據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年6月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在其最新月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中稱，全球石油需求將回升至新冠肺炎疫情大流行前水平，并在明年年底前超過(guò)此水平，達(dá)到1.006億桶/天。

　　然而，這只有在“沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步的政策變化”的情況下才會(huì)發(fā)生。

　　IEA稱，今年全球石油日需求將增加大約540萬(wàn)桶，明年將放緩至310萬(wàn)桶。

　　IEA稱，石油供應(yīng)也將增加，明年非歐佩克產(chǎn)油量將在美國(guó)的推動(dòng)下日增160萬(wàn)桶。預(yù)計(jì)明年美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量將增加90萬(wàn)桶。

　　IEA表示：“這為歐佩克+留出了空間，在2021年7月至2022年3月的目標(biāo)基礎(chǔ)上，將原油日產(chǎn)量提高140萬(wàn)桶，以滿足全球需求增長(zhǎng)。”

　　IEA指出，這對(duì)卡特爾應(yīng)該不是問(wèn)題。即使歐佩克根據(jù)生產(chǎn)控制協(xié)議從下月開(kāi)始將產(chǎn)量提高200萬(wàn)桶/天，其成員國(guó)仍將有690萬(wàn)桶/天的備用產(chǎn)能。

　　今年早些時(shí)候，IEA發(fā)現(xiàn)，全球石油需求用了一年多的時(shí)間才回升到大流行前的水平。但6月早些時(shí)候，IEA署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾告訴彭博社，全球石油需求復(fù)蘇的速度快于此前的預(yù)期。因此，除非歐佩克+在7月前恢復(fù)每日200萬(wàn)桶原油供應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上，再向市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)更多原油，否則油價(jià)將隨著缺口的擴(kuò)大而走高。

　　與此同時(shí)，IEA在其月度報(bào)告中指出，這一預(yù)測(cè)為其在5月份發(fā)布的2050年前凈零排放路線圖中概述的目標(biāo)提出了挑戰(zhàn)。

　　IEA指出，全球石油需求似乎將繼續(xù)上升，這突顯出要實(shí)現(xiàn)既定目標(biāo)，需要付出巨大努力。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下；

　　IEA Sees Oil Demand Hitting 100.6 Million Bpd By End-2022

　　Global crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels and exceed them, clocking in at 100.6 million barrels daily by the end of next year, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.

　　This, however, will only happen “in the absence of further policy changes.”

　　This year, demand will grow by some 5.4 million bpd, the agency said, which next year will slow down to 3.1 million bpd.

　　Supply will also increase, the IEA said, with non-OPEC production growing by 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by the United States. U.S. oil production is expected to rise by over 900,000 bpd next year.

　　“That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth,” the IEA said.

　　This should not be a problem for the cartel, the authority noted. Even after the group boosts output by 2 million bpd starting next month per its production control agreement, it would still leave members with a combined spare capacity of 6.9 million bpd.

　　The IEA earlier this year saw oil demand taking longer than a year to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. But earlier this month, its executive director Fatih Birol told Bloomberg that demand was recovering faster than previously expected. So unless OPEC+ puts additional barrels on the market on top of the plans to restore 2 million barrels per day by July, oil prices will head higher as the gap widens.

　　At the same time, the IEA noted in its monthly report that this forecast presents a challenge for the goals it outlined in its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, released in May.

　　The agency said. “in the meantime, oil demand looks set to continue to rise, underlining the enormous effort required to get on track to reach stated ambitions.”

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