據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，挪威船級社（DNV）表示，能源專業(yè)人士透露，能源行業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認(rèn)為，能源轉(zhuǎn)型的速度比以往任何時(shí)候都要快，今年將是能源行業(yè)增長強(qiáng)勁的一年。

根據(jù)DNV發(fā)布的一份行業(yè)洞察報(bào)告，來自電力、可再生能源和油氣行業(yè)的資深業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為，這一轉(zhuǎn)型帶來的巨大商業(yè)機(jī)遇超過了其業(yè)務(wù)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。  

電力公司和可再生能源公司對行業(yè)增長的信心最高，盡管石油和天然氣公司的信心較低，但油氣行業(yè)已經(jīng)從去年的信心崩潰中反彈。  

基本技能短缺是能源行業(yè)增長的最大障礙，其次是缺乏政策支持。 可再生能源參與者表示，許可證和許可證出售招標(biāo)問題是能源行業(yè)增長的最大障礙，電力和可再生能源行業(yè)都指出，供應(yīng)鏈壓力是一個(gè)重大障礙。 近三分之二的能源行業(yè)人士認(rèn)為，供應(yīng)鏈問題正在減緩能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

DNV能源系統(tǒng)首席執(zhí)行官迪特列·恩格爾說，“我們看到了一個(gè)樂觀的能源行業(yè)：對增長充滿信心，增加投資，并在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中做出關(guān)鍵的戰(zhàn)略決策。 但我們也看到了從技術(shù)短缺到政策、融資、供應(yīng)鏈和許可證等諸多障礙的重大擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)槟茉聪到y(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)型的艱巨任務(wù)正在加快步伐。”

保持可靠的能源供應(yīng)也是一個(gè)問題，許多油氣行業(yè)人士認(rèn)為，勘探和上游擴(kuò)張方面的投資不足，無法滿足未來的需求。 約38%的油氣行業(yè)受訪者表示，他們的機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)現(xiàn)越來越難以為項(xiàng)目獲得合理定價(jià)的融資。

恩格爾說，“世界還沒有走上實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》目標(biāo)的軌道。 我們能夠而且必須做得更多，以更快地過渡到深度脫碳的能源系統(tǒng)。 我們看到，在選擇轉(zhuǎn)型的時(shí)機(jī)、將化石燃料的減少與清潔能源的增加相匹配方面，情況很復(fù)雜。這不僅體現(xiàn)在原始能源總量上，而且體現(xiàn)在能源的可承受性和可靠性上。 解決辦法就是以更快的速度擴(kuò)大清潔能源的使用。”

恩格爾補(bǔ)充說，“在當(dāng)今的能源行業(yè)中，樂觀是一種非常必要和強(qiáng)大的力量。 樂觀的力量是人類最偉大成就背后的力量，從醫(yī)藥到登月，實(shí)現(xiàn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型，將全球變暖限制在1.5°C當(dāng)然屬于這一類。”

預(yù)計(jì)大型資本密集型項(xiàng)目將在未來一年獲得批準(zhǔn)，而幾乎一半的行業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)他們的機(jī)構(gòu)將增加資本支出。  

綠色氫能源是大多數(shù)能源公司在今年增加投資的具體技術(shù)，其次是太陽能、海上浮式風(fēng)能和碳捕獲和儲存。

很多行業(yè)都在增加對脫碳的投資，但只有42%的人對公司實(shí)現(xiàn)脫碳目標(biāo)持樂觀態(tài)度，28%的人完全持悲觀態(tài)度。 

許多業(yè)內(nèi)人士認(rèn)為，COP26會議取得的成果還不夠，政策上的失敗阻礙了在氣候變化問題上采取更大的行動。 不到一半的人表示，在其業(yè)務(wù)所在的國家或地區(qū)實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零目標(biāo)是現(xiàn)實(shí)的，而且是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。 碳行業(yè)認(rèn)為，就全球碳市場規(guī)則達(dá)成一致，是COP26會議最受歡迎和鼓舞的成果。

恩格爾說，“目前，我們看到行業(yè)的短期樂觀和世界在脫碳方面的長期進(jìn)展之間不匹配。 當(dāng)務(wù)之急是減少溫室氣體排放。 正如我們在《能源轉(zhuǎn)型展望》報(bào)告中所闡明的，以及我們從行業(yè)角度所看到的那樣：技術(shù)和資本已經(jīng)為更快的轉(zhuǎn)型做好了準(zhǔn)備。 是政策和缺乏可執(zhí)行的監(jiān)管計(jì)劃阻礙了清潔能源的未來。”

能源行業(yè)越來越關(guān)注數(shù)字化，電力和可再生能源行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認(rèn)為，如果沒有數(shù)字化系統(tǒng)，分散的能源系統(tǒng)是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零目標(biāo)的。  

未來一年，能源公司將擴(kuò)大合作的規(guī)模和范圍，與新的利益相關(guān)者合作，以適應(yīng)能源轉(zhuǎn)型。  

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Energy Transition Accelerating Faster Than Ever, Industry Says

Energy professionals revealed that energy industry leaders believe the energy transition is accelerating faster than ever, and that 2022 is set to be a strong year for industry growth, classification society DNV said.

Senior industry players from across power, renewables, and oil and gas believe the huge commercial opportunities presented by the transition outweigh the risks to their businesses, according to an industry insight published by DNV.

Confidence for growth is highest among power and renewables companies, and while it is lower in oil and gas, the sector has bounced back from a crash in confidence going into 2021.

Skills shortages are the greatest barrier to growth for the energy industry, followed by a lack of policy support. Renewables players say permitting and licensing issues are the greatest barrier to growth, and the power and renewables sectors both point to supply chain pressures as a significant barrier. Almost two thirds of the energy industry believe that supply chain issues are slowing down the energy transition.

“We see an optimistic energy industry: confident about growth, boosting investment, and making critical strategic decisions in the energy transition. But we also see significant concerns about barriers to progress – from a skills shortage to policies, financing, supply chains, and permitting – as the enormous task of transforming the energy system gathers pace,” said Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV.

Maintaining reliable energy supply is also a concern, with many in the oil and gas industry convinced that not enough is being invested in exploration and upstream expansion to meet future demand. Some 38 percent of oil and gas respondents say that their organization is finding it increasingly difficult to secure reasonably priced finance for projects.

“The world is not on track to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. We can and must do much more to transition faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system. We see complexities in timing the transition, and in matching the scaling down of fossil fuels with the scaling up of clean energy – in terms of raw total energy, but also in its affordability and reliability. The solution is to scale up clean energy much, much faster.

“Optimism is a much-needed and powerful force in the energy industry today. The power of optimism is behind most of humanity’s greatest accomplishments, from medicines to moon-landings, and achieving an energy transition that limits global warming to 1.5°C certainly fits into that category,” Engel added.

Expectations are on the rise for large, capital-intensive projects to be approved in the year ahead, while almost half of the industry expects their organization to increase capital expenditure.

Green hydrogen is the specific technology that the greatest number of energy companies are targeting for increased investment in 2022, followed by solar, floating offshore wind, and carbon capture and storage.

Much of the industry is increasing investment in decarbonization, but it is telling that only 42 percent are optimistic about their company reaching its decarbonization targets, and 28 percent are outright pessimistic.

Many in the industry believe COP26 did not achieve enough, and that policy failures are holding back greater action on climate change. Less than half say net-zero targets in the country or territory where their business is based are realistic and achievable. The industry finds agreement on rules for a global carbon market the most welcome and encouraging outcome of COP26.

“For now, we see a mismatch between the industry’s shorter-term optimism and the world’s longer-term progress on decarbonization. The priority needs to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As we make clear in our Energy Transition Outlook, and as we see in the view from the industry: technology and capital are ready for a faster transition. It is policy and a lack of actionable regulatory plans that are holding back a clean energy future,” Engel said.

Much of the energy industry is increasingly focusing on digitalization, with power and renewables leaders concluding that a decentralized energy system is impossible without digital systems.

Energy companies will increase the scale and spread of their collaboration in the year ahead, working with new stakeholders as they adapt to the energy transition.