據(jù)鉆機地帶1月13日消息稱，上游石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)在2022年恢復(fù)了活力。創(chuàng)紀錄的現(xiàn)金流恢復(fù)了信心，修復(fù)了資產(chǎn)負債表。對許多人來說，新的一年令人興奮。

伍德麥肯茲表示，提供安全和負擔得起的能源是一種新的目標，尤其是在供不應(yīng)求的歐洲天然氣市場。

該分析公司補充說，好光景也加劇了一些挑戰(zhàn)。2023年，人們將對該行業(yè)的未來提出嚴肅的問題。在各個層面上，上游行業(yè)都需要捕捉和擴大能源敘事。社會發(fā)展有賴于能源生產(chǎn)擴大。

伍德麥肯茲的全球?qū)＜覉F隊齊聚一堂，分享了其對未來一年該行業(yè)的年度綜述預(yù)測——以及需要注意的地方。此外，該公司還研究了全球上游趨勢在某些地區(qū)可能如何發(fā)揮作用。

亞太地區(qū)

在亞太地區(qū)，2023年的所有目光都將集中在政策制定者身上，政策監(jiān)管發(fā)展將成為今年的主要主題。

去年是勘探活動平靜的一年，我們重點介紹了勘探公司正在深入的兩個關(guān)鍵盆地，以及預(yù)計會出現(xiàn)驚喜的大型勘探開發(fā)許可。根據(jù)伍德麥肯茲的說法，與安靜的2022年相比，2023年對于項目FID來說也將是更大的一年。

加拿大地區(qū)

加拿大地區(qū)以外的全球性事件占據(jù)了2022年的頭條。但在該國的上游部門仍有大量勘探開采活動，涵蓋了從優(yōu)勢、短周期非常規(guī)油氣藏到深水和重油的所有資源主題。

加拿大非常規(guī)天然氣的產(chǎn)量將會增長，但很少會超過個位數(shù)，同時運營商將慎重增產(chǎn)不逾越聯(lián)邦低碳政策。

里海地區(qū)

哈薩克斯坦石油和阿塞拜疆天然氣的出口路線將被仔細審查，大型項目的啟動將支持近期的產(chǎn)量增長，哈薩克斯坦是否會面臨迫在眉睫的天然氣短缺，目前尚不清楚。

從中亞到阿塞拜疆，進入2023年的里海內(nèi)陸地區(qū)，風(fēng)險管理成為議程的首要任務(wù)。地緣政治沖突態(tài)勢發(fā)展以及由此產(chǎn)生的“新地緣政治常態(tài)”的影響將持續(xù)下去。

但是，與以往一樣，里海上游行業(yè)不僅面臨挑戰(zhàn)。它仍然是整個能源價值鏈上大規(guī)模機會的發(fā)源地，其中一些機會將在未來一年取得進展。

歐洲大陸

從荷蘭到黑海，2023年的歐洲大陸，對能源安全和可負擔性的擔憂顯得日益突出。自地緣政治態(tài)勢沖擊市場之后，迫使更多的政府多少有些勉強地接受了國內(nèi)供應(yīng)的重要性。

歐洲大陸的上游部門在規(guī)模、成熟度和社會政治背景方面是多樣化的。未來12個月的活動將再次反映這一點，包括該地區(qū)與地理邊界有關(guān)的重大開發(fā)活動和高影響力井的勘探。

拉丁美洲

在拉丁美洲，變化是常態(tài)，2022年也不例外。雖然一些國家正在達到新的里程碑，但其他國家正在努力補充儲備。政治格局發(fā)生了巨大變化。巴西和哥倫比亞這兩個主要產(chǎn)油國選出了新的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。權(quán)力更迭的影響是2023年的未知因素。從積極的方面來看，拉丁美洲的產(chǎn)量在2022年有所增長，打破了7年來的下降趨勢。

中東和北非地區(qū)

受高油價和國家石油公司現(xiàn)金流增加的影響，該地區(qū)投資將在2023年增加。支出將嚴重向天然氣和液化天然氣開發(fā)傾斜。隨著政府開始日益重視天然氣價格高企的市場情況以及歐洲打算擺脫對產(chǎn)能大國的長期能源依賴，天然氣也將在整個地區(qū)的勘探中得到重視。減碳和可持續(xù)性將是主要的主題。因為各國政府將利用油氣較高價格的時機和歐洲擺脫對產(chǎn)能大國依賴。碳減排和可持續(xù)發(fā)展將是主要主題。

北海地區(qū)

到2023年，北海地區(qū)的油氣開發(fā)將繼續(xù)大量產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流。這一次，創(chuàng)造新紀錄的將是政府，而不是企業(yè)。在多達14家初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的推動下，生產(chǎn)將保持穩(wěn)定，包括殼牌在英國的Penguins再開發(fā)項目。

在2022年挪威創(chuàng)紀錄數(shù)量的FID幫助下，投資將逐漸增加。英國可能會批準20年來的最高支出，但存在很多不確定性。

撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)

撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)的開發(fā)肯定會回到日程表。納米比亞橙色盆地的巨大發(fā)現(xiàn)使其成為世界上最熱的新勘探盆地，歐洲正在覬覦該地區(qū)巨大的未開發(fā)天然氣資源，以幫助解決其能源危機。

上游投資正在回歸，預(yù)計該地區(qū)將有幾項FID將會實現(xiàn)。盡管2023年將有幾個新項目投產(chǎn)——這是10年來最多的項目——但情況并不樂觀。在已經(jīng)承諾的大型項目中，數(shù)百億美元的資本支出面臨風(fēng)險。

美國墨西哥灣地區(qū)

創(chuàng)紀錄的近400億美元現(xiàn)金流、恢復(fù)Lease Sale 257區(qū)塊的開發(fā)、并購活動增加以及生產(chǎn)和投資的增加，為2022年美國墨西哥灣上游部門帶來了興奮。

最有可能的是，2023年將為該地區(qū)帶來又一年的生產(chǎn)和投資增長，這是由不斷涌現(xiàn)的初創(chuàng)公司支撐的。但通貨膨脹將繼續(xù)，一些運營商將面臨風(fēng)險。

美國的48個州

盡管2022年宏觀環(huán)境混亂，但穩(wěn)定是美國油氣勘探開發(fā)領(lǐng)域的口號。“控制你能把握的，盡可能消除業(yè)務(wù)波動”。因此，保持再投資穩(wěn)定，雖然產(chǎn)量增長有限和交易并購活動。

曹海斌 摘譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Upstream Oil And Gas 2023 Predictions Region-By-Region

Upstream oil and gas got its mojo back in 2022. Record cash flows restored confidence and repaired balance sheets. For many, there is excitement about the year ahead.

Wood Mackenzie said that there was a renewed sense of purpose to provide secure and affordable energy – particularly into tight European gas markets.

The analyst company added that the good times also exacerbated some of the challenges. In 2023 serious questions will be asked about the sector’s future. At all levels, the upstream industry needs to capture and broaden the energy narrative. Its social license depends on it.

Woodmac’s team of global experts came together to share its annual round-up predictions for the industry in the year ahead – and the wildcards to look out for. Also, the company looks at how global upstream trends might play out in certain regions.

Asia Pacific

In Asia Pacific, all eyes will be on the policymakers in 2023, with regulatory developments featuring heavily across the key themes for the year.

In a quiet year for E&A activity, we highlight the two key basins where explorers are going deeper and the big licensing rounds where the company expects some surprises. According to Woodmac, 2023 will also be a much bigger year for project FIDs, compared to a quiet 202

Canada

Macro events outside of Canada dominated the headlines in 2022. But plenty still occurred within the country's upstream sector, which spans all resource themes from advantaged, short-cycle unconventional plays to deepwater to heavy oil.

The unconventional output will grow, but rarely exceed single digits while operators will outpace federal methane policies.

Caspian

Export routes for Kazakh oil and Azerbaijani gas will be scrutinized, major project start-ups will support near-term volume growth – and it is unknown if Kazakhstan will confront its looming gas shortfall.

From Central Asia to Azerbaijan, the landlocked Caspian region enters 2023 with risk management at the top of the agenda. The repercussions of the war and the resulting ‘new geopolitical normal’ are here to stay.

But, as ever, the Caspian upstream sector is not only defined by its challenges. It remains home to large-scale opportunities across the energy value chain, some of which are primed for progress in the year ahead.

Continental Europe

From the Netherlands to the Black Sea, Continental Europe enters 2023 with concerns about energy security and affordability looming large. The geopolitical shocks since the war have forced more governments to accept, somewhat begrudgingly, the importance of their own domestic supply.

Continental Europe’s upstream sector is diverse: in scale, maturity, and socio-political context. Activity in the next 12 months will once again reflect this, including major developments and high-impact exploration at the region’s geographical frontiers.

Latin America

Change is a constant in Latin America and 2022 was no exception. While some countries are reaching new milestones, others are struggling to replenish reserves. The political landscape shifted in a big way. Two of the main oil-producing counties, Brazil and Colombia, voted in new leaders. Change of power is the unknown factor for 2023. On the positive side, Latin American production grew in 2022, breaking a seven-year trend of annual declines.

Middle East and North Africa

Buoyed by high prices and swelling NOC coffers, the investment will ramp up in 2023. Spending will be heavily skewed to gas and LNG developments. Gas will also be emphasized in exploration throughout the region as governments capitalize on high prices and the longer-term shift away from Europe’s dependency. Carbon reduction and sustainability will be dominant themes.

North Sea

The North Sea will continue to churn out cash in 2023. This time governments rather than companies will set new records. Production will be stable, driven by up to 14 start-ups, including Shell’s Penguins redevelopment in the UK.

The investment will creep up, helped by a record number of FIDs in Norway in 2022. The UK could sanction the highest level of spending in 20 years but there is lots of uncertainty. And the time ahead is probably a ‘now or never’ situation for Cambo and Rosebank.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is firmly back on the agenda. Giant discoveries in Namibia’s Orange Basin make it the world’s hottest new exploration basin and Europe is eyeing up the region’s vast undeveloped gas resources to help solve its energy crisis.

Upstream investment is returning, with several greenfield final investment decisions expected. Despite several new projects coming onstream in 2023 – the highest number this decade – all is not rosy. Tens of billions of dollars of capex are at risk at already committed major projects.

US Gulf of Mexico

Record cash flow of close to $40 billion, reinstating Lease Sale 257, an uptick in M&A activity, and increased production and investment brought excitement to the US Gulf of Mexico upstream sector in 2022.

Most probably, 2023 will bring another year of production and investment growth underpinned by delayed startups. But inflation will continue, and some operators will be exposed.

US Lower 48

Despite a chaotic macro environment in 2022, stability was the watchword for US E&Ps. Control what you can control. Remove business volatility wherever possible. As such, reinvestment remained steady, production growth was limited, and M&A activity included plenty of bolt-on deals.