據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社12月15日倫敦報(bào)道，由于變異毒株奧密克戎在全球迅速傳播，石油預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的全球石油需求看法不一。在最新一輪的預(yù)測(cè)中，石油生產(chǎn)商出人意料地成為了多頭。

國(guó)際能源署(IEA)、美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)和石油輸出國(guó)組織(歐佩克)都更新了他們對(duì)截至明年年底的石油市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。 每個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)都在設(shè)法應(yīng)對(duì)最新的冠狀病毒奧密克戎毒株的影響，這種毒株在11月底才被發(fā)現(xiàn)，已經(jīng)占英國(guó)確診病例的20%。 

一個(gè)明顯的變化是：上述3個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)2022年第一季度全球石油需求的預(yù)測(cè)各不相同。  

盡管確證病例數(shù)的上升和國(guó)際旅行限制已導(dǎo)致IEA和EIA下調(diào)了他們對(duì)到明年3月份的全球石油消費(fèi)量的估計(jì)，但歐佩克卻走了一條截然不同的道路。歐佩克對(duì)當(dāng)前季度的預(yù)測(cè)與一個(gè)月前發(fā)布的預(yù)測(cè)持平，而對(duì)2022年開始的預(yù)測(cè)被向上修正了110萬(wàn)桶/日。 

步調(diào)不一致  

歐佩克認(rèn)為，奧密克戎變異株對(duì)全球石油需求的影響“將是溫和和短暫的，因?yàn)槭澜鐚⒏玫貞?yīng)對(duì)疫情及其相關(guān)挑戰(zhàn)。”

歐佩克認(rèn)為，“盡管目前存在通貨膨脹和供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸，持續(xù)的貿(mào)易問(wèn)題以及它們對(duì)工業(yè)和運(yùn)輸燃料需求的影響，但發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景都很穩(wěn)定。” 

盡管歐佩克對(duì)明年第一季度全球石油需求水平的預(yù)測(cè)大幅上升，但這實(shí)際上是受歐佩克一年前(2021年前3個(gè)月)對(duì)需求水平評(píng)估的變化推動(dòng)的。  

亞洲驅(qū)動(dòng)需求

由于亞洲大國(guó)和除印度以外的其它非經(jīng)合組織亞洲國(guó)家的消費(fèi)預(yù)期上調(diào)，再加上穩(wěn)定的同比增長(zhǎng)水平，上述數(shù)據(jù)被向上修正，導(dǎo)致明年年初的需求出現(xiàn)躍升。 

歐佩克對(duì)2022年第一季度全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)為每天530萬(wàn)桶，現(xiàn)在非常接近EIA預(yù)測(cè)的534萬(wàn)桶。 雖然IEA將同期的全球每天石油需求預(yù)期下調(diào)了55萬(wàn)桶，但把今年第一季度的日均需求預(yù)期下調(diào)了70萬(wàn)桶，降幅更大。 因此，從明年1月份開始的3個(gè)月的需求同比增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)值實(shí)際上有所提高。

只有IEA下調(diào)了其對(duì)2022年第一季度全球石油需求水平和同比增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期。 由于航班時(shí)刻表修改以及預(yù)訂被取消，IEA把明年前三個(gè)月全球石油需求總量的預(yù)測(cè)每天削減63萬(wàn)桶，其中航空燃油/煤油日需求量減少近60萬(wàn)桶。

鑒于英國(guó)政府周二決定取消對(duì)來(lái)自非洲南部11個(gè)國(guó)家的旅行者的隔離要求，這種觀點(diǎn)可能開始顯得過(guò)于悲觀。英國(guó)政府現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為，這一舉措對(duì)阻止奧密克戎病毒變體的傳播無(wú)效。 這一180度的轉(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致假期期間航班數(shù)量的增加。  

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

OPEC, EIA, IEA each have different 2022 oil demand forecasts

Oil forecasters have parted company on their views about demand in the coming months, as the omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus spreads rapidly around the world. And producers have emerged as the surprising bulls in the latest round of estimates.

The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have all updated their oil market forecasts for the period to the end of next year. Each is trying to get to grips with the impact of the latest coronavirus strain, identified only in late November and already accounting for 20% of confirmed cases in England.

One change stands out: their view of oil demand in the first quarter of 2022.

While rising case numbers and international travel restrictions have led the IEA and EIA to cut their estimates of consumption through March, OPEC is on a very different path. Its forecast for the current quarter remains unchanged from the one it published a month ago, while its outlook for the start of 2022 has been revised upward by 1.1 million barrels a day.

Out of Step

OPEC places its more optimistic outlook on the assumption that the impact of the omicron variant on oil demand will “be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges.”

The producer group sees demand growth underpinned by “a steady economic outlook in both the advanced and emerging economies,

despite current inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, ongoing trade issues and their impact on industrial and transportation fuel requirements.”

While the jump in OPEC’s forecast of the level of global oil demand in the first quarter of next year is big, it is really driven by changes made to the group’s assessment of the level of demand a year earlier, in the first three months of 2021.

Asia Drives Demand

Upward revisions to those figures — led by increases in estimates of consumption in the biggest country of Asia and other non-OECD Asian countries, excluding India — combined with steady levels of year-on-year growth, result in the observed jump in demand at the start of next year.

At 5.3 million barrels a day, OPEC’s view of first quarter 2022 global oil demand growth is now very close to the 5.34 million barrels forecast by the EIA. While the U.S.-based agency cut its forecast of demand for the same period by 550,000 barrels a day, it made an even bigger reduction of 700,000 barrels to its estimate for the first quarter of this year. As a result, its forecast of year-on-year demand growth over the three months from January actually increased.

The International Energy Agency is alone in slashing its outlook for both the level of demand in first-quarter 2022 and year-on-year growth. It cut its forecast of total oil demand in the first three months of next year by 630,000 barrels a day, almost all of it in the form of jet fuel/kerosene, which it reduced by nearly 600,000 barrels in response to “revised flight schedules and reported booking cancellations.”

That view may start to look overly pessimistic in light of Tuesday’s decision by the U.K. government to end quarantine requirements for travelers arriving from 11 countries in southern Africa, which it has now deemed as ineffective in halting the spread of the omicron variant. That U-turn could result in a pick-up in flights over the holiday period.

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