美國(guó)的鉆井活動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)正在趨于平穩(wěn)

在更強(qiáng)的需求下，海上鉆井平臺(tái)的日租金正在飆升

作為歐洲能源危機(jī)的直接結(jié)果，市場(chǎng)對(duì)FSRU的需求在2022年也已經(jīng)起飛

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，今年，即使在美國(guó)石油鉆機(jī)增長(zhǎng)趨于平穩(wěn)的情況下，海外鉆井對(duì)海上鉆機(jī)的需求也在飆升。根據(jù)貝克休斯公司的數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在有622個(gè)石油鉆機(jī)在美國(guó)運(yùn)行，低于2020年3月疫情開(kāi)始時(shí)的683個(gè)，與6周前相比沒(méi)有變化。這導(dǎo)致鉆井日租金飆升，鉆井承包商的股票飆升，如Transocean Ltd.的股價(jià)今年以來(lái)上漲了49.7%；又如Valaris Ltd.的股價(jià)已經(jīng)飆升了75.1%，而Noble Corp. Plc股價(jià)上漲了45.1%。與此形成鮮明對(duì)比的是，市場(chǎng)對(duì)海上鉆井平臺(tái)的需求十分火爆，日租金最近突破40萬(wàn)美元，高于6月份的30萬(wàn)美元和兩年前的不到20萬(wàn)美元。

Evercore的高級(jí)董事總經(jīng)理James West概述了這些發(fā)展的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因。

美國(guó)石油巨頭埃克森美孚、雪佛龍和康菲石油已經(jīng)在該國(guó)獲得了他們所需的鉆機(jī)，而他們的私人競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手由于預(yù)算限制和油價(jià)下跌，對(duì)市場(chǎng)擴(kuò)張沒(méi)有表現(xiàn)出興趣。這些石油巨頭也在將更多的鉆井轉(zhuǎn)移到海上和海外，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的頁(yè)巖油機(jī)會(huì)現(xiàn)在很有限，所有的優(yōu)質(zhì)油田都已經(jīng)被占用。國(guó)家石油公司（NOCs），包括沙特阿拉伯、阿布扎比和科威特的國(guó)家石油公司，目前正在擴(kuò)大海上生產(chǎn)，因?yàn)樗麄兿Ｍ麖氖途揞^手中奪回市場(chǎng)份額，而歐美石油巨頭最近更注重以股息和股票回購(gòu)的形式向股東返還多余的現(xiàn)金，而不是擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)。

能源危機(jī)引發(fā)了對(duì)浮式液化天然氣終端的瘋狂追逐

在天然氣領(lǐng)域，今年對(duì)液化天然氣浮式儲(chǔ)存和再氣化裝置（LNG-FSRU）的需求急劇增加，由于供應(yīng)商逐步削減管道天然氣流量，歐洲面臨能源供應(yīng)緊張的局面。

目前對(duì)液化天然氣進(jìn)口的需求加劇，因?yàn)橹匦麻_(kāi)啟其天然氣龍頭的前景已經(jīng)破滅。這迫使歐洲幾十個(gè)國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)向FSRU或浮式液化天然氣終端，這基本上是移動(dòng)終端，卸下超冷燃料并將其輸送到陸上網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

目前，全球有48艘FSRU在運(yùn)行，能源咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)雷斯塔能源透露，除了6艘之外，其他都被鎖定為定期租約。

根據(jù)能源智囊團(tuán)Ember的說(shuō)法，歐盟已經(jīng)為多達(dá)19個(gè)新的FSRU項(xiàng)目排定了計(jì)劃，估計(jì)成本為95億歐元。

最大的受益者是韓國(guó)造船業(yè)，F(xiàn)SRU是他們的主要收入來(lái)源。韓國(guó)在這一領(lǐng)域是絕對(duì)的世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。據(jù)當(dāng)?shù)孛襟w報(bào)道，到目前為止，韓國(guó)造船廠的訂單量同比增長(zhǎng)了46%。政府的目標(biāo)是，到2030年，韓國(guó)將占據(jù)75%的市場(chǎng)份額。

這樣的安排再好不過(guò)了。由于這些船只的供應(yīng)如此緊張，租借到德國(guó)的費(fèi)用同比增加了一倍，達(dá)到每天20萬(wàn)美元。

“去年FSRU過(guò)剩，今年則出現(xiàn)了赤字。到目前為止，市場(chǎng)上有足夠的船舶，但由于現(xiàn)在大多數(shù)船舶都已被占用，因此變得更具挑戰(zhàn)性。”奧斯陸的船舶經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Fearnley LNG的全球負(fù)責(zé)人Per Christian Fett告訴彭博社。

總部位于得克薩斯州的Excelerate Energy Inc.正在向歐洲發(fā)送三艘FSRU，其總吞吐能力可進(jìn)口150億立方米天然氣，約占2021年進(jìn)口管道氣和LNG的10%。歐洲對(duì)這些碼頭的需求非常強(qiáng)烈，這可能會(huì)使新興國(guó)家使用FSRU滿足自身需求的成本降低。雷斯塔能源的高級(jí)分析師Kaushal Ramesh說(shuō)：“在現(xiàn)有租約條款允許的情況下，世界其他地區(qū)未被充分利用的設(shè)施可能被轉(zhuǎn)移到歐洲，這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是真實(shí)的。”

荷蘭在一個(gè)新的碼頭上首次交付了液化天然氣，推動(dòng)了歐洲擺脫產(chǎn)能大國(guó)天然氣的努力。此前，荷蘭只能通過(guò)鹿特丹進(jìn)口液化天然氣；然而，隨著停泊在埃姆沙文的兩艘FSRU——Golar Igloo和Eemshaven LNG的投產(chǎn)，這種情況已經(jīng)改變。FSRU項(xiàng)目在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的時(shí)間內(nèi)完成。

荷蘭氣候和能源部長(zhǎng)Rob Jetten宣稱：“新的液化天然氣終端的到來(lái)，不僅對(duì)荷蘭，而且對(duì)整個(gè)歐洲來(lái)說(shuō)都是重要的一步，以盡快完全淘汰對(duì)產(chǎn)能大國(guó)能源的依賴。FRSU為歐洲提供了最快速和最有效的方式，以結(jié)束對(duì)從產(chǎn)能大國(guó)引入大量管道天然氣的依賴。”

曹海斌 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

The Offshore Drilling Market Is Booming Again

U.S. drilling activity growth is plateauing.

Day rates for offshore drilling rigs are soaring amid stronger demand.

Demand for FSRU’s has also taken off in 2022 as a direct result of the energy crisis in Europe.

Demand for offshore rigs for overseas drilling has soared this year even as U.S. oil-rig growth has plateaued. According to Baker Hughes, there are now 622 oil rigs operating in the U.S., down from the 683 in operation in March of 2020 at the onset of the pandemic and unchanged from six weeks ago. This has caused day rates to skyrocket and the stocks of drilling contractors to soar with Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) up 49.7% in the year-to-date; Valaris Ltd. (NYSE: VAL) has rocketed 75.1% while Noble Corp. Plc (NYSE: NE) has gained 45.1%. In sharp contrast, demand for offshore rigs is sizzling, with S&P Global reporting that day rates recently topped $400,000, up from $300,000 in June and less than $200,000 two years ago. 

James West, senior managing director at Evercore, has outlined three key reasons for these developments:

U.S. oil majors Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) have already secured the rigs they need in the country while their private rivals are showing little appetite for expansion due to budget constraints and lower oil prices.

These oil majors are also moving more of their drilling offshore and overseas because U.S. shale opportunities are now limited with all prime acreage already taken up.

National oil companies (NOCs) including those in Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait are currently expanding offshore production as they look to claw back market share from the majors who have lately been more focused on returning excess cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks rather than expanding production.

Energy Crisis Sparks Mad Dash For Floating LNG Terminals

In the natural gas sector, demand for LNG floating storage and regasification units (LNG-FSRUs) has increased sharply this year, with Europe facing an energy supply squeeze as the provider has progressively cut pipeline gas flows. 

Demand for LNG imports has intensified after the ruptures on the key Nord Stream pipeline system quashed any prospect of the bigger producer turning its gas taps back on. This has forced dozens of countries in Europe to turn to FSRUs or floating LNG terminals, which are essentially mobile terminals that unload the super-chilled fuel and pipe it into onshore networks.

Currently, there are 48 FSRUs in operation globally, with Rystad Energy revealing that all but six of them are locked into term charters. 

According to energy think-tank Ember, the EU has lined up plans for as many as 19 new FSRU projects at an estimated cost of €9.5bn. 

The biggest beneficiaries are Korean shipbuilding, for whom FSRUs are a major revenue-generator. Korea is the definitive world leader in this field. According to local media, Korean shipbuilders managed to book 46% more orders so far, YoY. And the government’s goal is for the country to grab 75% of the market share by 2030. 

The setup couldn’t be better. With the supply of these vessels so tight, the cost of charters into Germany has doubled year-on-year to $200,000 a day. 

“Last year there was a surplus of FSRUs and this year there is a deficit. Up until now there have been sufficient vessels in the market, but as most have now been taken, it’s becoming more challenging,” Per Christian Fett, the global head of LNG at shipbrokers Fearnley LNG in Oslo, has told Bloomberg.

Texas-based Excelerate Energy Inc. is sending three FSRUs to Europe with combined throughput capacity to import 15 billion cubic meters of gas, or about 10% of the pipeline and LNG imports from the bigger producer in 2021. Demand for the terminals in Europe is so strong that it could make it less affordable for emerging nations to use FSRUs for their own needs. “The risk is real that underutilized facilities in other regions of the world could be relocated to Europe, existing charter terms permitting,” Kaushal Ramesh, a senior analyst at consultant Rystad Energy, has said.

The Netherlands has taken its first delivery of LNG at a new terminal, boosting Europe’s efforts to wean itself off Russian gas. Previously, the Netherlands could only import LNG through Rotterdam; however, that has changed with the commissioning of two FSRUs, the Golar Igloo and Eemshaven LNG, moored in Eemshaven. The FSRU project was completed in record time Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. With the pair of floating ships now supplying gas to the landlocked Czech Republic and Germany.

“The arrival of the new LNG terminal is an important step not only for the Netherlands, but for the whole of Europe to completely phase out the dependence on energy from the bigger producer as quickly as possible,” Rob Jetten, Dutch minister for climate and energy, has declared. FRSUs offer the quickest and most efficient way for Europe to end its reliance on the pipelines that bring in large quantities of natural gas from the bigger producer .