天天人人精品_91p在线观看_久久久久国产成人精品亚洲午夜_欧美黄 片免费观看_日韩中文字幕_一区二区三区影院

歐佩克、EIA和IEA對明年全球石油需求預測各不相同

   2021-12-17 互聯網綜合消息

57

核心提示:據美國彭博新聞社12月15日倫敦報道,由于變異毒株奧密克戎在全球迅速傳播,石油預測機構對未來幾個月的全球

據美國彭博新聞社12月15日倫敦報道,由于變異毒株奧密克戎在全球迅速傳播,石油預測機構對未來幾個月的全球石油需求看法不一。在最新一輪的預測中,石油生產商出人意料地成為了多頭。

國際能源署(IEA)、美國能源信息署(EIA)和石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)都更新了他們對截至明年年底的石油市場預測。 每個機構都在設法應對最新的冠狀病毒奧密克戎毒株的影響,這種毒株在11月底才被發現,已經占英國確診病例的20%。 

一個明顯的變化是:上述3個機構對2022年第一季度全球石油需求的預測各不相同。  

盡管確證病例數的上升和國際旅行限制已導致IEA和EIA下調了他們對到明年3月份的全球石油消費量的估計,但歐佩克卻走了一條截然不同的道路。歐佩克對當前季度的預測與一個月前發布的預測持平,而對2022年開始的預測被向上修正了110萬桶/日。 

步調不一致  

歐佩克認為,奧密克戎變異株對全球石油需求的影響“將是溫和和短暫的,因為世界將更好地應對疫情及其相關挑戰。”

歐佩克認為,“盡管目前存在通貨膨脹和供應鏈瓶頸,持續的貿易問題以及它們對工業和運輸燃料需求的影響,但發達經濟體和新興經濟體的經濟前景都很穩定。” 

盡管歐佩克對明年第一季度全球石油需求水平的預測大幅上升,但這實際上是受歐佩克一年前(2021年前3個月)對需求水平評估的變化推動的。  

亞洲驅動需求

由于亞洲大國和除印度以外的其它非經合組織亞洲國家的消費預期上調,再加上穩定的同比增長水平,上述數據被向上修正,導致明年年初的需求出現躍升。 

歐佩克對2022年第一季度全球石油需求增長的預測為每天530萬桶,現在非常接近EIA預測的534萬桶。 雖然IEA將同期的全球每天石油需求預期下調了55萬桶,但把今年第一季度的日均需求預期下調了70萬桶,降幅更大。 因此,從明年1月份開始的3個月的需求同比增長預測值實際上有所提高。

只有IEA下調了其對2022年第一季度全球石油需求水平和同比增長的預期。 由于航班時刻表修改以及預訂被取消,IEA把明年前三個月全球石油需求總量的預測每天削減63萬桶,其中航空燃油/煤油日需求量減少近60萬桶。

鑒于英國政府周二決定取消對來自非洲南部11個國家的旅行者的隔離要求,這種觀點可能開始顯得過于悲觀。英國政府現在認為,這一舉措對阻止奧密克戎病毒變體的傳播無效。 這一180度的轉變可能會導致假期期間航班數量的增加。  

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下:

OPEC, EIA, IEA each have different 2022 oil demand forecasts

Oil forecasters have parted company on their views about demand in the coming months, as the omicron variant of the Covid-19 virus spreads rapidly around the world. And producers have emerged as the surprising bulls in the latest round of estimates.

The International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have all updated their oil market forecasts for the period to the end of next year. Each is trying to get to grips with the impact of the latest coronavirus strain, identified only in late November and already accounting for 20% of confirmed cases in England.

One change stands out: their view of oil demand in the first quarter of 2022.

While rising case numbers and international travel restrictions have led the IEA and EIA to cut their estimates of consumption through March, OPEC is on a very different path. Its forecast for the current quarter remains unchanged from the one it published a month ago, while its outlook for the start of 2022 has been revised upward by 1.1 million barrels a day.

Out of Step

OPEC places its more optimistic outlook on the assumption that the impact of the omicron variant on oil demand will “be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges.”

The producer group sees demand growth underpinned by “a steady economic outlook in both the advanced and emerging economies,

despite current inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, ongoing trade issues and their impact on industrial and transportation fuel requirements.”

While the jump in OPEC’s forecast of the level of global oil demand in the first quarter of next year is big, it is really driven by changes made to the group’s assessment of the level of demand a year earlier, in the first three months of 2021.

Asia Drives Demand

Upward revisions to those figures — led by increases in estimates of consumption in the biggest country of Asia and other non-OECD Asian countries, excluding India — combined with steady levels of year-on-year growth, result in the observed jump in demand at the start of next year.

At 5.3 million barrels a day, OPEC’s view of first quarter 2022 global oil demand growth is now very close to the 5.34 million barrels forecast by the EIA. While the U.S.-based agency cut its forecast of demand for the same period by 550,000 barrels a day, it made an even bigger reduction of 700,000 barrels to its estimate for the first quarter of this year. As a result, its forecast of year-on-year demand growth over the three months from January actually increased.

The International Energy Agency is alone in slashing its outlook for both the level of demand in first-quarter 2022 and year-on-year growth. It cut its forecast of total oil demand in the first three months of next year by 630,000 barrels a day, almost all of it in the form of jet fuel/kerosene, which it reduced by nearly 600,000 barrels in response to “revised flight schedules and reported booking cancellations.”

That view may start to look overly pessimistic in light of Tuesday’s decision by the U.K. government to end quarantine requirements for travelers arriving from 11 countries in southern Africa, which it has now deemed as ineffective in halting the spread of the omicron variant. That U-turn could result in a pick-up in flights over the holiday period.




免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以敬意。如果您認為本站文章侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。
 
 
更多>同類資訊
  • china
  • 沒有留下簽名~~
推薦圖文
推薦資訊
點擊排行
網站首頁  |  關于我們  |  聯系方式  |  使用說明  |  隱私政策  |  免責聲明  |  網站地圖  |   |  工信部粵ICP備05102027號

粵公網安備 44040202001354號

 
主站蜘蛛池模板: 色综合网在线 | 中文字幕av一区二区三区 | 国产精品1区 | 日韩精品在线视频观看 | 可以免费看黄色的网站 | 综合视频一区 | 97伦理在线| 精品久久av | 国产精品色婷婷亚洲综合看 | 美女88av| 国产精品久久久91 | 一区二区三区国产在线观看 | 精品久久久久久久久久 | 日韩免费在线 | 亚洲天堂中文字幕 | 久久久久久久久99精品 | 亚洲日本va中文字幕 | 久久精品伊人 | 在线免费色视频 | 福利精品视频 | 久久99精品久久久久久久 | 国产激情在线看 | 国产成人av综合 | 91精品久久久久久久久中文字幕 | 日韩成人在线影院 | 自拍视频网站 | 日韩国产| 日韩高清不卡一区二区三区 | 亚洲成人精品在线 | 99er视频 | 欧美一区永久视频免费观看 | 成人刺激视频在线 | 成年女人免费v片 | 久草在线视频网 | 亚洲一区高清 | 欧洲一区二区在线观看 | 成人综合区 | 国产伦精品一区二区三区四区视频 | 欧美一区二区三区在线 | 亚洲小视频网站 | 午夜资源 |