據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2023年1月30日多哈報(bào)道，一項(xiàng)新的研究顯示，到2050年，全球能源需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)22%，而天然氣在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中所占的份額將從目前的23%上升至26%。

在赤道幾內(nèi)亞礦業(yè)和碳?xì)浠衔锊块L(zhǎng)加布里埃爾·利馬的見證下，天然氣出口國(guó)論壇(GECF)發(fā)布了最新版的《2050年全球天然氣展望》報(bào)告。

主要研究結(jié)果顯示，到2050年，全球GDP將翻一番以上，從目前的95萬億美元增加到210萬億美元，到2050年全球人口數(shù)量將增加18億，其中大部分增加將發(fā)生在非洲和亞太地區(qū)。

此外，新研究表示，到2050年天然氣供應(yīng)將增加36%，天然氣貿(mào)易將擴(kuò)大三分之一以上，以液化天然氣為首，到2026年前將超過管道天然氣貿(mào)易，預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)所需的上游投資將達(dá)到9.7萬億美元。

利馬說：“多年來，GECF《2050年全球天然氣展望》報(bào)告已成為天然氣行業(yè)、政府、大學(xué)等學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)和公眾的重要咨詢工具，這讓我向GECF整個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)表示祝賀，他們?yōu)檫@一咨詢和管理工具的新版本而辛勤工作。”

GECF秘書長(zhǎng)穆罕默德·哈默爾強(qiáng)調(diào)，在改善空氣質(zhì)量和減少溫室氣體排放的同時(shí)，需要所有的能源和技術(shù)來滿足世界日益增長(zhǎng)的能源需求。

哈默爾說：“不確定性從未如此之大，挑戰(zhàn)從未如此之深。然而，更清楚、更關(guān)鍵的是能源的三難困境：如何確保在短期到長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)建立一個(gè)安全、負(fù)擔(dān)得起、可持續(xù)的能源系統(tǒng)？ 應(yīng)該采取什么步驟來確保能源可用于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展？發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的同時(shí)如何保護(hù)環(huán)境？”

最新版的《2050年全球天然氣展望》報(bào)告旨在通過研究全球和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景、能源需求和供應(yīng)、天然氣貿(mào)易和投資、政策影響、技術(shù)發(fā)展和各種其他驅(qū)動(dòng)因素來回答這些緊迫的問題。

與此同時(shí)，新開發(fā)的替代能源方案“能源可持續(xù)方案”和“能源加速脫碳方案”分別考慮了結(jié)束非洲能源貧困和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，以及加快全球脫碳的可能途徑。

李峻 編譯自 阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Natural gas share of energy mix will rise to 26% in 2050: GECF

The energy demand is expected to rise 22 per cent by 2050 and the natural gas’ share in the energy mix will go from 23 per cent today to 26 per cent in 2050, according to a new study.

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) launched the latest edition of its annual Global Gas Outlook 2050 (Outlook), in the presence of the 2023 President of the GECF, Gabriel M Obiang Lima, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Equatorial Guinea.

The key findings show that by 2050 that the Global GDP will more than double, from $95 trillion today to $210 trillion in real terms and the population growth will see 1.8 billion additional people in 2050 with most of this rise taking place in Africa and the Asia Pacific.

Further, the saudy said the natural gas supply will increase by 36 per cent, the natural gas trade will expand by more than a third, led by LNG, which will overtake pipeline trade by 2026 and the upstream investment required over the forecast period is a hefty $9.7 trillion.

Lima said: “The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050, has become over the years an essential consultation tool for the natural gas industry, governments, academic institutions such as universities and for the general public, which makes me congratulate the entire GECF team that has worked for the edition of this consultation and management tool.”

Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, emphasised that all energy sources and technologies will be required to satisfy the world’s growing energy needs, while improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Hamel said: “The uncertainties have never been so large, and the challenges so profound. What is nevertheless clearer, and more crucial, is the energy trilemma: how to ensure a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy system over the short- to long-term? What steps should be taken to ensure that energy is available for socio-economic development, while concurrently protecting the environment?”

The Outlook seeks to answer these pressing questions by examining the global and regional economic growth prospects, demand and supply of energy, natural gas trade and investment, the effects of policies, technological developments, and various other drivers.

Meanwhile, the two newly-developed alternative energy scenarios of Energy Sustainability Scenario and Accelerated Energy Decarbonisation Scenario consider ending energy poverty and promoting economic growth in Africa, and possible pathways for faster global decarbonisation, respectively