據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2022年1月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商繼續(xù)提高產(chǎn)量，美國(guó)明年的石油產(chǎn)量將創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)公布的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，到2023年，美國(guó)石油供應(yīng)將平均每天1241萬(wàn)桶。 EIA在其月度短期能源展望報(bào)告中表示，這將超過(guò)2019年創(chuàng)下的目前每天1230萬(wàn)桶的年度高點(diǎn)。 EIA還將今年的產(chǎn)量預(yù)期下調(diào)至每日1180萬(wàn)桶。

EIA表示，從去年最后一個(gè)季度開(kāi)始，美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將連續(xù)9個(gè)季度增長(zhǎng)。 2019年底，美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量達(dá)到月度峰值，幾個(gè)月后，疫情爆發(fā)撼動(dòng)了石油市場(chǎng)，迫使美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商削減產(chǎn)量。 自那以來(lái)，油價(jià)回升了50%以上，但主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)一直擔(dān)心供應(yīng)恢復(fù)過(guò)快，將月度數(shù)據(jù)保持在疫情前的高點(diǎn)以下。

EIA在月度報(bào)告中表示：“相對(duì)較高的原油價(jià)格應(yīng)該會(huì)為增產(chǎn)提供充足的資金。”EIA預(yù)計(jì)，今年第4季度美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)1200萬(wàn)桶。 美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)原油期貨價(jià)格今年開(kāi)局強(qiáng)勁，自去年底以來(lái)每桶已上漲了5個(gè)多美元。  

EIA還預(yù)計(jì)，今年全球石油日供應(yīng)量將升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.0105億桶。 這一數(shù)字高于去年12月預(yù)測(cè)的1.0093億。 EIA預(yù)計(jì)，到2023年，全球石油日產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步上升至1.028億桶。  

EIA在報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，今年全球石油日消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到1.0052億桶，高于此前估計(jì)的1.0046億桶。 預(yù)計(jì)到2023年，全球石油日消費(fèi)量將躍升至1.023億桶。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)彭博新聞社

原文如下：

EIA expects shale to drive record U.S. oil production in 2023

U.S. annual oil production is set to rise to a record next year as shale producers continue to boost output.  

Oil supply will average 12.41 million barrels a day in 2023, according to the Energy Information Administration. That would surpass the current annual high of 12.3 million barrels a day set in 2019, the EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The agency also lowered its production estimate for this year to 11.8 million barrels a day.

The projected rise in U.S. output would represent nine consecutive quarters of growth, beginning the last three months of 2021, the EIA said. U.S. crude production reached a monthly peak in late 2019, months before the pandemic jolted global markets and forced producers to slash output. Since then oil prices have recovered by more than 50% but major producers have been wary of bringing back supplies too quickly, keeping monthly figures below pre-pandemic highs.

“Relatively high crude oil prices should result in an ample availability of funding to support the production increase,” the EIA said in the monthly report. The agency sees domestic output surpassing 12 million barrels a day from the fourth quarter of this year. Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have been off to a strong start to the year, adding over $5 a barrel since 2021 ended.

The agency also sees global petroleum supply rising to a record this year of 101.05 million barrels a day. That’s an upward revision from last month’s forecast of 100.93 million. The EIA expects global production will rise further to 102.8 million barrels a day in 2023.

Global consumption is set to reach 100.52 million barrels a day this year from its previous estimate of 100.46 million, according to the report. Consumption is expected to jump to 102.3 million barrels a day in 2023.

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