據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月12日消息，在市場消化周三的通脹數(shù)據(jù)之際，所有人的目光都將集中在美聯(lián)儲對通脹數(shù)據(jù)的反應(yīng)上。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(cpi)將上漲7%，創(chuàng)下39年來的新高。包括股票和比特幣在內(nèi)的許多市場今年都承受了壓力，因?yàn)槭袌鲱A(yù)期美聯(lián)儲可能會比此前預(yù)期的更早、更頻繁地加息。

專家認(rèn)為通脹上升是今年最大的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一，因?yàn)橥浭Э乜赡軙治g資產(chǎn)價(jià)值，限制購買力，侵蝕企業(yè)利潤。在一份研究報(bào)告中,高盛的Jan Hatzius警告說, 美國勞動力市場的快速進(jìn)展和 12 月 14 日至 15 日聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會在幾分鐘內(nèi)發(fā)出的強(qiáng)硬信號表明正常化速度加快，央行可能會在今年加息四次，并在 7 月或更早開始其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表徑流過程。

但大宗商品行業(yè)完全不同。

大宗商品在2021年的表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于其他資產(chǎn)類別，人們普遍預(yù)計(jì)到2022年仍將保持競爭力。

事實(shí)上，高盛大宗商品研究全球主管杰弗里?柯里(Jeffrey Currie)重申了他早些時(shí)候的觀點(diǎn)，稱我們僅僅處于長達(dá)10年的大宗商品超級周期的第一輪。

柯里在美國全國廣播公司財(cái)經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)的“Squawk Box”節(jié)目中分析了油價(jià)的最新走勢，他說，包括石油和金屬在內(nèi)的大宗商品市場的基本面仍然令人難以置信地看漲。

據(jù)這位分析師稱，石油市場目前存在2%的巨大需求缺口，庫存比5年移動平均水平低5%左右。他繼續(xù)說，金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供了更多的支持，因?yàn)榛剂先匀徊皇芡顿Y領(lǐng)域的青睞，而ESG（環(huán)境、社會和治理）的逆風(fēng)對該行業(yè)構(gòu)成了重大挑戰(zhàn)，如果生產(chǎn)要跟上需求，就迫切需要新的投資。

瑞銀(UBS)分析師重申了這一點(diǎn)，“相對于油價(jià)，該行業(yè)看起來很便宜。自由現(xiàn)金流收益率非常有吸引力，資本紀(jì)律得到改善，隨著需求復(fù)蘇，該行業(yè)應(yīng)該會受益。”

銅是新的石油

柯里還表示，在過去幾年中，資本完全重新定向，這在很大程度上是由于石油和天然氣行業(yè)的低回報(bào)，資金流正在遠(yuǎn)離舊世界經(jīng)濟(jì)對石油、煤炭、采礦等領(lǐng)域的投資方式，以及可再生能源和 ESG——現(xiàn)在需求不平衡正在暴露出來。

這位高盛大宗商品專家補(bǔ)充稱，股票估值過高和國債收益率較低，令大宗商品對那些對市場的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)心存警惕、但仍在尋找可觀回報(bào)的投資者更具吸引力。換句話說，大宗商品不僅在純回報(bào)基礎(chǔ)上提供了良好的前景，而且還可以很好地對沖不斷增長的市場波動。

高盛繼續(xù)看好原油價(jià)格，并將布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)期從之前的80美元/桶上調(diào)至90美元/桶。

但柯里關(guān)于金屬行業(yè)的評論可能會吸引更多ESG和清潔能源投資者的注意。這位分析師表示，目前大宗商品超級周期的最大受益者是金屬，他將金屬與本世紀(jì)頭十年的石油進(jìn)行了比較，這主要得益于綠色資本支出。柯里說，ESG和清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型是巨大的，幾乎世界上所有國家都在同時(shí)追求清潔能源目標(biāo)，這使得銅成為這個周期中最重要的商品之一。

事實(shí)上，柯里已經(jīng)宣布銅是新的石油，并指出銅在全球脫碳戰(zhàn)略中絕對不可或缺的地位，因?yàn)殂~的短缺已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)。

其他著名的清潔能源專家也同意柯里的觀點(diǎn)。

新能源研究機(jī)構(gòu)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BNEF)表示，能源轉(zhuǎn)型是推動下一個大宗商品超級周期的原因，科技制造商、能源交易商和投資者前景廣闊。事實(shí)上，BNEF估計(jì)，未來30年，全球轉(zhuǎn)型將需要173萬億美元的能源供應(yīng)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資，預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，可再生能源將提供我們能源需求的85%。

清潔能源技術(shù)比化石燃料技術(shù)需要更多的金屬。根據(jù)最近的《歐亞評論》分析, 在凈零排放情景下，銅、鎳、鈷和鋰的價(jià)格可能會在前所未有的持續(xù)時(shí)間內(nèi)達(dá)到歷史峰值,生產(chǎn)總值上升超過2021年 - 2040年期間的4倍,甚至足以媲美原油產(chǎn)品的總價(jià)值。

在凈零排放的情況下，金屬需求的激增可能導(dǎo)致金屬生產(chǎn)價(jià)值增加四倍以上——在接下來的20年里，僅這四種金屬就累計(jì)價(jià)值13萬億美元。這可能會與同期凈零排放情景下的石油產(chǎn)量估值相媲美，從而使這四種金屬在宏觀上與通脹、貿(mào)易和產(chǎn)出相關(guān)，并為大宗商品生產(chǎn)商帶來可觀的意外之財(cái)。

長期油價(jià)展望

渣打銀行的大宗商品專家發(fā)布了最新的大宗商品數(shù)據(jù)，他們預(yù)計(jì)中期需求增長和非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)增長都將放緩。

渣打銀行預(yù)計(jì)，根據(jù)已宣布和可能的政府政策，2026年的平均需求為1.065億桶/天，這將使需求遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于國際能源署(IEA)的凈零排放路徑，到2030年需求降至7840萬桶/天。

此外，分析師表示，從2023年到2026年，所有520萬桶/天的新增需求可能來自非經(jīng)合組織國家，經(jīng)合組織預(yù)測2026年的平均需求為4580萬桶/天，比2019年減少190萬桶/天，比2005年的峰值低430萬桶/天。

分析師表示，與 2024 年及以后相比，2022 年和 2023 年對歐佩克來說可能更具挑戰(zhàn)。在2022年和2023年期間，對歐佩克的需求增加為140萬桶/天。對看漲石油的人來說，幸運(yùn)的是，在2023年之后，前景變得更加嚴(yán)峻，從2023年到2026年，對歐佩克的需求增加320萬桶/天。

渣打銀行將2022年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測上調(diào)8美元/桶至75美元/桶，將2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)測上調(diào)17美元/桶至77美元/桶。

裘寅 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Calls 10-Year Commodity Supercycle

While the markets digest the inflation numbers on Wednesday, all eyes will be focussed on the Federal Reserve's reaction to the inflation data. Many economists expected the 7% gain in the Consumer Price Index, marking a 39-year high. Many markets, including stocks and bitcoin, have come under pressure this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates sooner and more frequently than earlier anticipated.

Experts consider rising inflation one of the biggest market risks this year because runaway inflation could corrode asset values, limit buying power and eat away at corporate margins. In a research note, Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius has warned that rapid progress in the U.S. labor market and hawkish signals in minutes from the Dec. 14-15 Federal Open Market Committee suggest faster normalization, with the central bank now likely to raise interest rates four times this year and start its balance sheet runoff process in July, if not earlier.

But the commodities sector is a different beast altogether.

Commodities outperformed other asset classes in 2021 and are widely expected to remain competitive in 2022.

Indeed, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie has reiterated his earlier call saying we are merely at the first innings of a decade-long commodity supercycle.

Speaking at CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down the latest moves in oil prices, Currie says the fundamental setup in the commodities complex, including oil and metals, remains incredibly bullish.

According to the analyst, the oil markets are currently in a big deficit of 2% of global demand, with inventories about 5% below their 5-year moving average. He goes on to say the financial set up offers even more support since fossil fuels remain out of favor with the investing universe while ESG headwinds pose a major challenge for a sector that badly needs new investments if production is to keep up with demand.

It's a point that has been reiterated by UBS analysts, "relative to oil prices, the sector looks cheap. Free cash flow yields are very attractive, capital discipline has improved, and the sector should benefit as demand recovers."

Copper is the new oil

Currie also says that there has been a complete redirection of capital over the past few years due in large part to poor returns in the oil and gas sector, with flows moving away from old-world economy investing style in things like oil, coal, mining, and towards renewables and ESG-- and now there is a demand imbalance is being exposed.

The GS commodities expert adds that stretched equity valuations and low Treasury yields make commodities even more attractive for investors wary of the high risks in these markets but still hunting for decent returns. In other words, commodities not only offer good prospects on a pure return basis but can also be a good hedge against growing market volatility.

Goldman Sachs continues its bullish tone on crude prices, and has hiked its Brent crude price forecast to $90/bbl from an earlier $80/bbl.

But it's Currie's remarks about the metals sector that will probably catch the attention of ESG and clean energy investors more. According to the analyst, the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing commodity supercycle are metals, which he has compared to oil in the 2000s thanks mainly to green capex. Currie says the ESG and clean energy transition is massive, with nearly all of the world's nations pursuing clean energy goals at the same time, making copper one of the most important commodities of this cycle.

Indeed, Currie has declared copper as the new oil, noting it's absolutely indispensable in global decarbonization strategies with copper shortages already being felt.

Other notable clean energy experts share Currie's views.

New energy research outfit Bloomberg New Energy Finance says the energy transition is responsible for driving the next commodity supercycle, with immense prospects for technology manufacturers, energy traders, and investors. Indeed, BNEF estimates that the global transition will require ~$173 trillion in energy supply and infrastructure investment over the next three decades, with renewable energy expected to provide 85% of our energy needs by 2050.

Clean energy technologies require more metals than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. 

According to a recent Eurasia Review analysis, prices for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium could reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, with the total value of production rising more than four-fold for the period 2021-2040, and even rivaling the total value of crude oil production.

In the net-zero emissions scenario, the metals demand boom could lead to a more than fourfold increase in the value of metals production–totaling $13 trillion accumulated over the next two decades for the four metals alone. This could rival the estimated value of oil production in a net-zero emissions scenario over that same period, making the four metals macro-relevant for inflation, trade, and output, and providing significant windfalls to commodity producers.   

Long-Term Oil Price Outlook

Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have released their latest commodities update wherein they expect a medium-term deceleration in both demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth. 

Stanchart has projected demand to average 106.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, based on announced and likely government policies, which would leave demand well above the International Energy Agency (IEA) net-zero emission path, in which demand falls to 78.4mb/d by 2030.

Further, the analysts say all the incremental 5.2mb/d of demand from 2023 to 2026 is likely to come from non-OECD countries, with OECD demand forecast to average 45.8mb/d in 2026, 1.9mb/d less than in 2019 and 4.3mb/d below its 2005 peak.

The analysts say 2022 and 2023 are likely to be more of a challenge for OPEC than 2024 and beyond. The increase in the call on OPEC across 2022 and 2023 is put at 1.4mb/d. Luckily for the oil bulls, the outlook becomes tighter after 2023, with the call on OPEC increasing by 3.2mb/d from 2023 to 2026.

Stanchart has raised its 2022 Brent forecast USD 8/bbl to USD 75/bbl and its 2023 Brent forecast USD 17/bbl to USD 77/bbl.

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