據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)機(jī)構(gòu)周二發(fā)布的《短期能源展望》，EIA上調(diào)了今年和明年布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的預(yù)測。

根據(jù)該報(bào)告，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均每桶82.62美元，較之前上調(diào)了約4美元。明年，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測布倫特原油平均每桶價(jià)格將達(dá)到86.48美元，較之前上調(diào)了約2美元，漲幅為3.6%。

對(duì)于8月份，EIA預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油平均每桶價(jià)格為85美元。

EIA在最新預(yù)測中表示：“由于沙特阿拉伯延長了自愿減產(chǎn)的原因以及全球需求增加，原油價(jià)格自6月份以來有所上漲。我們預(yù)計(jì)這些因素將繼續(xù)減少全球石油庫存，并在未來幾個(gè)月對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生上行壓力，預(yù)計(jì)2023年下半年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均為每桶86美元，較我們7月份的短期能源展望預(yù)測上調(diào)約7美元。”

EIA預(yù)計(jì)明年全球石油產(chǎn)量的增加將能夠滿足石油需求，從而在2024年第二季度對(duì)油價(jià)施加一定下行壓力。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)今年美國原油產(chǎn)量平均為每日1280萬桶，明年將達(dá)到1310萬桶，這將超過以往的年度最高水平，原因是預(yù)計(jì)井口生產(chǎn)率提高以及原油價(jià)格上漲。2022年，美國原油產(chǎn)量為日均1191萬桶。

預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油產(chǎn)量將增加每日140萬桶，其中非歐佩克產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加每日210萬桶。明年，EIA預(yù)測全球原油產(chǎn)量將每日增加170萬桶。

根據(jù)EIA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年布倫特原油價(jià)格平均為每桶100.94美元，而2021年為每桶70.89美元。

胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA Raises Brent Spot Price Forecast

The Energy Information Administration raised its outlook for Brent crude oil spot prices for this year and next, according to the agency’s Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.

The EIA sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $82.62 per barrel this year—an upward revision of some $4 per barrel, the STEO showed. For next year, the EIA predicts Brent will average $86.48 per barrel, an upward revision of some $2 per barrel, or 3.6%.

For August, the EIA sees Brent crude averaging $85 per barrel.

“Crude oil prices have increased since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and increasing global demand. We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, with the Brent price averaging $86/b in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up about $7/b from our July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast for the same period,” the EIA said in its latest forecast.

Rising global oil production anticipated next year is expected to keep up with oil demand, keeping some downward pressure on prices in Q2 2024.

The EIA sees crude oil production in the United States averaging 12.8 million barrels per day this year, and 13.1 million bpd next year, beating annual records on the back of expectations for higher well-level productivity and higher crude prices. U.S. crude oil production in 2922 averaged 11.91 million bpd.

Global oil production is expected to increase by 1.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC production expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd. Next year, the EIA is forecasting a 1.7 million bpd rise in global crude oil production.

Brent crude prices averaged $100.94 last year, and $70.89 in 2021, EIA data shows.