據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，路透社援引兩名歐佩克+消息人士的話稱，歐佩克+可能就當(dāng)前石油生產(chǎn)協(xié)議期限的延長(zhǎng)方面進(jìn)行討論，或?qū)⒀娱L(zhǎng)至2022年4月的原定期限之后。

　　歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)的部長(zhǎng)們于7月1日開(kāi)會(huì)，決定如何從8月開(kāi)始減緩石油減產(chǎn)，屆時(shí)該組織將從市場(chǎng)上收回約200萬(wàn)桶/天的石油產(chǎn)量。不過(guò)，歐佩克+仍將維持約570萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。

　　此前，歐佩克+對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)基本面和前景的樂(lè)觀評(píng)估顯示，石油市場(chǎng)的整體狀況已明顯改善。分析師普遍預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克+將于7月1日決定在8月1日之前進(jìn)一步減少減產(chǎn)規(guī)模，多數(shù)專家認(rèn)為8月產(chǎn)量將增加50萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　有報(bào)道稱，除了8月份的產(chǎn)量水平談判外，可能還會(huì)討論將協(xié)議延長(zhǎng)到4月份以后。這與路透社之前的一篇報(bào)道相符，該報(bào)道稱，在2022年4月之后，市場(chǎng)上的石油供應(yīng)將嚴(yán)重過(guò)剩。

　　據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，歐佩克+聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(huì)(JTC)在一份內(nèi)部報(bào)告中稱:“到2022年，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量將顯著增加，到年底將積壓1.81億桶原油。”

　　據(jù)JTC的內(nèi)部報(bào)告，盡管歐佩克+預(yù)計(jì)今年剩余時(shí)間，經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存將低于五年平均水平，但預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)過(guò)剩將在明年下半年出現(xiàn)。

　　該委員會(huì)于周二召開(kāi)會(huì)議，啟動(dòng)了本周的聯(lián)盟決策會(huì)議。該委員會(huì)的評(píng)估表明，歐佩克+可能會(huì)選擇在2022年4月之后以某種形式繼續(xù)執(zhí)行正在進(jìn)行的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，以確保石油市場(chǎng)的平衡。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC+ May Discuss Extending Oil Production Pact Beyond April 2022

　　The OPEC+ alliance could discuss on Thursday extending the current oil production pact beyond its original end date, April 2022, Reuters reported on Wednesday, quoting two OPEC+ sources.

　　The ministers of the OPEC+ producers meet on July 1 to decide how to proceed with the easing of the oil production cuts from August, when the group will have returned around 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from its oil output on the market. However, OPEC+ still keeps some 5.7 million bpd off the market, and analysts and traders expect the group’s decision tomorrow.

　　The alliance said on Tuesday that the overall conditions in the oil market had significantly improved in an optimistic assessment of fundamentals and prospects ahead of Thursday’s decision.

　　Analysts largely expect OPEC+ to decide on July 1 to further ease the cuts as of August 1, with most experts gravitating toward a 500,000-bpd increase for the month of August.

　　Reports of possible discussions on Thursday about an extension of the agreement beyond April, on top of the talks about the August production levels, would fit an earlier Reuters report that the alliance sees a significant overhang of oil supply on the market after April 2022.

　　“In 2022, a significant increase is seen, leading to an overhang of 181 million barrels by the end of the year,” the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) of the OPEC+ group said in an internal report Reuters has seen.

　　While OPEC+ expects commercial oil stocks in OECD nations to be below the five-year average for the rest of this year, it expects the oversupply to return in the second half of next year, according to the JTC’s internal report.

　　This assessment of the panel, whose meeting on Tuesday launched this week’s decision-making gatherings of the coalition, suggests that OPEC+ may opt to continue the ongoing deal in some form after April 2022 to ensure a balanced oil market.

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