據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)3月10日報(bào)道，美國能源情報(bào)署(EIA)預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，美國天然氣產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)增加。模型化的天然氣產(chǎn)量增長很大程度上源于對美國天然氣出口需求的上升，尤其是液化天然氣(LNG)的需求。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，天然氣出口將在21世紀(jì)30年代初繼續(xù)上升，之后才會(huì)持平。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，美國天然氣年產(chǎn)量將增長近25%。這種增長主要來自阿巴拉契亞盆地(東部地區(qū))和密西西比-路易斯安那鹽盆地(墨西哥灣地區(qū))。然而，這一增長的一半以上來自石油地層的天然氣生產(chǎn)，即伴生氣。

伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量增長最顯著的是美國西南部二疊紀(jì)盆地的Wolfcamp地層。Wolfcamp和Haynesville地層靠近德克薩斯州和路易斯安那州美國海灣沿岸的液化天然氣出口終端，促進(jìn)了這些地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量增長。

阿巴拉契亞盆地的天然氣也進(jìn)入出口市場； 然而，EIA預(yù)計(jì)該地區(qū)的大部分新產(chǎn)品將流向國內(nèi)市場，由于從阿巴拉契亞到出口終端的通道受到管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制。因此，該地區(qū)相對較低的生產(chǎn)成本是推動(dòng)阿巴拉契亞地區(qū)天然氣產(chǎn)量增長的主要因素。

2021年，美國天然氣出口連續(xù)第七年創(chuàng)下新高，預(yù)計(jì)還將進(jìn)一步增長。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，2033年之后，天然氣出口將在預(yù)測期內(nèi)保持相對平穩(wěn)。大部分天然氣出口增長來自LNG，但通過管道向墨西哥和加拿大出口的天然氣也有所增加。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，到2025年天然氣出口的持續(xù)增長將受到目前在建設(shè)施的液化天然氣產(chǎn)能增加的推動(dòng)。路易斯安那州薩賓帕斯和卡爾克蘇帕斯以及得克薩斯州金帕斯的其他液化天然氣生產(chǎn)線現(xiàn)在預(yù)計(jì)將比預(yù)期更早投入使用，從而增加可用于將天然氣轉(zhuǎn)化為供出口的液化天然氣的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施數(shù)量。最近完成的額外天然氣管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也增加了進(jìn)入墨西哥的量。

2025年后，EIA 預(yù)計(jì)美國天然氣產(chǎn)量將增加，以滿足不斷增長的液化天然氣出口需求。EIA預(yù)計(jì)全球?qū)μ烊粴獾男枨髮⒗^續(xù)保持高位，這使得在美國建造更多的液化天然氣出口設(shè)施更加經(jīng)濟(jì)。這些液化天然氣產(chǎn)能的擴(kuò)大，加上國外對天然氣需求的增加，將導(dǎo)致到2033年，液化天然氣出口預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5.86萬億立方英尺，比目前水平高出65%。

郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to rise as demand for exports grow

The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production will continue to increase through 2050. Much of the modeled growth in natural gas production results from rising demand for U.S. natural gas exports, especially for LNG. The EIA projects that natural gas exports will continue to rise through the early 2030s before leveling off. 

The EIA projects that annual U.S. natural gas production will grow by almost 25% through 2050. Much of this growth comes from the Appalachia Basin (East region) and the Mississippi-Louisiana salt basins (Gulf Coast region). However, more than half of this growth comes from natural gas production in oil formations, known as associated gas. 

The most significant increase in production of associated natural gas is in the Wolfcamp formation of the Permian Basin in the U.S. Southwest. The Wolfcamp and Haynesville formations’ proximity to LNG export terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana has facilitated production growth in these regions. 

Natural gas from the Appalachia Basin also reaches export markets; however, the EIA projects that the majority of new production from this region will be directed toward domestic markets because access from Appalachia to export terminals is constrained by pipeline infrastructure. As a result, the region’s relatively low production costs are predominately driving the growth in Appalachia’s natural gas production.

In 2021, U.S. natural gas exports set a record high for the seventh consecutive year and are projected to increase further. After 2033, the EIA projects natural gas exports will stay relatively flat for the remainder of the projection period. Most natural gas export growth comes from LNG, but exports of natural gas by pipelines to Mexico and Canada also increase. 

The EIA projects that continued growth in natural gas exports through 2025 will be driven by increases in LNG capacity at facilities that are currently under construction. Additional LNG trains at Sabine Pass and Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana and at Golden Pass in Texas are now expected to enter service much earlier than anticipated, increasing the amount of infrastructure available for converting natural gas to LNG for export. Recent completions of additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure have also increased capacity into Mexico. 

After 2025, the EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production will increase to meet growing LNG export demand. The EIA projects global demand for natural gas will continue to be high, making it more economical to build additional LNG export facilities in the U.S. These LNG capacity expansions, coupled with increasing demand for natural gas abroad, result in an increased forecast of LNG exports to 5.86 Tft3 by 2033, up 65% from current levels.