???? 據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2021年7月8日迪拜報(bào)道，一份報(bào)告稱，盡管7月歐佩克+會(huì)議從未由于阿聯(lián)酋、沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯未能克服分歧而達(dá)成協(xié)議，但歐佩克+成功經(jīng)受住了時(shí)間的考驗(yàn)，目前僵局中的分歧是可以克服的。

????日本銀行控股和金融服務(wù)公司三菱UFJ金融集團(tuán)(MUFG)在其最新的《石油市場(chǎng)周刊》上表示，阿聯(lián)酋要求從2022年4月(當(dāng)前協(xié)議到期時(shí))起提高基線，而沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯則要求延長(zhǎng)承諾至2022年12月。

????MUFG在報(bào)告中表示：“盡管缺乏協(xié)議給歐佩克+的生產(chǎn)軌跡帶來(lái)了不確定性，并最終導(dǎo)致全球供需平衡，但我們?cè)?月5日列出的基本情況仍然是，在2021年剩余時(shí)間里，每月逐步增加40萬(wàn)桶/天的原油產(chǎn)量，有關(guān)延長(zhǎng)2022年4月之后產(chǎn)量的談判將推遲到晚些時(shí)候。”

????7月5日，歐佩克+未能達(dá)成增加供應(yīng)的協(xié)議，最初將布倫特原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格推高至70美元/桶的高位——這是2018年以來(lái)的最高水平。 此后，由于美元走強(qiáng)、新型冠狀病毒疫情的持續(xù)蔓延以及對(duì)2022年供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的擔(dān)憂，油價(jià)回落。

????報(bào)告稱：“鑒于缺乏歐佩克+協(xié)議將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步出現(xiàn)赤字，我們?cè)趹?zhàn)術(shù)上看好未來(lái)一周，并尋找需求強(qiáng)勁、庫(kù)存下降、溢價(jià)上升以及現(xiàn)貨溢價(jià)更大的遠(yuǎn)期曲線的進(jìn)一步證據(jù)。”

????MUFG表示：“盡管歐佩克+僵局可能在短期內(nèi)推高油價(jià)(我們不排除布倫特原油價(jià)格偶爾會(huì)徘徊在每桶80美元以上)，但我們認(rèn)為油價(jià)目前徘徊在周期峰值附近，仍處于堅(jiān)挺的‘過(guò)度’區(qū)間。”

????MUFG 說(shuō)：“我們的季度預(yù)測(cè)是，布倫特原油價(jià)格在今年第三季度末和第四季度末將分別回落至73美元/桶和64美元/桶。”

????李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????Opec+ stalemate unlikely to last long: MUFG

????While the July Opec+ meeting never concluded as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to overcome their differences, Opec+ has successfully stood the test of time and differences in the current standoff are surmountable, a report said.

????The UAE asked for a higher baseline from April 2022 (when the current deal expires), whilst both Saudi Arabia and Russia asked for an extended commitment to December 2022, said the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a Japanese bank holding and financial services company, in its latest Oil Market Weekly.

????“Whilst this lack of agreement has introduced uncertainty into the Opec+ production trajectory, and ultimately global demand-supply balances, our base case that we catalogued on July 5 remains for a gradual 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) increase in production on a monthly basis for the remainder of 2021 with talks of an extension past April 2022 postponed to a later date,” MUFG said in the report.

????The failure of Opec+ to reach an agreement on July 5 to increase supply initially pushed spot prices for Brent crude into the high $70s/b – levels not seen since 2018. Thereafter, oil prices have retraced its gains due to a strengthening US dollar, the continuing spread of Covid-19’s Delta variant as well as apprehensions of oversupply in 2022.

????“We are tactically bullish for the week ahead given the lack of an Opec+ agreement tilts the market into further deficit, and look for further evidence of demand strength, falling inventories, rising premiums and the forward curve in steeper backwardation,” the report said.

????“Notwithstanding the Opec+ stalemate potentially driving crude higher near-term (we do not rule out Brent sporadically flirting north of $80/b), we believe oil prices are currently hovering close to peak cyclical levels and remain in firm “overshoot” territory,” MUFG said.

????“Our quarterly profile is for Brent to regress lower and end Q3 and Q4 2021 at $73/b and $64/b, respectively.”

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