據今日油價8月11日報道，沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Aramco)預計利潤將增長近300%，因為沙特阿拉伯正經歷著從去年新冠肺炎疫情打擊石油需求后的戲劇性反彈。由于油價自今年年初以來上漲了30%，以及需求穩步增長，沙特阿拉伯的石油行業將在2021年變得更加強勁。

　　石油和天然氣行業在經歷了2020年的停滯后，終于看到了一些增長，這是由于持續的疫苗接種工作，全球限制性措施的放松，以及經濟活動的恢復。

　　沙特阿美本周宣布，2021年第二季度的凈利潤增加了255億美元，或288%。此前，美國埃克森美孚公司宣布第二季度增長47億美元，此外，荷蘭皇家殼牌公司獲得高額利潤，顯示出這個受到重創的行業的恢復力。

　　沙特阿美首席執行官Amin Nasser在一份聲明中表示:“我們第二季度的業績反映了全球能源需求的強勁反彈，隨著全球復蘇勢頭的增強，我們將在2021年下半年更具韌性和靈活性。”

　　沙特政府預計將削減在疫情期間大幅膨脹的預算赤字。沙特阿美的年度股息為750億美元，是世界上最高的，這有助于在新冠疫情限制措施下為沙特阿拉伯提供資金。

　　沙特石油行業的反彈對整體經濟產生了連鎖反應，第二季度非石油行業增長10.1%。國際貨幣基金組織預計，沙特經濟今年將增長2.4%，如果政府決定更快地放松對限制措施，并增加石油生產，恢復速度可能會更快。

　　自今年年初以來，由于產油國削減產量水平以刺激油價上漲，油價持續攀升，歐佩克+最終決定從8月份開始增加石油供應，以在油價過度膨脹之前滿足需求。

　　沙特阿拉伯多年來一直依賴其強大的石油和天然氣行業，現在它也在著眼于石油行業以外的領域，通過數萬億美元的支出來刺激非石油行業。這是沙特2030愿景計劃的一部分，到2025年，公共投資基金每年將向當地經濟注入超過400億美元。

　　然而，如果沙特想繼續看到整個亞洲關鍵市場的需求增長，就必須提高其競爭優勢。Delta病毒的蔓延，各國紛紛出臺了更嚴格的限制措施，加上該地區的廉價競爭對手，沙特阿拉伯在亞洲市場的吸引力難以維持。

　　此外，隨著美國和俄羅斯提供更具競爭力的油價，沙特阿拉伯石油的吸引力似乎有所下降。

　　沙特阿美已將其阿拉伯中質和重質原油的價格提高了約20至30美分/桶。與此同時，美國降低了Mars石油的價格，俄羅斯也對烏拉爾油采取了同樣的做法。這可能會趕走買家，除非沙特阿美對該地區需求水平的定期變化作出更公平的定價回應。

　　隨著需求增加和油價上漲，沙特阿美看到了年度利潤的積極趨勢，因此它必須在這些預期與世界石油市場的持續波動之間取得平衡，世界石油市場仍然受到新冠疫情的影響，而石油市場仍然強勁，石油巨頭們也在推動著更大的競爭。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Saudi Arabia’s Oil Industry Is Staging An Impressive Comeback

　　Aramco sees profits up nearly 300 percent as Sadia Arabia experiences a dramatic rebound from last year’s pandemic-hit oil demand. Thanks to prices that have increased by 30 percent since the beginning of the year, as well as steadily increasing demand, Saudi Arabia’s oil industry is going from strength to strength in 2021.

　　The oil and gas industry is finally seeing some growth after stagnation in 2020 due to ongoing vaccination efforts, the easing of Covid-19 restrictions worldwide, and the return of economic activity.

　　Aramco this week announced a net income increase of $25.5 billion, or 288 percent, in the second quarter of 2021. This comes just after US firm Exxon Mobil announced an increase of $4.7 billion in their second quarter, and high profits from Royal Dutch Shell, showing the resilience of a hard-hit industry.

　　Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco, said in a statement, "Our second-quarter results reflect a strong rebound in worldwide energy demand and we are heading into the second half of 2021 more resilient and more flexible, as the global recovery gains momentum."

　　The Saudi government is now expected to reduce the budget deficit which inflated significantly during the pandemic. Aramco’s annual dividend represented the world’s largest at $75 billion, which helped fund Saudi Arabia while under Covid restrictions.

　　The rebound of Saudi’s oil industry has had a knock-on effect on the economy as a whole which saw a 10.1 percent growth in the non-oil sector in the second quarter. The IMF now anticipates that the Saudi economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, which could happen faster if the government decides to relax Covid restrictions faster as well as boosting oil production.

　　Following a continuous climb in oil prices since the beginning of the year, as producers cut output levels to spur on this price increase, OPEC+ finally decided last month that they would be boosting oil supply from August to meet demand before oil prices become overinflated.

　　Saudi Arabia is also looking beyond its oil industry, after years of dependence on its strong oil and gas sector, to stimulate the non-oil sector through multi-trillion-dollar spending. This is part of Saudi’s Vision 2030 program which will see the Public Investment Fund injecting over $40 billion a year into the local economy through 2025.

　　However, Saudi Arabia will have to improve its competitive edge if it wants to continue seeing demand increase across the key market in Asia. Due to the prevalence of the Delta variant of Covid causing several countries to introduce stricter restrictions as well as cheaper competitors in the region, Saudi Arabia is finding it hard to maintain its appeal in the Asian market.

　　Further, as the U.S. and Russia offer more competitive oil prices, Saudi Arabian oil is looking less attractive.

　　Aramco has increased its Arab Medium and Heavy grades by around 20 and 30 cents a barrel, at the same time as the U.S. lowers the price of its similar Mars oil, and Russia takes the same approach with its Urals. This could drive buyers away unless Aramco responds to regular changes in demand levels across the region with fairer pricing.

　　As Aramco sees a positive trend for annual profits, in line with increasing demand and strong oil prices, it will have to balance these expectations with the ongoing volatility of the oil market in a world still affected by Covid and with companies pushing for greater competition while the oil market is still strong.

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