由于致密油和頁(yè)巖氣地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量增加，美國(guó)今年的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到1240萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到歷史最高水平

盡管在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量減少，且此前開(kāi)鉆但未完鉆（DUC）井?dāng)?shù)量減少，但二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油日產(chǎn)量仍達(dá)到了580萬(wàn)桶的新高

由于美國(guó)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備降至1983年以來(lái)的最低水平，市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂加劇；今年下半年的油價(jià)在很大程度上取決于沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克的決定

  據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，我（本文作者）對(duì)2023年能源的預(yù)測(cè)之一是，美國(guó)今年將創(chuàng)下年度石油產(chǎn)量歷史新高。由于時(shí)間正接近今年年中，這一預(yù)測(cè)仍在朝著準(zhǔn)確的方向發(fā)展。

EIA最新的每周石油狀況報(bào)告顯示，目前美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量為1240萬(wàn)桶/天。這比一年前增加了40萬(wàn)桶/天，但仍低于2019年11月達(dá)到的1300萬(wàn)桶/天的水平。盡管如此，今年迄今美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量仍高于2019年歷史最高的1230萬(wàn)桶/天。

致密油和頁(yè)巖氣地區(qū)仍然是美國(guó)油氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的主要推動(dòng)力。二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到了580萬(wàn)桶的歷史最高水平，甚至超過(guò)了沙特阿拉伯探明石油儲(chǔ)量最大的蓋瓦爾油田。然而，近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)放緩，新井只是抵消了老井的產(chǎn)量下降。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司公布的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，自去年以來(lái)，美國(guó)的在用石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量下降了5%。然而，以前開(kāi)鉆但未完鉆(DUC)井的庫(kù)存量也在繼續(xù)下降。在過(guò)去的一年里，DUC井的庫(kù)存量下降了8%，但在過(guò)去的3年里，DUC井的庫(kù)存量下降了45%。從這個(gè)角度來(lái)看，美國(guó)DUC井庫(kù)存量目前處于大約十年來(lái)的最低水平。

這意味著產(chǎn)量的增加主要是由DUC井驅(qū)動(dòng)的。隨著DUC井庫(kù)存量的持續(xù)下降，產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加，但為了使石油產(chǎn)量從目前的水平大幅增加，在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量可能會(huì)很快增加。

戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備(SPR)仍然是一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的問(wèn)題，因?yàn)槟壳暗膸?kù)存處于1983年以來(lái)的最低水平。在過(guò)去一年里，為了應(yīng)對(duì)不斷上漲的油價(jià)，SPR的庫(kù)存水平已消耗31%。可以說(shuō)，這在一定程度上抑制了去年油價(jià)的上漲，但也讓美國(guó)在真正緊急的情況下失去了一個(gè)實(shí)質(zhì)性緩沖。

當(dāng)然，這種活動(dòng)在很大程度上是由價(jià)格驅(qū)動(dòng)的。石油價(jià)格從去年的120美元/桶下降到今天的不到70美元/桶。汽油零售均價(jià)也從一年前的每加侖5.11美元降至目前的每加侖3.71美元。汽油價(jià)格已經(jīng)回到了地緣政治沖突之前的水平。

今年下半年的情況將在很大程度上取決于沙特阿拉伯和歐佩克。他們已經(jīng)發(fā)出信號(hào)，他們覺(jué)得定價(jià)權(quán)已經(jīng)回到了對(duì)他們有利的方向。事實(shí)上，隨著SPR庫(kù)存量的減少，如果沙特阿拉伯繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)，美國(guó)就沒(méi)有太多可用的工具來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)飆升。

所有這些都表明，今年下半年油價(jià)可能會(huì)上漲。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

The Permian Basin Is Out-Producing Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field

? The U.S. is predicted to break a new record in oil production this year, with current production at 12.4 million barrels per day, primarily due to increased output in tight oil and shale gas regions.

? Despite a decline in the number of drilling rigs and a depletion of wells previously drilled but uncompleted, the Permian Basin has reached a new high of 5.8 million barrels per day.

? Concerns rise as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reaches its lowest level since 1983; oil prices in the second half of the year are largely dependent on decisions made by Saudi Arabia and OPEC.

One of my 2023 energy predictions was that the U.S. would set a new annual oil production record this year. As we approach the midpoint of the year, this prediction is still tracking toward being accurate.

The latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows current U.S. oil production to be 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s an increase of 400,000 bpd from a year ago, but still short of the 13.0 million bpd level reached in November 2019. Nevertheless, year-to-date oil production is running ahead of the record 12.3 million bpd level for all of 2019.

The tight oil and shale gas regions continue to be the primary driver of rising U.S. oil and gas production. The Permian Basin has reached an all-time high of 5.8 million bpd, out-producing even Saudi Arabia’s massive Ghawar oilfield. However, production gains in the Permian have slowed in recent months, with new wells just offsetting the production decline in legacy wells.

According to the Baker Hughes rig count, the number of wells drilling for oil in the U.S. has declined by 5% since last year. However, the inventory of wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC) also continues to decline. Over the past year, the DUC inventory has decreased by 8%, but it’s down a whopping 45% over the past three years. For perspective, the DUC inventory is now at its lowest level in about a decade.

This means that production increases are primarily being driven by finishing previously drilled wells. Production may be able to increase a bit more as the DUC inventory continues to decline, but the rig count will likely have to increase soon for oil production to increase much from current levels.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a concern, as the current inventory is at the lowest level since 1983. Over the past year, the level of the SPR has been depleted by 31% in an effort to combat rising oil prices. That arguably helped stem the rise in oil prices last year, but it removed a substantial cushion the U.S. had in case of a real emergency.

Of course, much of this activity is being driven by price. Oil prices have declined from $120 a barrel (bbl) at this time last year to just under $70/bbl today. In turn, average retail gasoline prices have declined from $5.11 a gallon a year ago to $3.71 a gallon at present. Gasoline prices have returned to about the level they were at prior to the war.

What happens in the second half of the year will largely depend upon Saudi Arabia and OPEC. They are already signaling that they feel like pricing power has shifted back in their favor. Indeed, with a reduced SPR inventory, the U.S. doesn’t have a lot of tools available for fighting an oil price surge if Saudi production cuts continue.

All of this suggests that oil prices will likely increase during the second half of the year.