· 2021年對歐佩克+來說是充滿挑戰的一年，油價開始回升，帶來了難以抗拒的誘惑

· 歐佩克+采取了克制，盡管全球能源價格飆升，但仍拒絕放開限產  

· 由于世界朝著更加綠色的明天前進，歐佩克+的官員指出，如果管理不善，能源轉型可能會導致石油和天然氣投資不足，這可能意味著更高的油價  

據美國彭博新聞社2021年12月31日報道，歐佩克+在過去兩年中做了一些令人驚訝的事情。 首先，在疫情爆發之初，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯兩國領導人在如何應對危機的問題上存在意見分歧，隨后，這兩個國家達成和解，并在歐佩克歷史上最大規模的減產行動中團結起來，以應對疫情造成的需求破壞，這也是前所未有的。

總之，2020年是發生史無前例事件的一年。

但2021年并沒有太大不同。 這對歐佩克+來說2021年是一個挑戰之年，因為油價開始回升，呈現出一種難以抗拒的誘惑，特別是對海灣地區和非洲大陸那些最依賴石油的經濟體來說。 然而，他們還是堅持了增產計劃，每月增加40萬桶/天的原油產量。

這個增產計劃如今仍在實施，至少要延續到2022年1月，屆時歐佩克+可能會重新考慮原油生產計劃，因為一些分析師警告稱，石油供應過剩迫在眉睫。 歐佩克的分析師并不在其中——該卡特爾預計，奧密克戎冠狀病毒對需求的影響將是溫和和暫時的。 但過去兩年，歐佩克已經證明，它可以保持謹慎。

美國彭博新聞社的朱利安?李日前曾提醒我們，自歐佩克+成立以來，這個擴大了的卡特爾就一直面臨著艱巨的任務。 從一開始，歐佩克成員國為了應對美國的頁巖熱潮而決定減產，到2021年，在一波又一波的新冠肺炎疫情中，歐佩克+不得不靈活應對生產，這5年對歐佩克+來說是充滿挑戰的5年。  

鑒于各成員國的優先事項往往不同，這種合作具有挑戰性是意料之中的事。 然而，這一政策在某種程度上還是奏效了，盡管在前進的道路上有一些磕磕絆絆，比如伊拉克無法堅持其生產配額，為此伊拉克不得不受到額外削減配額的“懲罰”。 這很可能使這個集團對未來的任何沖擊都更有彈性。

分析師表示，歐佩克+面臨的第一個挑戰將是供應過剩。 然而，這不會是一個很大的挑戰，因為這種挑戰被視為是暫時的，它只會持續到奧密克戎毒株過去，并假設它會像之前的幾波一樣糟糕，這是不太可能的，因為一個非常務實的原因：大多數政府無法承擔得起又一次長期封鎖。  

正如石油行業觀察人士和歐佩克成員國指出的那樣，一個更大的挑戰是備用產量供應的減少。 根據美國能源信息署（EIA）的數據，歐佩克2022年最后一個季度的備用產量供應可能降至511萬桶/天。 這一數字將大大低于2021年第一季度的900萬桶/天。

美國EIA對備用石油產能的定義是：可以在30天內開始生產，并且產能持續至少90天。 國際能源署（IEA）對備用石油產能定義為可以在90天內啟動生產。

無論定義如何，全球的備用石油生產能力正在下降，因為它不是一個靜態的石油池。未開采的油藏往往會減少資源，這就是為什么當疫情扼殺需求時，那么多石油生產商不愿開始封井的一個重要原因。 一旦你封堵了一口井，此井以后復產可能性不確定。

說到封井，這可能是俄羅斯現在接近其石油生產能力極限的部分原因，而且石油產能比疫情前低得多。 此前，俄羅斯的日產量在1100萬桶以上。

現在，路透社援引俄羅斯石油公司的一篇報道稱，俄羅斯石油日總產量已接近1090萬桶的產能，盡管俄羅斯副總理諾瓦克曾表示，俄羅斯的石油日產量將在5月份反彈至1133萬桶。  

因此，全球大部分的備用石油產能將在歐佩克，更準確地說在中東地區，但即使是這些備用石油產能也需要維護，而維護就意味著投資。 如今，石油生產方面的投資越來越難獲得。

沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼12月早些時候曾表示：“如果在能源方面沒有足夠的支出，我們可能會進入一個危險的階段。” 印度財政部長穆罕默德·賈達安也表達了同樣的看法，他說：“我們非常擔心，如果我們不能謹慎掌控轉型期，世界可能會出現能源短缺。”

對石油生產投資不足發出警告的不僅僅是沙特阿拉伯。 IHS Markit的丹尼爾·耶金說，由于石油和天然氣投資不足，世界正把自己拖進一系列能源危機的角落。 眾所周知，美國石油公司優先考慮的是向投資者返還現金，而不是產量增長，而大型石油公司卻在向低碳能源領域投入數十億美元，以洗刷自己的聲譽。

所有這一切意味著，在能源安全方面，世界可能會面臨更艱難的幾年，特別是在部分地區。 另一方面，由于純粹的基本原因，石油供應仍然緊張，歐佩克+可能會獲得更多的暴利。 當然，如果疫情繼續給我們帶來震驚，總有可能出現另一個需求破壞事件，但歐佩克+已經在那里，并已經這樣做了。歐佩克+會生存下來，甚至可能變得更強。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

2022 Could Be A Great Year For OPEC+ Producers

·    2021 was a challenging year for OPEC+ as prices began to recover, presenting a temptation that has always been difficult to resist.

·     OPEC+ exercised restraint, however, refusing to open the taps even as energy prices skyrocketed across the globe.

·     As the world races towards a greener tomorrow, OPEC+ officials have noted that the energy transition, if not managed well, could lead to underinvestment in oil and gas, which could mean even higher prices. 、

·     OPEC+ did some surprising things in the past two years. First, it broke up at the start of the pandemic with its two leaders—Saudi Arabia and Russia—turning on each other because of differences of opinion on how the crisis needed to be handled. Then the two made up, and the group united around the deepest production cuts in the history of OPEC in response to the demand destruction caused by the pandemic, also unprecedented.

·     All in all, 2020 was a year of unprecedented events.

·     But this year was not that much different. It was a challenging one for OPEC+ as prices began to recover, presenting a temptation that has always been difficult to resist, especially for the most oil-dependent economies in the Gulf and Africa. And yet resist they did, sticking to a production increase plan seen adding 400,000 bpd in combined oil production every month.

This plan is still in action, at least until January, when OPEC+ may reconsider as some analysts warn of looming oil oversupply. OPEC's analysts are not among these—the cartel expects a mild and temporary effect on demand from the omicron variant of the coronavirus. But the cartel has proved in the past two years that it could be cautious.

Bloomberg's Julian Lee earlier this week reminded us that ever since its inception, the extended OPEC+ cartel has had its work cut out for it. From the very beginning, when members decided to reduce production in response to the U.S. shale boom, to this year, when they had to be flexible with production amid wave after wave of Covid-19 infections, it's been a challenging five years for OPEC+.

The challenging nature of the cooperation was only to be expected given the often different priorities of member states. And yet it somehow worked, even with bumps along the road such as Iraq's inability to stick to its production quotas, for which it had to be "punished" by getting additional cut quotas. And this may well have made the group more resilient to any future shocks.

According to analysts, the first challenge would be excess supply. It would not be much of a challenge, however, as it is seen as temporary, only until the omicron wave passes, and assuming it would be as bad as previous waves, which is a bit unlikely for a very pragmatic reason: most governments cannot afford another long lockdown.

A much bigger challenge, as noted by oil industry observers and OPEC members, is dwindling spare production supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, OPEC's spare capacity could fall to 5.11 million bpd in the final quarter of next year. This is down from 9 million bpd in the first quarter of 2021.

The Energy Information Administration defines spare oil production capacity as oil production that can be started within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. The International Energy Agency defines spare capacity as production that can be cranked up in 90 days.

Whatever the definition, the world's spare oil production capacity is falling because it is not a static pool of oil. Oil reservoirs that are not exploited tend to diminish in resources—one big reason why so many oil producers were reluctant to start plugging wells when the pandemic killed demand. once you plug a well, it may or may not return to full or any production.

Speaking of plugging wells, these may well be part of the reason Russia is now near its capacity of producing oil, and it's a much lower level than before the pandemic. Before, Russia was pumping north of 11 million bpd.

Now, according to a Reuters report citing Russian oil companies, total output is nearing capacity at 10.9 million bpd, even though Deputy PM Alexander Novak has argued Russia's oil production will rebound to 11.33 million bpd by May.

Most of the spare capacity, therefore, will be in OPEC, and more precisely, in the Middle East. But even that spare capacity needs maintenance, and maintenance means investment. And investments in oil production are getting harder to come by these days.

"We're heading toward a phase that could be dangerous if there's not enough spending on energy," Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this month. The sentiment was echoed by Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan: "We have very serious concerns that the world could run short of energy if we are not careful in managing the transition."

It's not just the Saudis that are warning about underinvestment, either. IHS Markit's Daniel Yergin said the world is painting itself into a corner featuring a series of energy crunches because of insufficient investment in oil and gas. And it's public knowledge that U.S. oil companies are prioritizing returning cash to investors rather than production growth while Big Oil is pouring billions in low-carbon energy to clean up its reputation.

What all this means is that the world may be in for a few more tough years in terms of energy security, especially parts of it. OPEC+, on the other hand, may be in for some more windfall profits as the supply of oil remains tight for purely fundamental reasons. Of course, there is always the possibility of another demand destruction event in case the pandemic continues to surprise us, but OPEC+ has already been there and has done that. It will survive and maybe even become stronger.

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