???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月17日消息稱，周三，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)在其2021年石油年度報(bào)告中做出了預(yù)測(cè)，全球石油需求將需要到2023年才能恢復(fù)到疫情前的1億桶/天的水平，但2019冠狀病毒病將永遠(yuǎn)改變消費(fèi)者的部分行為，到2026年全球汽油需求可能已經(jīng)超過(guò)峰值。
????到2026年，全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到1.041億桶/天，比2019年水平增加440萬(wàn)桶/天。盡管如此，預(yù)計(jì)2025年的石油消費(fèi)量將比該機(jī)構(gòu)去年的估計(jì)低250萬(wàn)桶/天。
????IEA在其年度報(bào)告中表示：“全球石油需求仍在受疫情影響的影響，不太可能趕上疫情之前的軌跡。”
????總部位于巴黎的該機(jī)構(gòu)指出，盡管石油需求將從危機(jī)的水平開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，但“在后疫情時(shí)代，石油市場(chǎng)可能不會(huì)恢復(fù)到‘正常'狀態(tài)。”
????全球汽油需求可能在2019年達(dá)到峰值，因?yàn)槿加托实奶岣吆拖螂妱?dòng)汽車的轉(zhuǎn)變“超過(guò)了發(fā)展中國(guó)家強(qiáng)勁的機(jī)動(dòng)性增長(zhǎng)”。
????IEA預(yù)測(cè)，航空燃油是石油需求中受沖擊最嚴(yán)重的部分，到2024年，其需求不會(huì)恢復(fù)到2019年的水平，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，由于疫情期間的在線會(huì)議減少了需求，商務(wù)旅行可能會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)改變。
????IEA表示，煉油行業(yè)將繼續(xù)與產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩作斗爭(zhēng)，全球范圍內(nèi)新一輪煉油合理化浪潮正在進(jìn)行。
????該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，在已經(jīng)宣布的360萬(wàn)桶/天關(guān)閉煉油廠的基礎(chǔ)上，至少需要再關(guān)閉600萬(wàn)桶/天，才能使全球煉油利用率恢復(fù)到80%以上的正常水平。
????曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
????原文如下：
????IEA: Oil Demand Will Not Return To Pre-Crisis Levels Until 2023
????Global oil demand will take until 2023 to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd, but COVID-19 will change parts of consumer behavior forever with global gasoline demand likely past its peak already, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday in its annual Oil 2021 report with projections through 2026.
????By 2026, global oil demand is expected at 104.1 million bpd, up by 4.4 million bpd compared to 2019 levels. Still, consumption in 2025 is projected 2.5 million bpd lower than the agency’s estimates from last year.
????“Global oil demand, still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, is unlikely to catch up with its pre-Covid trajectory,” the IEA said in its annual report.
????Although oil demand is set to grow from the crisis levels, “there may be no return to ‘normal’ for the oil market in the post-Covid era,” the Paris-based agency noted.
????Gasoline demand worldwide likely saw its peak in 2019 because fuel efficiency gains and a shift to electric vehicles (EVs) “eclipse robust mobility growth in the developing world.”
????Demand for jet fuel—the hardest hit segment of oil demand—will not return to 2019 levels by 2024, the IEA forecasts, adding that business travel could be forever changed, with muted demand due to the online meetings during the pandemic.
????The refining sector will continue to struggle with excess capacity, and a new wave of refinery rationalization around the world is underway, said the IEA.
????At least 6 million bpd of additional refinery shutdowns—on top of already announced 3.6 million bpd closures—will be necessary so that the global refining utilization rates return to normal levels of above 80 percent, the agency says.?
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