???? 據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶3月3日報(bào)道，挪威能源咨詢公司雷斯塔的最新分析表明，歐佩克+ 4月份可能會將產(chǎn)量提高130萬桶/天，保持市場平衡。

????據(jù)雷斯塔德石油市場負(fù)責(zé)人Bjornar Tonhaugen周二在一份發(fā)給Rigzone的聲明中表示:“我們還預(yù)計(jì)，沙特阿拉伯將逐步恢復(fù)其額外的每天100萬桶的減產(chǎn)，這并非協(xié)議的正式內(nèi)容。”

????他補(bǔ)充稱:“到2021年晚些時(shí)候，沙特阿拉伯可能會在年底前略微削減產(chǎn)量。”

????在聲明中，Tonhaugen指出，目前的油價(jià)水平“非常健康”，已經(jīng)引發(fā)了橫跨大西洋的美洲石油生產(chǎn)活動的增加。

????他表示:“歐佩克+當(dāng)然不想錯(cuò)過，許多石油盟國認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在是他們享受克制得來的果實(shí)、提高石油產(chǎn)量的時(shí)候了。”

????雷斯塔的代表預(yù)測，如果歐佩克+決定將產(chǎn)量提高50萬桶/天，即使價(jià)格將反映這一發(fā)展趨勢，其影響也將是“微不足道的”。

????“然而，歐佩克+的更大規(guī)模增產(chǎn)可能引發(fā)油價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌。然而，由于油價(jià)已經(jīng)超過了60美元，這并不是一個(gè)真正可怕的打擊。只要油價(jià)超過50美元，不低于60美元的門檻，那么盈利能力仍然存在。”

????在仔細(xì)觀察沙特阿拉伯額外的每日減產(chǎn)100萬桶后，Tonhaugen警告稱，即使歐佩克+決定從4月起適度增產(chǎn)，如果沙特阿拉伯恢復(fù)額外的100萬桶，影響將是“相當(dāng)大的”。

????他表示:“兩個(gè)月前，沙特出人意料地宣布取消石油生產(chǎn)，使得油價(jià)上漲了幾美元。若這一政策又忽然發(fā)生變化，那么上漲的油價(jià)也會受到影響。”

????Tonhaugen繼續(xù)表示:“如此大規(guī)模的意外政策變化帶來了市場大規(guī)模反應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因此在即將到來的歐佩克+會議中，沙特的決定可能比集團(tuán)政策更加重要。”

????歐佩克+計(jì)劃于3月4日通過視頻會議舉行會議。歐佩克+在1月份的上次會議上承認(rèn)，有必要逐步向市場恢復(fù)200萬桶/日的產(chǎn)量，“速度將根據(jù)市場情況而定”。歐佩克＋還重申了上次會議的決定，即從2021年1月起，將日產(chǎn)量增加50萬桶，將減產(chǎn)幅度從770萬桶調(diào)整為720萬桶。

????裘寅 編譯自 Rigzone

????原文如下：

????OPEC+ Could Add 1.3MM Bpd and Keep Market Balanced

????Rystad Energy’s latest analysis indicates that OPEC+ could raise production by 1.3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in April and keep the market balanced.

????“We also expect Saudi Arabia to gradually bring back its extra one million barrels per day in cuts, which are not officially part of the agreement,” Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.

????“Later in 2021, Saudi Arabia may slightly cut back on production volumes，” he added.

????In the statement, Tonhaugen noted that current oil price levels are “more than healthy” and have already triggered increased oil production activity across the Atlantic in the Americas.

????“OPEC+ reasonably will not want to miss out and not taste the cake it baked itself with hard work,” he said. “Many members of the alliance believe that it’s about time they enjoy the fruit of their restraint and raise oil output,” Tonhaugen added.

????The Rystad representative predicted that, if OPEC+ decides to lift output by 500,000 bpd, even though prices will reflect the development, the effect will be “marginal”.

????“A larger production boost by OPEC+ though could trigger a deeper decline in oil prices. However, since they are already topping $60, it won’t really be such a terrible blow. Profitability remains even below that threshold anyway, at above $50,” Tonhaugen stated.

????Looking closer at Saudi Arabia’s extra million barrel per day cuts, Tonhaugen warned that, even if OPEC+ decides a modest output hike from April, if Saudi Arabia brings back those extra million barrels the impact will be “quite massive”.

????“Oil prices rose by several dollars when the Saudis announced their surprise decision to remove that production two months ago and these extra dollars can be cut back if that soft pillow is suddenly lost,” he said.

????“Unexpected policy changes of that magnitude entail the risk of large market reactions, so in the coming OPEC+ meeting the Saudi decision could weigh even more in importance than the group policy,” Tonhaugen continued.

????OPEC+ is scheduled to meet via videoconference on March 4. OPEC+’s last meeting in January acknowledged the need to gradually return two million bpd to the market, “with the pace being determined according to market conditions”. It also reconfirmed the decision made at the previous meeting to increase production by 500,000 bpd starting in January 2021 and adjusting the production reduction from 7.7 MMbpd to 7.2 MMbpd.?