今年美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商將遭受超過100億美元的衍生物對(duì)沖損失  

勘探和生產(chǎn)公司通常使用衍生物對(duì)沖來限制現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，確保運(yùn)營資金 

今年42%的美國運(yùn)營商有預(yù)估產(chǎn)量在WTI原油均價(jià)55美元時(shí)產(chǎn)生對(duì)沖

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究顯示，如果油價(jià)維持在每桶100美元左右，今年美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商將遭受超過100億美元的衍生物對(duì)沖損失。許多頁巖油運(yùn)營商通過衍生物對(duì)沖來抵消風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口，幫助他們更有效地籌集運(yùn)營資金。那些去年在較低價(jià)格進(jìn)行對(duì)沖的投資者將遭受重大相關(guān)損失，因?yàn)樗麄兊暮霞s意味著他們無法從天價(jià)中獲利。

盡管有這些對(duì)沖損失，但美國陸上勘探和生產(chǎn)公司在本財(cái)報(bào)季普遍報(bào)告了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流和凈利潤。根據(jù)目前的高油價(jià)，這些運(yùn)營商正在調(diào)整他們的戰(zhàn)略，并就今年下半年和2023年的合同進(jìn)行談判，因此，如果明年油價(jià)下跌，這些靈活的勘探和生產(chǎn)公司將能夠獲得資金，并可能擁有更強(qiáng)勁的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。 

由于預(yù)計(jì)到這些套期保值措施會(huì)帶來巨大的負(fù)面影響，頁巖油運(yùn)營商在今年上半年采取了一致行動(dòng)，降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口，限制對(duì)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的影響。

許多頁巖油運(yùn)營商已經(jīng)成功地商定了2023年合約的更高上限，根據(jù)目前報(bào)告的對(duì)沖活動(dòng)，即使在原油價(jià)格為每桶100美元的情況下，虧損總額也將僅為30億美元，比今年大幅下降。以每桶85美元計(jì)算，對(duì)沖損失將達(dá)到15億美元；如果油價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌至65美元，對(duì)沖活動(dòng)將成為運(yùn)營商的凈收益。

勘探和生產(chǎn)公司通常會(huì)使用衍生物對(duì)沖來限制現(xiàn)金流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，確保運(yùn)營資金。然而，大宗商品衍生物對(duì)沖并不是運(yùn)營商使用的唯一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略。Rystad分析研究了美國28家輕質(zhì)致密油（LTO）生產(chǎn)商，他們預(yù)測的今年石油產(chǎn)量占美國頁巖油預(yù)計(jì)總產(chǎn)量的近40%。其中，21家運(yùn)營商詳細(xì)列出了截至8月份的今年對(duì)沖頭寸。這28家輕質(zhì)致密油生產(chǎn)商涵蓋了該行業(yè)的所有公開對(duì)沖活動(dòng)，因?yàn)榇笮推髽I(yè)不會(huì)將衍生物對(duì)沖作為一種融資策略，而私人運(yùn)營商也不會(huì)公開披露自己的對(duì)沖交易。  

Rystad副總裁Alisa Lukash說：“面對(duì)巨額虧損，運(yùn)營商已瘋狂地調(diào)整了他們今明兩年的對(duì)沖策略，以盡量減少損失。因此，我們可能還沒有看到該行業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流峰值，考慮到最近幾周飆升的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告，這很難讓人相信。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Faces More Than $10 Billion In Hedging Losses

·     U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year.

·     E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations.

·     Rystad: operators currently have 42% of their total guided and estimated oil output for 2022 hedged at a WTI average floor of $55 per barrel.

U.S. shale oil producers are in line to suffer more than $10 billion in derivative hedging losses this year if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy research shows. Many shale operators offset their risk exposure through derivative hedging, helping them to raise capital for operations more efficiently. Those who hedged at lower prices last year are in line to suffer significant associated losses as their contracts mean they cannot capitalize on sky-high prices.

Despite these hedging losses, record-high cash flow and net income have been widely reported by US onshore exploration and production (E&P) companies this earnings season. These operators are now adapting their strategies and negotiating contracts for the second half of 2022 and 2023 based on current high prices, so if oil prices fall next year, these agile E&Ps will be able to capitalize and will likely boast even stronger financials.

Anticipating the significant negative impact of these hedges, shale operators made a concerted effort in the first half of this year to lower their exposure and limit the impact on their balance sheets.

Many operators have successfully negotiated higher ceilings for 2023 contracts and based on current reported hedging activity for next year, even at a crude price of $100 per barrel, losses would total just $3 billion, a significant drop from this year. At $85 per barrel, hedged losses would total $1.5 billion; if it fell further to $65, hedging activity would be a net earner for operators.

E&Ps typically employ derivative hedging to limit cash flow risks and secure funding for operations. However, commodity derivative hedging is not the only risk management strategy operators use. Rystad Energy’s analysis looked at a peer group of 28 US light tight oil (LTO) producers, whose collective guided 2022 oil production accounts for close to 40% of the expected US shale total. Of this group, 21 operators have detailed their 2022 hedging positions as of August. The group includes all public hedging activity in the sector as supermajors do not employ derivative hedging as a funding strategy, and private operators do not disclose their hedges publicly.

“With huge losses on the table, operators have been frantically adapting their hedging strategies to minimize losses this year and next. As a result, we may not have seen peak cash flow in the industry yet, which is hard to believe given the soaring financials reported in recent weeks,” says Rystad Energy vice president Alisa Lukash.