據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，高盛公司近日再次重申了其此前對(duì)布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)，即隨著需求迅速?gòu)?fù)蘇，布倫特原油價(jià)格將在今年夏季達(dá)到每桶80美元。
據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，高盛公司在一份報(bào)告中稱：“疫苗接種率的上升導(dǎo)致美國(guó)和歐洲的流動(dòng)性增加，5月份全球石油日需求量估計(jì)增加150萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到9650萬(wàn)桶。”
高盛公司最初在今年3月份曾表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將在今年第三季度達(dá)到80美元/桶。
然后，在4月份，高盛公司重申了自己的預(yù)測(cè)，指出“決不能低估需求量即將發(fā)生的變化，而這種變化是供給無(wú)法比擬的。”
一個(gè)月后，高盛公司分析師寫(xiě)道：“面對(duì)缺乏彈性的供應(yīng)，疫苗驅(qū)動(dòng)的需求大幅增加，因此油價(jià)上漲的理由依然存在。”
同時(shí)，歐佩克曾表示，預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油需求將上升600萬(wàn)桶，而IEA預(yù)測(cè)今年將增加540萬(wàn)桶，明年再增加310萬(wàn)桶，在明年年底前回到和超過(guò)疫情前水平，達(dá)到1.006億桶/天。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Goldman Sachs Doubles Down On $80 Oil Prediction
Goldman Sachs has reiterated its forecast that Brent crude will hit $80 per barrel this summer as demand quickly recovers.
"Rising vaccination rates are leading to higher mobility in the U.S. and Europe, with global demand estimated up 1.5 mb/d (million barrels per day) in the last month to 96.5 mb/d," the investment bank said in a note as quoted by Reuters.
Goldman first said it expected Brent to hit $80 this year in March, expecting this to happen by the third quarter of this year.
Then, in April, the bank reiterated its forecast, noting, "The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated."
A month later, Goldman analysts wrote that "The case for higher oil prices therefore remains intact given the large vaccine-driven increase in demand in the face of inelastic supply,"
Meanwhile, OPEC has said it expected oil demand to rise by 6 million bpd this year, and the International Energy Agency forecast it would add 5.4 million bpd this year and another 3.1 million bpd next year, returning to and exceeding pre-pandemic levels to reach 100.6 million bpd by the end of 2022.
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