中表示:“由于全球石油庫存的穩(wěn)定消耗，布倫特原油價(jià)格今年一直在上漲，2021年上半年平均為180萬桶/天，7月份保持在近140萬桶/天。”

　　“我們預(yù)計(jì)，在2021年剩余時(shí)間里，布倫特原油價(jià)格將保持在當(dāng)前水平附近，8 月至 11 月的平均價(jià)格為每桶 72 美元。然而,到2022年,我們預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+產(chǎn)量持續(xù)增長和美國致密油產(chǎn)量的加速增長以及其他供應(yīng)增長將超過全球石油消費(fèi)增長減速,導(dǎo)致布倫特原油價(jià)格下降到2022年的平均每桶66美元。”EIA 在其STEO中補(bǔ)充道。

　　EIA預(yù)測，2021年歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到平均2650萬桶/天，高于2020年的2560萬桶/天。該組織預(yù)計(jì)，明年歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到平均2870萬桶/天。 EIA最近的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月份美國原油產(chǎn)量為1120萬桶/天。EIA表示，預(yù)計(jì) 10 月產(chǎn)量將相對持平，然后在 11 月和 12 月以及整個(gè) 2022 年開始上升。根據(jù)EIA的數(shù)據(jù)，美國明年的原油產(chǎn)量平均為1180萬桶/天，高于2021年的1110萬桶/天。

　　EIA指出，其最新的 STEO 仍然受到與新冠疫情的持續(xù)復(fù)蘇相關(guān)的高度不確定性的影響。該組織表示，它的預(yù)測假設(shè)了經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長和流動(dòng)性增加，并補(bǔ)充稱，任何可能導(dǎo)致偏離這些假設(shè)的發(fā)展都可能導(dǎo)致能源消耗和價(jià)格偏離其預(yù)測。

　　裘寅 編譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　USA EIA Reveals New Oil Price Forecast

　　The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) kept its Brent spot average prices for 2021 and 2022 flat month on month, the organization’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) has revealed.

　　According to its August STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $68.71 per barrel this year and $66.04 per barrel next year. The EIA’s July STEO forecasted that Brent spot prices would average $68.78 per barrel in 2021 and $66.64 per barrel in 2022.

　　In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $75 per barrel in July, which it noted was up $2 per barrel from June and up $25 per barrel from the end of 2020.

　　“Brent prices have been rising this year as result of steady draws on global oil inventories, which averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (MMbpd) during the first half of 2021 and remained at almost 1.4 MMbpd in July,” the EIA stated in its August STEO.

　　“We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels for the remainder of 2021, averaging $72 per barrel from August through November. However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production - along with other supply growth - will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption and contribute to Brent prices declining to an average of $66 per barrel in 2022,” the EIA added in the STEO.

　　The EIA forecasts that OPEC crude oil production will average 26.5 MMbpd in 2021, which it highlights is up from 25.6 MMbpd in 2020. The organization expects OPEC crude oil production will rise to an average of 28.7 MMbpd next year. Looking at U.S. crude oil production, the EIA’s most recent monthly data shows this output stood at 11.2 MMbpd in May. The EIA said it expects production to be relatively flat through October before it starts rising in November and December and throughout 2022. U.S. crude oil production for next year averages 11.8 MMbpd, up from 11.1 MMbpd in 2021, according to the EIA.

　　The EIA noted that its latest STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The organization says its forecast assumes continuing economic growth and increasing mobility and adds that any developments that would cause deviations from these assumptions would likely cause energy consumption and prices to deviate from its forecast.

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