據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，國際能源署(IEA)周二表示，今年夏季全球煉油吞吐量將大幅增長，以滿足需求反彈。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)在其7月石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中稱，6月全球煉油廠的日產(chǎn)量從5月的停滯增長上升至160萬桶。

　　據(jù)路透社估計(jì)，6月份是自2020年7月以來最大的月度增幅，在6月份之后，煉油廠運(yùn)營預(yù)計(jì)將在7月和8月進(jìn)一步躍升。

　　IEA稱，本月和下個(gè)月的日產(chǎn)量料較6月水準(zhǔn)再增加270萬桶。

　　這家總部位于巴黎的機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，8月之后，2021年第四季度煉油吞吐量將出現(xiàn)季節(jié)性放緩。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)表示：“6月份油價(jià)的大幅上漲，在一定程度上是當(dāng)月原油價(jià)格上漲的原因之一，這對(duì)產(chǎn)品裂縫和煉油廠利潤率造成了負(fù)面影響。”

　　據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，國際能源署在這份報(bào)告中稱，盡管今年夏天煉油廠吞吐量將大幅增長，但第四季度的產(chǎn)量仍將低于2018年的峰值水平。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為，全球煉油率要到2022年底才能回到2018年的水平。國際能源署表示，歐洲煉油廠恢復(fù)到疫情前利用率的速度將較慢。

　　該機(jī)構(gòu)還在今天的報(bào)告中警告稱，石油市場(chǎng)處于緊張狀態(tài)，考慮到歐佩克+聯(lián)盟內(nèi)部可能爆發(fā)新的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。IEA稱，為爭奪市場(chǎng)份額而爆發(fā)新一場(chǎng)“隨產(chǎn)而戰(zhàn)”的可能性目前被認(rèn)為很遙遠(yuǎn)，但該組織在產(chǎn)量配額問題上的持續(xù)僵局也有可能破壞全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

　　“市場(chǎng)份額之爭的可能性雖然微乎其微，但仍籠罩著市場(chǎng)，高油價(jià)引發(fā)通脹、破壞脆弱經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的可能性也是如此。新冠病毒Delta變種在未來幾個(gè)月可能產(chǎn)生的全球影響的不確定性也緩和了市場(chǎng)情緒。”

　　壽琳玲 編譯自 今日油價(jià)

　　IEA: Global Refining Throughput To Jump This Summer

　　Global refining throughput is set to jump this summer to meet rebounding demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

　　Refinery runs globally surged by as much as 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up from a stagnant performance in May, the agency said in its Oil Market Report for July published today.

　　After the June jump, which was the largest monthly increase since July 2020 as per Reuters estimates, refinery runs are expected to further jump through July and August.

　　The increase over this month and next is expected at another 2.7 million bpd from June levels, the IEA said.

　　After August, the Paris-based agency expects a seasonal slowdown in refining throughput in the fourth quarter of 2021.

　　“The sharp increase in June was partly behind higher crude oil prices in the month that negatively affected product cracks and refinery margins,” the agency said.

　　Although refinery throughput will jump this summer, runs in Q4 will still be lower than the peak in 2018, the IEA said in the report, as carried by Reuters.

　　The agency believes that global refining rates will not return to the 2018 levels until the end of 2022. Europe’s refineries would be slower to return to pre-COVID utilization rates, while China will benefit from this, the IEA said.

　　The agency also warned in its report today that the oil market is on edge, entertaining the possibility of a new price war within the OPEC+ alliance. The possibility of a new pump-at-will war for market share is currently assessed as remote, but the ongoing impasse at the group over production quotas is also threatening to derail the global economic recovery, the IEA said.

　　“[T]he possibility of a market share battle, even if remote, is hanging over markets, as is the potential for high fuel prices to stoke inflation and damage a fragile economic recovery. The uncertainty over the potential global impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the coming months is also tempering sentiment,” the IEA’s monthly report says.

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