???? 據(jù)2月7日The Motley Fool報(bào)道,能源行業(yè)的趨勢通常是由影響該行業(yè)所有公司的廣泛而普遍的趨勢所定義的。在20世紀(jì)初，該行業(yè)最大的趨勢是，石油作為運(yùn)輸燃料和煤炭作為電力燃料的大幅增長。

????在過去的20年里，煤炭已經(jīng)被天然氣和更劃算、更清潔的可再生能源發(fā)電燃料所取代。交通運(yùn)輸市場很可能是下一個(gè)發(fā)生重大變化的板塊，因?yàn)閹缀跛械钠囍圃焐潭紝⑼瞥鲭妱?dòng)汽車(EVs)。

????特斯拉的成功表明電動(dòng)汽車的需求是強(qiáng)勁的，但這個(gè)市場還很年輕，還沒有對石油股票造成太大影響。值得注意的是，通用汽車承諾到2035年只生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車這樣的重大舉措，將有助于推動(dòng)世界能源轉(zhuǎn)型，投資者應(yīng)該對此做好準(zhǔn)備!

????一是，電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展。

????多年來，電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)一直在緩慢發(fā)展，而如今該行業(yè)的規(guī)模讓石油市場趕到不安。根據(jù)美國能源部(U.S. Department of Energy)的數(shù)據(jù)，2011年共有17763輛插電式電動(dòng)汽車售出，幾乎不足以對汽車市場產(chǎn)生影響。但這一數(shù)字在2019年增至326644輛。這意味著美國的汽車銷量在以每年44%的速度增長，市場份額也從每年約1700萬輛的0.1%增長到1.9%左右。

????如果美國繼續(xù)保持44%的增長速度，電動(dòng)汽車將只需10多年的時(shí)間就可以取代所有汽油驅(qū)動(dòng)的汽車。雖然從燃油汽車轉(zhuǎn)型不太可能那么快，但通用汽車的承諾表明，該公司看不到內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車的未來。隨著Fisker、Rivian、Nikola等“新貴”在未來幾年推出極具吸引力的產(chǎn)品，燃油汽車的未來看起來并不樂觀。

????二是，石油市場已陷入困境。

????如果電動(dòng)汽車在汽車行業(yè)占據(jù)了一定的市場份額，那么石油消費(fèi)將會(huì)緩慢下降，這是有道理的，而這對石油市場來說并不是個(gè)好消息。

????過去十年里，石油消費(fèi)增長放緩。盡管2005年至2015年油價(jià)高企期間，燃油需求的下降幅度被強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)和低油價(jià)下卡車和SUV銷量的激增所取代。但在過去的15年里，美國的需求在電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)發(fā)展帶來重大影響之前，就已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了下降的跡象。

????這些都表明美國未來十年對石油公司的需求不會(huì)強(qiáng)勁。上述數(shù)據(jù)是針對美國的，但在世界第二大石油消費(fèi)國，轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車的速度可能更快。該國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)估計(jì)，在2021年售出的2600萬輛汽車中，有180萬輛可能是電動(dòng)汽車，占6.9%。如果世界上最大的兩個(gè)石油消費(fèi)國迅速轉(zhuǎn)向電動(dòng)汽車，這可能會(huì)給已經(jīng)陷入困境的石油企業(yè)帶來麻煩。

????三是，石油類股不容樂觀。

????過去十年里，埃克森美孚、雪佛龍、道達(dá)爾和荷蘭皇家殼牌的凈利潤都在下降，股價(jià)也在下跌。如果電動(dòng)汽車銷量繼續(xù)以現(xiàn)在的速度增長，很多跡象表明石油類股票將變得更糟。

????雖然這里著重強(qiáng)調(diào)了大型石油公司，但隨著電動(dòng)汽車不斷占領(lǐng)市場份額，我們將看到石油行業(yè)大大小小的企業(yè)都受到了沖擊。石油生產(chǎn)商將繼續(xù)面臨價(jià)格壓力，中游公司需要運(yùn)輸?shù)氖蛯p少，銷售企業(yè)將看到銷量下降。

????未來10年汽車行業(yè)的大趨勢將是從燃油汽車向電動(dòng)汽車的轉(zhuǎn)變，而且這一轉(zhuǎn)變的速度比大多數(shù)人想象的要快。10年后，石油行業(yè)可能會(huì)像今天的煤炭行業(yè)一樣陷入困境。

????石油市場可能是下一個(gè)下跌的市場，鑒于如此多的汽車公司都在關(guān)注電動(dòng)汽車，投資者應(yīng)該遠(yuǎn)離石油類股。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 The Motley Fool

????原文如下：

????Warning to Energy Investors: Coal Is Dead and Oil Is Next

????The energy industry is often defined by big, sweeping trends that shape all of the companies in it. In the early 20th century, the biggest trends were the growth of oil as a transportation fuel, and coal as a fuel for electricity consumption.

????In the past two decades, coal has been shoved aside for natural gas and renewable energy power plants that are more cost-effective and cleaner. Transportation markets are likely next, with electric vehicles (EVs) offered by nearly every manufacturer in the industry.

????The success of Tesla has shown that demand for EVs is strong, but the market is still very young and hasn't disrupted oil stocks much yet. But big moves like General Motors' (NYSE:GM) commitment to build nothing but electric vehicles by 2035 will help push the world beyond oil. Investors should prepare themselves and their portfolios now!

????The writing is on the wall

????EVs have been slowly gaining ground for years, but it's their current scale that makes them so troubling for oil markets. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there were 17,763 plug-in EVs sold in 2011, barely enough to have an effect on the auto market. But that number increased to 326,644 in 2019. That's an annual growth rate of 44% and a market share increase from 0.1% to about 1.9% of the approximately 17 million vehicles sold each year.

????If that 44% growth continues in the U.S., EVs will replace all gasoline-powered vehicles in just over a decade. The transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles won't likely happen that quickly, but GM's commitment shows that it doesn't see a future in internal-combustion vehicles. And with upstarts like Fisker, Rivian, Nikola, and many others hitting the market in the next few years with extremely compelling offerings, the future of gasoline-powered vehicles doesn't look good.

????Oil markets struggled even before EVs

????If EVs take market share in the auto industry, it would make sense that oil consumption will slowly fall. And that's not good news given the trends taking shape in oil markets.

????The chart below shows that we've seen a slowdown, if not decline in oil consumption growth. The chart below shows a decline in oil demand over the past decade, although the trend toward fuel efficiency vehicles from 2005 to 2015 when oil prices were high has been replaced by a surge in truck and SUV sales on the back of a strong economy and low oil prices. But we can see that over the course of 15 years, U.S. demand is already showing signs of declining even before much of an impact of electric vehicles.

????None of this points to a strong demand environment for oil companies over the next decade in the U.S. The data above is for the U.S., but in the world's second largest oil consuming country, the shift to EVs may happen more quickly. This country's Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that 1.8 million of the estimated 26 million, or 6.9%, of vehicles sold in 2021 could be EVs. If the two biggest oil consuming countries in the world are shifting quickly to EVs, it could spell trouble for oil businesses that are already starting to struggle.

????Oil stocks are in trouble

????The next two charts show the kind of financial position some of the biggest companies in the world are in. Over the past decade, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total (NYSE:TOT), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) have all seen net income drop and stock prices flounder.

????I think if EV sales continue to grow at the rate they are, there's a lot pointing to the financial condition of oil stocks getting much worse.

????I've highlighted big oil companies here, but up and down the oil industry, we will see financial performance struggle as EVs take market share. Producers will continue to see price pressure, midstream companies will have less oil to transport, and marketers will see volumes go down.

????Stay away from oil stocks

????The megatrend over the next decade will be a transition away from gasoline vehicles to EVs, and it's happening faster than most people think. A decade from now, the oil industry could be in dire straights, just like coal is today.

????Oil markets could be the next to fall, and with so many auto companies putting their focus on EVs, investors should stay far away from oil stocks.