據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)1月3日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國能源信息署 (EIA) 在其 12 月短期能源展望 (STEO) 中預(yù)測(cè)，美國干天然氣產(chǎn)量將從2021年10月的951億立方英尺/天增至2022年12月的975億立方英尺/天，創(chuàng)歷史新高。此前的月度紀(jì)錄是在2019年11月創(chuàng)下的972億立方英尺/天。

2020年初，與疫情相關(guān)的需求下降導(dǎo)致了相應(yīng)的天然氣價(jià)格下降和鉆井量減少。因此，2020年5月，天然氣月度產(chǎn)量降至873億立方英尺/天的低點(diǎn)。從那時(shí)起，美國的干天然氣產(chǎn)量總體上呈上升趨勢(shì)，2021年2月有一個(gè)短暫的例外，當(dāng)時(shí)冬季天氣大大減少了得克薩斯州的天然氣產(chǎn)量。

美國天然氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)包括天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆井活動(dòng)的預(yù)期產(chǎn)量以及與原油生產(chǎn)（伴生氣）相關(guān)的天然氣產(chǎn)量。根據(jù)在《鉆井產(chǎn)能報(bào)告》中編制的指標(biāo)，在海恩斯維爾地區(qū)（主要在得克薩斯州和路易斯安那州）和阿巴拉契亞盆地（主要在賓夕法尼亞州和西弗吉尼亞州），鉆井活動(dòng)的增加和單井產(chǎn)量的增加導(dǎo)致近幾個(gè)月來天然氣產(chǎn)量增加。伴生天然氣產(chǎn)量也有所增加，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)商已經(jīng)完成了之前已鉆探但尚未完成的油井（DUC井）。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司的數(shù)據(jù)，2019年和2020年上半年，主要在含天然氣地層中鉆探的天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量減少。到2020年8月底，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)數(shù)量已經(jīng)下降到68臺(tái)，這是貝克休斯可以追溯到1987年數(shù)據(jù)系列中最少的。自2021年11月中旬以來，天然氣導(dǎo)向鉆機(jī)的數(shù)量已增至102臺(tái)。鉆機(jī)數(shù)量被視為新鉆井的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)，但鉆井效率（每臺(tái)鉆機(jī)可鉆新井的數(shù)量）和新井產(chǎn)量的增加使鉆機(jī)數(shù)量和最終產(chǎn)量之間的關(guān)系變得復(fù)雜。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA – USA WILL ESTABLISH NEW MonTHLY NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN 2022

In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will increase from 95.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October 2021 to 97.5 Bcf/d by December 2022, a new record high. The previous monthly record of 97.2 Bcf/d was set in November 2019.

In early 2020, COVID-19-associated declines in demand resulted in a corresponding natural gas price decrease and reduced drilling. As a result, monthly natural gas production declined to a low of 87.3 Bcf/d in May 2020. Dry natural gas production in the United States has generally risen since then, with a brief exception in February 2021, when winter weather substantially reduced natural gas production in Texas.

The forecast for U.S. natural gas production growth includes expected output from natural gas-directed drilling activity as well as natural gas production associated with crude oil production (associated gas). In both the Haynesville region (mainly in Texas and Louisiana) and the Appalachia Basin (mainly in Pennsylvania and West Virginia), increased drilling activity and greater output per well have led to more natural gas production in recent months, according to metrics compiled in our Drilling Productivity Report. Associated natural gas production has also increased as producers have completed wells that were previously drilled but uncompleted (DUC wells).

The number of natural gas-directed rigs—rigs drilled primarily in natural gas-bearing formations—decreased throughout 2019 and the first half of 2020, based on data from the Baker Hughes Company. By late August 2020, the natural gas-directed rig count had fallen to 68 rigs, the fewest in Baker Hughes’s data series, which dates back to 1987. The number of natural gas-directed rigs has since increased to 102 in mid-November 2021. Rig counts are considered a leading indicator of newly drilled wells, but increases in drilling efficiency (the number of new wells each rig can drill) and new-well production have complicated the relationship between rig counts and eventual production.

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