據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月30日消息稱，英國(guó)石油公司(bp)周一表示，全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將在本世紀(jì)20年代末至30年代初達(dá)到峰值，原因是地緣政治沖突正在加速對(duì)清潔能源的投資，各國(guó)政府正尋求通過(guò)提高可再生能源在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的比例來(lái)加強(qiáng)能源安全。

在最受關(guān)注的行業(yè)報(bào)告之一，bp的《2023年能源展望》(對(duì)2050年的預(yù)測(cè))稱，隨著公路運(yùn)輸使用量的下降，所有三種可能情境下的石油需求都將下降。

bp表示：“未來(lái)10年左右，全球石油需求將趨于平穩(wěn)，之后將出現(xiàn)下降，部分原因是隨著車(chē)輛效率提高，替代能源越來(lái)越多，道路運(yùn)輸用油將減少?！?/p>

在“新勢(shì)頭”情景中，bp在展望中提出了反映能源系統(tǒng)“當(dāng)前大軌跡”的三種情景之一，到本十年結(jié)束時(shí)，全球石油需求仍接近目前的1億桶/天，到2035年將降至約9300萬(wàn)桶/天。“加速”情景預(yù)計(jì)2030年石油需求為9100萬(wàn)桶/天，2035年為8000萬(wàn)桶/天，而“凈零”情景預(yù)計(jì)2030年需求將降至8500萬(wàn)桶/天，到2035年進(jìn)一步降至7000萬(wàn)桶/天。

根據(jù)展望，天然氣的前景取決于能源轉(zhuǎn)型的速度，短期內(nèi)液化天然氣貿(mào)易將增長(zhǎng)，但2030年后前景將變得更加不確定。

bp首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Spencer Dale表示，《2023年展望》中的情景已經(jīng)更新，以考慮到戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以及美國(guó)通過(guò)的《降低通脹法案》。

Dale說(shuō)：“最重要的是，各國(guó)希望通過(guò)減少對(duì)進(jìn)口能源（以化石燃料為主）的依賴來(lái)加強(qiáng)能源安全，獲得更多國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的能源——其中大部分可能來(lái)自可再生能源和其他非化石能源——這表明地緣政治沖突可能會(huì)加快能源轉(zhuǎn)型的步伐。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

BP Believes Oil Demand Will Peak Near 2030 As Shift To Renewables Accelerates

Global oil demand is expected to peak between the late 2020s and early 2030s as the war is accelerating investment in clean energy and governments are looking to bolster energy security with higher shares of renewables in the energy mix, BP said on Monday.

In one of the most closely-watched industry reports, the BP Energy Outlook 2023 with projections through 2050 says that oil demand falls over the outlook in all three scenarios as use in road transportation declines.

“Global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources,” BP said.

In the “New Momentum” scenario, BP’s one of three scenarios in the outlook reflecting “the current broad trajectory” of energy systems, global oil demand remains close to the current 100 million bpd by the end of this decade and drops to around 93 million bpd in 2035. The “Accelerated” scenario projects oil demand at 91 million bpd in 2030 and 80 million bpd in 2035, while the “Net Zero” scenario sees demand dropping to 85 million bpd in 2030, and further down to 70 million bpd by 2035.

The prospects for natural gas depend on the speed of the energy transition, according to BP’s outlook, which sees LNG trade growing in the near term, but the outlook becoming more uncertain after 2030.

The scenarios in Outlook 2023 have been updated to take account of the war, as well as of the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale said.

“Most importantly, the desire of countries to bolster their energy security by reducing their dependency on imported energy – dominated by fossil fuels – and instead have access to more domestically produced energy – much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil energy sources – suggests that the war is likely to accelerate the pace of the energy transition,” Dale said.